FAO's April 2011 issue of the Rice Market Monitor is lowering by 2 million tonnes the estimated world paddy production in 2010 mainly on account of a worsened outlook in India. At the new forecasted level of 699 million tonnes (466 million tonnes, in milled rice basis), global rice output would be 2.4 percent larger than in 2009 and a new record, a positive outcome given the many setbacks endured by farmers over the season, amid a back-to-back manifestation of el Niño and la Niña weather anomalies.

From a regional perspective, much of the season 16 million tonne expansion would arise from output recoveries in Asia as well as gains in North America, Africa, Oceania and Europe, more than compensating for declines in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Although very preliminary, FAO’s first forecast of world paddy production in 2011 portends a 3 percent increase from the 2010 season to 720 million tonnes (480 million tonnes, milled basis). This rather buoyant outlook relies on expectations of improved weather conditions, as the effects of La Niña look set to dissipate in the next few months.

Governments are also maintaining their support to the sector, in a bid to contain food inflation and secure long-run supplies. The bulk of the increase is again expected to stem from good performances in Asia, with output also anticipated to increase in Europe, Oceania and Latin America and the Caribbean.