©William G. Moseley
The global food system is in crisis. Rising transportation costs, COVID-related supply chain disruptions, and war associated grain export shortfalls have rattled our trade-based food security paradigm over the past two years. Crises, especially protracted ones, can be moments of change. While entrenched corporate and institutional interests will do everything in their power to maintain the status quo, the global food system may be on the cusp of a major shift - and it could be a change for the better if we manage it smartly.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has once again shaken the global food system. Collectively these two countries account for 29 percent of wheat exports and 19 percent of corn exports (not including trade within the European Union common market). Russia and Belarus are also major exporters of inorganic fertilizers. The current crisis creates a particular problem for those nations which are major importers of grain from the Black Sea region. This war related food crisis also builds on the two-year covid-19 pandemic that has repeatedly resulted in supply chain disruptions and food insecurity.
The world has endured a number of food crises in the past and each time the key players have doubled down on making the system more efficient. Examples include the industrial food production methods introduced to the Global South during the first Green Revolution in the 1960s and 1970s, the emphasis on specialization and trade as part of neoliberal economic reform in the 1980s and 1990s, and the incorporation of smallhold farmers into corporate dominated supply chains as central to the New Green Revolution for Africa. Unfortunately, at each turn, policymakers and corporate actors have created a food system that is more vulnerable to disruptions due to its energy intensity and dependence on long distance trade.
Globalization, including a globalized food system, is predicated on energy intensive production methods and relatively cheap and efficient transit and trade. Due to rising energy costs and persistent supply chain problems, some are now writing about the end of globalization and I suggest that this prediction also applies to the global food system. While these business-oriented commentators see the end of globalization as problematic, a rebalancing of the global food system based on a different food security paradigm could have many upsides, including a system that is more sustainable, resilient to shocks, and people-centered.
To be clear, many will resist change as the current system is highly concentrated in the hands of a few corporate actors and dependent on a few surplus producing countries. These actors and places will not relinquish their privileged positions easily. I also understand that governments’ national interests (including those of my own country), long standing consensus in some segments of the scientific community around productionist approaches to addressing food insecurity, and path dependence (or investments in the existing approach) are major road roadblocks to change. But transformation may occur more easily if we invest smartly in the future.
While the global community must attend to the consequences of the immediate crisis by insuring that adequate food reaches the hungry, it must also make investments that will pave the way for a more sustainable and less vulnerable food system to emerge. We should start by fostering a food system that is less fossil fuel intensive so that it is less vulnerable to energy price fluctuations and disruptions.
We know how to produce healthier food using less fossil fuel energy. The science of agroecology leverages ecological interactions between crops, crops and insects, and crops and soil, to manage pests, maintain soil fertility and produce more food. It’s relevance to our current predicament is that is not based on fossil fuel-based inputs (fertilizers and pesticides) whose supply may be disrupted or costs soar when energy prices rise. While the field of agroecology has been around for decades, and has more recently gained acceptance within United Nations’ organizations and some governments, substantial investments are needed for its insights and practices to become more widespread, both on the ground and within the scientific community. A good place to start might be the establishment of the new CGIAR research center that focuses on agroecology.
We also need a more decentralized global food system that is not as dependent on a few big exporting countries and firms. Some level of redundancy is needed if food systems are to be more resilient in the face of disruptions. For example, while it might be most efficient for Botswana to export diamonds and import 90% of its food in good times, this also places the country in a highly vulnerable position when there are disruptions. As such, in the words of many financial advisors, Botswana ought to consider rebalancing its food portfolio and producing more food at home in order to manage risk (and cut down on transportation costs).
A transformation of the global food system will not come easily, but the current stacked crises - a war in one of the world’s major breadbaskets on top of two years of pandemic related supply chain disruptions – suggest that we are in a pivotal moment. Imagining a different future and investing in a new food security paradigm may allow us to make a transition to a food system that is more resilient and sustainable, an outcome that would be better for people and the planet.
William G. Moseley is DeWitt Wallace Professor of Geography, and Director of the Program for Food, Agriculture & Society, at Macalester College in Saint Paul, MN USA. He serves on the UN High Level Panel of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition (HLPE). He may be found on twitter @WilliamGMoseley
Image description: A grain merchant in Cairo, Egypt in March 2022 where soaring wheat prices are a major problem for this import dependent country. Photo by William G. Moseley.
The views and opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of CFS nor its HLPE.
