During 2021 and 2022, global food and fertilizer prices spiked due to several overlapping factors. Demand rose as the world economy emerged from the COVID-19 recession; global supply chains suffered major disruptions associated with the uneven recovery; and the outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine—both key food and fertilizer producers—generated yet another shock.

Spiking fertilizer prices raised fears that fertilizer application would drop around the world, leading to lower crop production, higher food prices, and greater food insecurity. While many problems linger, the worst fears have not come to pass. International food and fertilizer prices remain somewhat elevated compared to historical averages, but receded after peaking in April 2022, with prices nearing their pre-pandemic levels (Figure 1).