Reference Date: 24-June-2026

Cereal production affected by ongoing conflict, population displacement and climate shocks

In northern and central regions, planting of the 2026 second season maize crop was completed last January, while in southern provinces it concluded by end ‑ March, under generally favourable weather conditions. Planting of the 2026 main maize season started in June in northern areas and is expected to start in July in central regions. Since the escalation of conflict in eastern provinces in late January 2025, widespread displacement of people and restricted access to fields have severely disrupted agricultural activities. As a result, the area planted with the 2026 main season maize crop is estimated to be below the five ‑ year average. In addition, anticipated El Niño conditions are likely to affect crop development, with forecasts pointing to below ‑ average rainfall amounts between June and October.

Prices of maize and imported rice at high levels in 2026

Prices of locally produced maize and imported rice have remained elevated since January 2025, reflecting tight market supply due to reduced imports and high transport costs associated with the ongoing conflict. At the same time, broader economic pressures, including declining household incomes driven by limited livelihood opportunities and market disruptions, have further weakened purchasing power. Persistently high food prices, rising faster than wages and daily labour rates, continue to erode access to food, particularly in urban areas where most households rely on markets.

Over 26.5 million people projected to be severely acute food insecure in 2026

According to the May 2026 Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, about 26.5 million people (23 percent of the analysed population) were estimated to face acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) between January and June 2026. This includes 3.6 million people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), mainly concentrated in North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri and Tanganyika provinces, which together account for approximately 9.9 million people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or above.

On the other hand, the situation is expected to deteriorate further due to the ongoing Ebola virus disease outbreak, particularly in Ituri Province, the epicentre, and in North Kivu.

The conflict remains a key driver of acute food insecurity, causing large-scale displacement and severe disruption to agricultural production and markets. As of February 2026, about 6.5 million people were displaced and around 604 000 people were refugees, placing the country among the largest internal displacement crises at global level. In addition, the ongoing Ebola outbreak poses further risks to food security by straining health systems and livelihoods.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .