Reference Date: 27-August-2026

Planting of 2026 cereal crops is nearing completion

Planting operations of the 2026 maize, millet and sorghum crops were completed last July, while planting of the 2026 rice crop is ongoing and is expected to conclude by the end of August. The rainy season, which typically extends from May to September, was characterized by a generally timely onset and near‑average cumulative precipitation amounts through early August, supporting planting operations and the establishment of early‑planted crops in most producing regions. However, these favourable seasonal totals masked periods of early‑season dryness and an erratic distribution of rains that affected some central and southern areas, where replanting was required.

According to the latest seasonal weather forecast update by the AGRHYMET Regional Climate Centre for West Africa and the Sahel (AGRHYMET RCC ‑ WAS) , near- to above‑average cumulative rainfall amounts are expected between August and October 2026 in eastern areas, likely supporting crop development. In most other producing regions, below‑average cumulative precipitation amounts are forecast, which could negatively affect crop yields.

Conflict continues to constrain farmers’ access to their fields in several areas across the country, likely resulting in localized production shortfalls.

Access to agricultural inputs has been constrained by shortages and high prices. A blockade imposed by non‑state armed groups on fuel and other goods entering Bamako severely constrained farmers’ access to inputs during the critical early stages of the main agricultural season. Fertilizer availability has been curtailed, with available stocks currently covering only 22 percent of national requirements. In addition, high prices may further constrain fertilizer use, with potential negative effects on crop yields. Prices of urea, NPK and DAP increased by 19, 16 and 8 percent, respectively, between February and March 2026.

Cereal output in 2025 estimated at above‑average level

The 2025 aggregate cereal production is officially estimated at 11.6 million tonnes, about 15 percent above the five‑year average, reflecting generally favourable weather conditions. However, civil insecurity continued to disrupt agricultural activities, particularly in parts of the Ségou, Mopti, San, Tombouctou and Gao regions, which, combined with rainfall deficits and flooding, resulted in localized production shortfalls. In addition, limited access to fertilizers constrained production in some areas.

Prices of coarse grains below year‑earlier levels in July 2026

Wholesale prices of locally produced maize and sorghum followed mixed trends between April and July 2026, while wholesale prices of local millet remained generally stable, except in a few markets where declines of up to 15 percent were reported. Prices of coarse grains in July 2026 were 10 to 30 percent lower year‑on‑year in monitored markets across the country, supported by the above‑average 2025 cereal harvest. However, in markets of conflict‑affected Gao and Tombouctou regions, prices were significantly higher than in other monitored markets, reflecting supply constraints linked to disrupted trade flows and increased reliance of households on market purchases due to low food stocks.

About 1.56 million people estimated to be severely acute food insecure between June and August 2026

According to the latest Cadre Harmonisé  (CH) analysis , about 1.56 million people are estimated to face severe acute food insecurity (CH Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) during the June to August 2026 lean season, including nearly 57 000 people in CH Phase 4 (Emergency). This represents a slight increase from the 1.52 million people estimated to be in CH Phase 3 and above during the same period in 2025.

The ongoing conflict remains the key driver of acute food insecurity. Escalating violence in recent months has severely disrupted livelihoods and markets, particularly in the Kidal and Ménaka regions. Crop and livestock production have been severely constrained by insecurity, which has limited access to land, pastures and water points, disrupted transhumance routes, and restricted access to markets. Furthermore, attacks by non‑state armed groups along key transport corridors have disrupted the supply of fuel and food commodities, contributing to high transport costs and elevated food prices in some localities. Conflict‑related disruptions to economic activities, compounded by fuel shortages and the domestic electricity crisis, have constrained livelihoods and incomes, eroding purchasing power and reducing households’ access to food.

As of September 2025, about 415 000 people were internally displaced, while nearly 191 000 refugees were hosted in the country as of end July 2026, more than twice the number recorded in July 2024, mainly from Burkina Faso and the Niger. Displaced populations rely heavily on support from host communities and humanitarian assistance to meet their food needs. Nevertheless, funding shortfalls, with the 2026 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan currently only funded at about 22 percent, as well as access restrictions, continue to severely constrain the delivery of humanitarian assistance, increasing the vulnerability of populations in need.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring

https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Cadre Harmonisé (CH) https://www.cadreharmonise.org/ .