Reference Date: 14-June-2023
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
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Below‑average 2022 cereal production forecast
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Cereal exports forecast to increase
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Prices of rice at record high in May
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Below‑average 2022 cereal output forecast
The 2022 cropping season will finalize in late June following the completion of the secondary crop harvests. The aggregate 2022 paddy production is forecast at 24.7 million tonnes, about 8 percent below the five year average. Despite a near average area planted, the poor performance is attributed to low yields as farmers faced challenges in accessing agricultural inputs, particularly agrochemicals, due to reduced availability and high prices. The aggregate 2022 maize production is estimated at a near average level of 2.1 million tonnes, 12 percent less the previous year. The area planted reached an above average level driven by robust export demand and remunerative domestic prices. However, constrained access to agricultural inputs and below average precipitation amounts in the key maize producing northern areas resulted in the lowest average yields since 2015.
Cereal production prospects for 2023 main crops, currently being planted and for harvest at the end of the year, are uncertain. Although the high cereal prices may encourage farmers to cultivate an above average area, shortages and elevated prices of agricultural inputs are likely to persist, potentially curtailing crop yields.
Cereal exports in 2023/24 forecast at above‑average level
Rice exports in calendar year 2023 are forecast at 2.4 million tonnes, up 150 000 tonnes from the 2022 estimated volume. The government has implemented a measure that mandates exporters to convert 65 percent of their export earnings into kyat at the reference rate set by the Central Bank of Myanmar, which is on average 35 percent lower than the market exchange rate. Exports of maize are forecast at 1.7 million tonnes, 10 percent above the average, reflecting strong demand from neighbouring countries, including China (mainland) and Thailand.
Prices of rice at record high levels
Domestic prices of “Emata” rice, a widely consumed quality, have steadily increased since January 2022 and reached record highs in May 2023. The elevated level of prices reflects tight availability, due to below average 2022 output as well as to conflict related disruptions to markets. High prices of agricultural inputs and transport costs, also contributed to support prices. Overall, rice prices in May 2023 were more than double the already high levels of a year earlier.
Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS)
https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/
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FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool
https://fpma.fao.org/
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FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring
https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/
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Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC)
https://www.ipcinfo.org/
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