Reference Date: 29-March-2024

Paddy output forecast below average in 2023

Harvesting of the 2023 second paddy crop, accounting for about 15 percent of the annual output, is underway and will finalize in June 2024, while the main crop was harvested in December 2023. Aggregate paddy output is forecast at 25.7 million tonnes, remaining below the five‑year average for a second consecutive year, attributed to low yields associated with below‑average precipitation amounts during the cropping season. Some farmers continued facing challenges in accessing agrochemicals due to their high prices, albeit lower year‑on‑year. Harvesting of the 2023 second maize crop is expected to finalize in April 2024, while the main crop was harvested last January. The output is forecast at 2.2 million tonnes, 6 percent above the average, driven by large sowings due to remunerative maize domestic prices at planting time and strong demand for imports.

Above‑average cereal exports forecast in 2023/24

Total cereal exports in the 2023/24 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 3.9 million tonnes, 10 percent above average. Rice exports in calendar year 2024 are forecast at 2.2 million tonnes. Exports of maize are forecast at 1.6 million tonnes, about 5 percent above the average, following the bumper domestic output in 2023 and the strong demand for imports by neighbouring countries, including China (mainland) and Thailand.

Prices of rice at record level in February 2024

Wholesale prices of emata rice, a widely consumed variety, showed a rising trend since early 2022, reaching a record level in February 2024 and were 60 percent above their high levels a year earlier. The elevated prices mostly reflect tight market availability due to below‑average output in 2022 and 2023, and high prices of agricultural inputs and transport.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .