Reference Date: 18-September-2026

Paddy and maize production affected by El Niño‑related dry weather conditions

Harvesting of the 2026 minor season paddy crop is underway and output is forecast at slightly below‑average level. The start of the rainy season (temporada verde), which usually extends from to May to December, was marked by severe dry weather conditions across key producing Chiriquí, Panamá Este, Coclé and Veraguas regions. As paddy cultivation is mainly rain‑fed, water shortages delayed planting operations by about one month and hampered crop germination and early‑development stages, reducing yield prospects and discouraging planting intentions.

With the onset of El  Niño phenomenon in June, expectations of persisting drought conditions throughout the remainder of the year discouraged the planting of the main season paddy and maize crops, which started in August 2026, curtailing yield and production prospects. In addition, the complete removal of tariffs on imported maize from the US at the beginning of 2026, in line with the 2012 Trade Promotion Agreement (TPA) between the country and the United States of America, increased competition from imported maize grains and contributed to a reduction in the area sown, that is anticipated at below-average level. In addition, the removal of the Price Compensation Programme in April 2025 reduced direct support to paddy and maize producers and, together with high irrigation cost and rising prices of fuel and fertilizers, weighed on crop profitability. This limited incentives to expand plantings, particularly for smallholder farmers. As a result, the 2026 paddy and maize production is forecast at below -average level.

Cereal imports in 2025/26 estimated above average, due to tariff removal on maize imports

About 60 percent of the country’s consumption needs are usually covered though imports. Cereal imports in 2025/26 marketing year (July/June) are estimated at 902 000 tonnes, about 15   percent above the five‑year average.

Yellow maize imports accounted for about 80 percent of total cereal imports in 2025/26, driven by the steady demand from the feed industry. Maize imports in 2026 are estimated at about 30 percent above average, reflecting the suspension of tariffs on maize grains imported from the United States of America in January 2026, in accordance with the TPA. By contrast, wheat imports are estimated slightly below average, as ample carryover stocks from the large import volumes in 2025 are expected to cover a significant share of domestic consumption requirements.

Rice import restrictions remained in place between June and December 2026 under the Executive Decree No . 14, signed in July 2025 with the aim to shield domestic producers from international competition during the pre‑harvest and harvest periods. However, to address national rice supply shortages caused by adverse dry weather conditions, the government approved Decree N o. 9-26 in June 2026, allowing an additional tariff ‑free import quota of 35  653 tonnes to enter the country by September 15^th  2026.

Rice and maize prices stable year‑on‑year

Wholesale prices of rice remained stable since May 2025, in line with adequate market supply from the large output harvested in 2025. Maize prices remained unchanged between April and July 2026 and declined seasonally in August with the start of the minor season harvest. In August 2026, maize prices were about 6  percent below their level of the previous year, reflecting ample domestic availability supported by the 30  percent year‑on‑year increase in import during the first half of 2026.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .