Reference Date: 03-September-2025

Average rainfall amounts forecast to favour paddy yield prospects for main 2025 season

Plantings of the 2025 main paddy season crop are ongoing. Production prospects are generally favourable as rainfall amounts in the September to November period are forecast to be at average level, likely improving soil moisture conditions after localized dry spells in July in parts of the main producing provinces of Chiriquí, Veraguas and Coclé .

The harvest of the minor 2025 paddy crop started in August. Despite higher year‑on‑year wholesale prices at planting time, the planted area remained at near‑average level, as a result of high production costs. Although dry weather conditions affected crops in some areas of the main producing regions, yields are anticipated slightly to be above the five‑year average.

Harvesting of the minor 2025 season maize crop is currently underway. Output is preliminary forecast to be near average, as the positive impact on plantings of conducive soil moisture conditions in May and June 2025 was partially offset by moderate dryness in July, especially in the main producing areas of Los Santos, Herrera and Chiriquí provinces. Planting operations of the 2025 main season maize crop started in August and planted area is expected to be near average. The weather forecast for the September to November period points to average precipitation amounts, providing favourable prospects for yields.

Cereal imports in 2024/25 marketing year estimated near average

Cereal imports in the 2024/25 marketing year (August/July) are estimated to be at the near‑ average level of 791 000 tonnes. Imports of rice in 2024/25 fell below average, due to large carryover stocks from the 2024 outturn. By contrast, maize imports were about 5 percent above the average in 2024/25, following the temporary removal of the 40 percent yellow maize import tariffs in the second half of 2024 . The measure was driven by the rising demand from the feeding sector.

Prices of rice and maize higher year‑on‑year in July 2025

Wholesale prices of rice increased moderately from February to May 2025, in line with rising costs of production following the closure of the Price Compensation Plan in April 2025 and remained stable in June and July. Following the lift of price control mechanisms on rice in August 2024 , that was firstly introduced in 2014, price started strengthening and were about 25 percent higher year‑on‑year in August 2025.

Wholesale prices of maize started to decline seasonally in July 2025, with the start of the minor season harvest, after increasing in the previous two months. In July 2025, prices were slightly higher than 12 months before, reflecting a reduction in market availability due to low imports and domestic production.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .