Reference Date: 18-August-2025

Drought conditions and domestic unrest significantly affected cereal production in 2025

Cereal harvest was concluded in July 2025 and production is estimated at 1.2 million tonnes, more than 60 percent below the average, largely due to severe drought conditions and high temperatures. Cumulative rainfall amounts between November 2024 and May 2025 were more than 50 percent below the average, the lowest level recorded during the last ten years. According to remote sensing geospatial data, the Vegetation Health Index (VHI) in May 2025 indicated vegetation conditions well below average in key producing regions of Aleppo, Raqqa and Hassakeh. In addition, domestic unrest during the planting period, between November and December 2024, which hampered farmers’ access to fields, and high production costs, including fuel, seeds and fertilizers, contributed to a reduction in the area planted.

High wheat import requirements forecast for 2025/26 amid economic instability

Wheat import requirements for the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June) are preliminary forecast at 3 million tonnes, about 70 percent above the five‑year average, reflecting two consecutive years of below‑average output. While international financial restrictions were partially eased in May 2025, economic uncertainty, local currency fluctuations and domestic unrest raise challenges to securing foreign currency reserves required to buy key cereal commodities on international markets.

Domestic unrest, rising living cost and weak purchasing power worsen food insecurity in 2025

Food security has worsened since late 2024, due to domestic unrest, population displacements, local currency fluctuations, liquidity and cash availability issues, low availability of agricultural outputs, low crop productivity resulting in a decrease of income generated and affecting accessibility to food, limited livelihood opportunities and a sharp rise in the cost of living. According to Food Security Cluster, about 9.1 million people were projected to be acutely food insecure in 2024, including 5.4 million people at risk of hunger.

The Minimum Expenditure Basket (MEB), measuring cost of living, reached SYP 2.2 million in May 2025 before improving to 2 million in June. In comparison, the minimum wage increased from about SYP 280 000 in May to SYP 750 000/month in July following a 200 percent salary increase introduced by the Syrian Transition Government. Following the increase, the monthly wage would now cover about 37 percent of the food component in the MEB, underpinning households’ persistent low purchasing power. National average prices of wheat flour and rice increased moderately month‑on‑month in July 2025, but remained about 35 and 40 percent, respectively, lower than in the same month in 2024. The year‑on‑year significant decline was mainly driven by easing import restrictions, increasing food supply and removal of military checkpoints across the country, which reduced transportation costs.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .