Bangkok - Barring any major setback in the next few months, global rice production in 2008 is forecast to rise by 1.5 percent to 668 million tonnes.

Much of the expansion is expected in Asian countries, now forecast to gather some 605 million tonnes, 1.1 percent above the excellent 2007 production results. Sizable gains are foreseen in Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Viet Nam, while Japan and, especially, Myanmar may face a contraction.

Due to favourable growing conditions prevailing so far in Africa, production in the region is forecast to reach 23.7 million tonnes, 5 percent more than in 2007. Production in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is foreseen to stage a remarkable increase of about 8 percent, much of which concentrated in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Uruguay. In the rest of the world, production prospects point to some gains in the United States, while a decline is foreseen in Australia and the European Union (EU).

Rice trade
FAO’s forecast of global rice trade in 2008 now stands at 30.2 million tonnes, 4 percent below the 31.3 million tonnes traded in 2007, a reflection of the export curbs imposed by several exporting countries and of the high world prices prevailing since January, which have depressed import demand.

Much of the expected drop in world rice imports would arise from lower purchases by Asian countries, in particular Bangladesh, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen, more than compensating for larger deliveries to Iraq, the PDR of Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines and Sri Lanka.

Imports to Africa are also expected to fall, while they are unlikely to change much in LAC. By contrast, Australia, the EU and the United States are all expected to purchase more.

Much of the drop in world exports in 2008 can be attributed to the restrictive export policies implemented by several countries, in particular India, Egypt and, to a smaller extent, Viet Nam.


More information at:
http://www.fao.org/es/ESC/en/15/70/highlight_71.html