BASIC FACTS OF THE WORLD CEREAL SITUATION
|
|
1998/1999
|
1999/2000
|
2000/2001
|
2001/2002
|
2002/2003
forecast
|
Change
2002/03 over
2001/2002
|
|
WORLD PRODUCTION 1/
|
(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
|
(percentage)
|
|
Wheat
|
598.0
|
592.1
|
586.3
|
586.4
|
568.4
|
-3.1
|
|
Coarse grains
|
915.1
|
888.8
|
874.8
|
915.1
|
880.5
|
-3.8
|
|
Rice, milled
|
389.5
|
409.2
|
400.8
|
399.7
|
389.0
|
-2.7
|
|
(paddy)
|
(581.3)
|
(611.2)
|
(599.4)
|
(597.9)
|
(582.0)
|
-2.7
|
|
All cereals (incl. milled rice)
|
1 902.6
|
1 890.1
|
1 861.8
|
1 901.2
|
1 837.9
|
-3.3
|
|
Developing countries
|
1 043.3
|
1 040.6
|
1 007.8
|
1 024.6
|
1 004.5
|
-2.0
|
|
Developed countries
|
859.3
|
849.5
|
854.0
|
876.6
|
833.3
|
-4.9
|
|
WORLD TRADE 2/
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wheat
|
100.9
|
110.5
|
100.5
|
108.6
|
105.2
|
-3.1
|
|
Coarse grains
|
94.6
|
102.0
|
107.7
|
106.7
|
107.8
|
1.0
|
|
Rice (milled)
|
24.7
|
23.0
|
24.1
|
27.4
|
26.8
|
-2.1
|
|
All cereals
|
220.2
|
235.6
|
232.3
|
242.7
|
239.8
|
-1.2
|
|
of which: Food aid shipments 3/
|
11.3
|
11.2
|
9.4
|
10.0
|
|
|
|
WORLD UTILIZATION
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wheat
|
591.6
|
595.7
|
600.1
|
608.6
|
618.9
|
1.7
|
|
Coarse grains
|
900.1
|
899.1
|
910.8
|
926.0
|
923.1
|
-0.3
|
|
Rice (milled)
|
387.5
|
400.4
|
405.9
|
412.0
|
413.7
|
0.4
|
|
All cereals
|
1 879.1
|
1 895.2
|
1 916.8
|
1 946.6
|
1 955.7
|
0.5
|
|
Developing countries
|
1 132.7
|
1 157.5
|
1 165.7
|
1 180.8
|
1 186.1
|
0.4
|
|
Developed countries
|
746.5
|
737.7
|
751.1
|
765.8
|
769.6
|
0.5
|
|
Per Caput Food Use
|
(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . kg/year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .)
|
|
|
Developing countries
|
166.3
|
166.8
|
166.3
|
166.4
|
165.6
|
-0.5
|
|
Developed countries
|
132.9
|
132.7
|
133.4
|
133.2
|
133.0
|
-0.2
|
|
WORLD STOCKS 4/
|
(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .)
|
|
|
Wheat
|
259.5
|
253.9
|
240.4
|
217.9
|
169.8
|
-22.0
|
|
Coarse grains
|
266.6
|
259.3
|
225.9
|
210.7
|
172.5
|
-18.1
|
|
Rice (milled)
|
157.4
|
168.0
|
163.1
|
148.2
|
123.6
|
-16.6
|
|
All cereals
|
683.5
|
681.3
|
629.3
|
576.7
|
465.9
|
-19.2
|
|
Developing countries
|
512.4
|
516.6
|
469.1
|
414.5
|
342.2
|
-17.4
|
|
Developed countries
|
171.1
|
164.7
|
160.2
|
162.3
|
123.7
|
-23.8
|
|
EXPORT PRICES 5/
|
(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . US$/tonne . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
|
|
|
Rice (Thai, 100%, 2nd grade) 1/
|
315
|
253
|
207
|
177
|
197
|
11.3
|
|
Wheat (U.S. No.2 HRW)
|
120
|
112
|
128
|
127
|
171 6/
|
35.2 7/
|
|
Maize (U.S. No.2 Yellow)
|
95
|
91
|
86
|
90
|
108 6/
|
19.1 7/
|
|
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES 5/
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
From U.S. Gulf to Egypt
|
9.3
|
13.7
|
15.0
|
15.0
|
15.0 6/
|
0.0 7/
|
|
LOW-INCOME FOOD-DEFICIT COUNTRIES 8/
|
(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
|
|
|
Roots & tubers production 1/
|
424
|
437
|
448
|
442
|
446
|
1.0
|
|
Cereal production (milled rice) 1/
|
813
|
817
|
776
|
781
|
772
|
-1.1
|
|
Per caput production (kg.) 9/
|
220
|
217
|
204
|
203
|
198
|
-2.3
|
|
Cereal imports
|
74.0
|
75.5
|
73.1
|
77.8
|
77.8
|
0.0
|
|
of which: Food aid
|
8.5
|
7.6
|
8.3
|
8.5
|
|
|
|
Proportion of cereal import
|
( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
|
|
|
covered by food aid
|
11.5
|
10.1
|
11.4
|
10.9
|
|
|
Source: FAO Note: Totals
and percentages computed from unrounded data.
1/ Data refer to the calendar year
of the first year shown. 2/ For
wheat and coarse grains, trade refers to exports based
on the July/June marketing season. For rice, trade
refers to exports based on the calendar year of the
second year shown. 3/ July/June
shipments. 4/ Stock data are based
on an aggregate of individual country carryovers at the
end of national crop years and, therefore, do not
represent world stock levels at any point in time.
5/ July/June.
6/ Average of quotations for July
2002-January 2003. 7/ Change from
the corresponding period of the previous year, for
which figures are not shown. 8/
Food deficit countries with per caput income below the
level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility
for IDA assistance (i.e. US$1 445 in 2000).
9/ Including milled rice.
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