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Current Production and Crop Prospects
Position by Region
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Asia
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Far East: Aggregate cereal production in the
region decreased in 2002, entirely as a result of a
sharp reduction in the paddy crop, which more than
offset increased output of wheat and coarse grains.
FAO's latest forecast puts the region's
aggregate wheat crop at 250.7 million tonnes, about 2
percent up from 2001, while output of coarse grains
also rose by 2 percent to 214.4 million tonnes. By
contrast, and largely the result of erratic monsoon
rains, the region's paddy output fell by almost
16 million tonnes. The bulk of the decline was
accounted for by the world's two major producing
countries, i.e. China and India.
The outlook for the winter grain crops, planted in
September to December, to be harvested later this year,
is mixed. With above average or average rainfall during
recent months in the northern and eastern countries of
the region the outlook there is generally favourable,
while in the Indian sub-continent, prospects are less
favourable due to drier than normal weather.
In China, wheat production declined in
2002 for the third year in succession, to 89.3 million
tonnes (5 percent below 2001 and 17 percent below the
average of the past 5 years). The decline mostly
results from a further reduction in the area dedicated
to wheat production. The declining trend in wheat
plantings over the past few years is reported to have
continued again this year, with a further reduction
estimated in the winter wheat area for harvest this
summer. As a result, the preliminary production
forecast points to a reduction of some 3 percent in the
country's aggregate wheat output in 2003. In
India, below normal rainfall in late 2002 and early
2003 in many parts, and particularly the drought in
Rajasthan in the north-west and Orissa in the east,
have adversely effected the sowing and growth of the
Rabi winter wheat. The harvest is due to start from
March and output is tentatively forecast to be around
70 million tonnes, significantly below the 73.5 million
tonnes crop harvested in 2002. A similar weather
pattern with below normal rainfall during late 2002 was
observed in Pakistan. Consequently a decline in wheat
production from last year's above average 19.2
million tonnes is expected in 2003.
The latest estimate of China's 2002 coarse
grain crop (mostly maize) stands at some 135
million tonnes, slightly less than forecast in the
previous report but still 10 million tonnes up from the
previous year and above the average of the past five
years. In India, reflecting the failure of the monsoon
in key coarse grain producing states, the national
output of maize and other coarse grains is estimated at
28.4 million tonnes, 18 percent below that of the
previous year. The remaining countries of the region
gathered coarse grain harvests similar to or higher
than those of 2001.
The majority of the paddy growing states in
India have now completed the harvest of the main Kharif
(winter) crop. According to the official November
forecast, the crop was expected to be about 16 percent
smaller than in the previous year, owing to erratic
monsoon rains. Since then, the brisk pace of Government
procurement compared to last year and abundant supplies
arriving onto the market place have raised some doubts
over the extent of the shortfall. At the same time,
expectations that the Kharif losses could be recovered
through an expansion of the secondary irrigated
(summer) Rabi crop have evaporated, since official
sources have reported delays of over one month in the
opening of the Rabi season as reservoir levels in some
major growing areas were critically low. FAO now
forecasts the country's aggregate 2002 output at
120 million tonnes (80 million tonnes milled
equivalent), 17 million tonnes below the previous
season and 5 million tonnes less than previously
anticipated. This would be the lowest output since the
1995 drought-afflicted season. Basmati rice production,
of particular relevance to the high quality export
markets, was particularly affected, with its decline
estimated at 30 percent.
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Wheat
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Coarse grains
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Rice (paddy)
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Total
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2001
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2002 estim.
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2001
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2002
estim.
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2001
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2002
estim.
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2001
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2002
estim.
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( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . )
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Asia
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245.2
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250.7
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209.8
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214.2
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543.5
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528.0
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998.5
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992.9
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Africa
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17.8
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16.0
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82.5
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78.7
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17.4
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18.1
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117.7
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112.7
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Central America
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3.3
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3.3
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30.7
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29.3
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2.3
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2.3
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36.2
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34.9
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South America
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21.2
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18.7
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71.3
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64.8
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20.0
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19.5
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112.6
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103.0
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North America
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73.8
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59.7
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285.1
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264.9
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9.8
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9.6
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368.7
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334.2
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Europe
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200.7
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209.7
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223.5
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221.1
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3.2
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3.3
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427.3
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434.1
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Oceania
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24.3
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10.3
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12.3
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7.5
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1.8
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1.3
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38.4
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19.1
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WORLD
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586.4
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568.4
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915.1
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880.5
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597.9
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582.0
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2 099.4
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2 031.0
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(400)1/
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(389)1/
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(1 901)2/
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(1 838)2/
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Developing countries
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262.3
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261.3
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381.2
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372.3
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571.5
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556.3
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1 215.0
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1 190.0
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Developed countries
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324.1
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307.1
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533.9
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508.2
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26.4
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25.7
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884.4
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841.0
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Source: FAO 1/ Milled rice.
2/ Including milled rice. Note:
Totals computed from unrounded data.
In Cambodia, paddy production from the 2002 season is
officially forecast to drop by 18 percent to a six-year
low of 3.4 million tonnes, reflecting disruptive
weather patterns earlier in the season that sharply
depressed both plantings and yields.
The 2002 season is about to be concluded in China
(mainland) and sources in the country confirm that
paddy output could fall to a fourteen-year low of 175.7
million tonnes, 2 million tonnes less than in 2001. The
decline has coincided with changes in the cropping
pattern, which has seen a 4 percent expansion in the
main, 'intermediate' paddy crop this year,
while the early and late crops contracted by a combined
9 percent. These movements were largely policy-induced,
as pressure on farmers to grow rice has softened in
several provinces, with the complete removal of
protective prices on early rice and in some provinces,
also on late rice. The 2002 rice output in the Chinese
Province of Taiwan is expected to remain close to the
previous year's low level. Water shortages were
recently reported, which might prompt a contraction of
the main crop, now at the planting stage.
In Japan, the first estimate of the country's
2002 paddy production by the Ministry of Agriculture
was set at 11.1 million tonnes, around 200 000
tonnes lower than in the previous season. The moderate
contraction is partly explained by unfavourable
weather, but also by the Government's
'gentan' policy, which aims to curtail
production through area cuts in response to faltering
domestic demand. With regard to the 2003 season, the
Government has targeted 1.06 million hectares, or 40
percent of the country's paddy capacity, for
set-aside, 50 000 hectares more than in 2002.
In the Republic of Korea, the official estimate for the
2002 crop has been revised downward slightly. The
revised figure of 6.7 million tonnes, which is only
slightly lower than the earlier FAO estimate, would
imply an 11 percent contraction from the previous year
and be the lowest output since 1995, owing to adverse
weather and policy measures designed to cut the
country's stock surplus.
The 2002 paddy season is soon to be concluded in
Myanmar. On account of an increase in the official
estimate for the 2001 crop, FAO has also marginally
raised its paddy forecast for 2002, to 21.9 million
tonnes, to keep it at about the same level as last
season. However, this would be less than the 23 million
tonnes targeted by the Government, as excessive
rainfall during the peak harvest period has likely
caused some losses.
The 2002 paddy harvest in Pakistan was completed in
November. A return to a regular pattern of monsoon
rainfall supported larger plantings and yields,
resulting in an estimated 14 percent recovery in paddy
production from the drought-hit level of 2001. The
current estimate of 6.6 million tonnes, however, would
still be short of the record crop gathered in 1999.
Harvesting of the main paddy crop in the Philippines is
expected to end by January. There is anticipation that
aggregate paddy production in 2002 may reach a record
level of 13.2 million tonnes, up by 1 percent from the
2001 bumper output. The foreseen production growth is
reported to have been fostered by the application of
better inputs and an expansion of irrigated fields,
despite below-normal rainfall in the latter months of
2002. However, as the dry spell is expected to linger
in the first half of the 2003, the final production
outcome could be less favourable than currently
anticipated.
In Thailand, the harvest of the main paddy crop is
progressing satisfactorily. Output this season is
expected to be about 25.8 million tonnes, 700 000
tonnes below the record produced in 2001, but still one
of the highest levels ever for the country. Cultivation
of Thailand's minor crop, which normally accounts
for 12 percent of total production, began in January
and planting is expected to be concluded by May. The
Government has targeted to purchase almost 9 million
tonnes of paddy under its 2002/03 paddy procurement
programme. Such a scheme is likely to boost this crop,
especially as intervention prices have been set at 35
percent above farmers' average production costs.
Official sources in Viet Nam have raised their 2002
paddy production estimate by 500 000 tonnes, to a
record 34.1 million tonnes, in spite of serious
flooding earlier in the season in the Mekong Delta (the
principal growing region). The favourable outcome
reflects high domestic prices, which contributed to an
estimated 4 percent expansion in total rice area and a
moderate rise of yields. Nonetheless, the Government,
in its drive to shift away from low quality rice
production, has recently announced further removals of
marginal lands from paddy cultivation, which will take
effect in the new season.
Among the countries situated in the southern hemisphere
and along the equatorial belt, Indonesia already
concluded its 2002 paddy season. Based on a more recent
assessment of the outcome, the Central Bureau of
Statistics has raised its estimate of the 2002 paddy
production by 800 000 tonnes to 51.6 million
tonnes, which would be 1.1 million tonnes more than in
the previous season and close to the 2002 record. A
moderate expansion in cultivated area and a marked
improvement in yields led to the increase. Meanwhile,
planting of the first of the 2003 paddy crops is well
underway in several parts of the archipelago. Under
Indonesia's concerted efforts to attain
self-sufficiency, the Government has set a paddy target
of 53 million tonnes for the new season.
The estimate of Sri Lanka's 2002 paddy output has
been revised upward by 6 percent, which would match the
record crops of 1999 and 2000. However, excessive
precipitation in the northern and eastern parts of the
country has caused some disruption to the early
maturation stage of the main (Maha) crop, which might
compromise the 2003 season.
Near East: Early indications for the 2003
wheat output in Afghanistan point to a likely
reduction after a strong recovery in production last
year, by 68 percent, to 2.7 million tonnes. Inadequate
precipitation is reported in the south and eastern
parts of the country. In the Islamic Republic of Iran,
growing conditions for the recently planted wheat and
barley crops for harvest in mid-2003 are favourable
after the early onset of rains and snowfall in most
parts of the country, and another good harvest is in
prospect. Output in 2002 rose to 12 million tonnes,
sharply up from the previous year's
drought-reduced crop. In Syria and Jordan, recent good
rains have improved prospects for the 2003 cereal crop
to be harvested in April/May. In Turkey, heavy rains
and snow received in the last month are expected to be
beneficial for the wheat crop, to be harvested from
June.
The 2002 paddy season is about to be concluded
in the Near East. The aggregate paddy output for these
countries for the 2002 season is now forecast to have
increased by about 23 percent, to a record 9.6 million
tonnes. This significant upturn reflects a sharp
improvement in irrigated water supplies compared with
the previous year and generally favourable growing
conditions in several major rice producing countries.
Leading the recovery, the Islamic Republic of
Iran's paddy output is projected to reach 2.7
million tonnes, up 500 000 tonnes from 2001. Large
to moderate production growth is also forecast by FAO
in Afghanistan, Iraq and Turkey.
CIS in Asia: The CIS countries in Asia produced
some 24.1 million tonnes of wheat in 2002
compared with 21.9 million tonnes in 2001. Kazakhstan
(the largest producer in the region) produced some 12.6
million tonnes followed by Uzbekistan 4.9 million
tonnes, Turkmenistan 2.2 million tonnes, Azerbaijan 1.9
million tonnes and the Kyrghyz Republic 1.3 million
tonnes. Wheat is the most important staple in the
region and the area planted to wheat has significantly
increased in the region in the past few years. A
similar or even larger output is foreseen for 2003,
assuming that the satisfactory levels of precipitation
so far this season continue until harvest. The region
produced some 4.8 million tonnes of coarse
grains in 2002, which is slightly below the 2001
harvest. This total includes some 2.8 million tonnes of
barley and 1.4 million tonnes of maize. In Uzbekistan,
the paddy harvest is now officially estimated at
around 140 000 tonnes, double the level of 2001
but almost 60 000 tonnes below the Government
target, since the increase in water availability failed
to trigger a sharp expansion of plantings. Output in
Turkmenistan also increased sharply.
Africa
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Northern Africa: The subregion's aggregate
production of wheat in 2002 is estimated at
about 11.7 million tonnes, almost 10 percent down from
2001, but close to the average of the past 5 years.
Production increased by some 6 percent in Egypt where
the crop is largely irrigated, reflecting an expansion
in plantings of almost 5 percent compared to 2001 and
higher than normal yields. A small increase in
production is reported for Morocco. In Algeria and
Tunisia, by contrast, delayed rains and dry conditions
during the growing season resulted in sharply reduced
outputs. Production of coarse grains in 2002 for
the subregion as a whole was slightly above average.
This is principally due to the satisfactory production
levels of maize in Egypt and barley in Morocco which
helped offset the low outputs of barley in Algeria and
Tunisia.
Planting of the 2003 winter wheat and coarse grain
crops has been virtually completed in the subregion.
Sowing was conducted under normal weather conditions in
Egypt, while in Tunisia conditions were rather dry. In
Morocco, by contrast, heavy rains and flooding in
mid-November are reported to have had an adverse affect
on the developing winter crops.
In Egypt, the 2002 paddy season is virtually
over, with the harvest underway in the last remaining
paddy areas in the south of the country. The estimate
of the crop remains at a record of over 6 million
tonnes, reflecting an officially estimated 15 percent
expansion in rice area.
Western Africa: Harvesting of coarse
grains is now underway. In the Sahel, a series of
joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Missions were fielded
in October to the nine CILSS member countries to review
the outcome of the 2002 cropping season. The aggregate
cereal production of the nine CILSS member countries
has been estimated by these missions at 11.3 million
tonnes, 3 percent below 2001 but 11 percent above the
average of the last five years. Below-average crops are
anticipated in Cape Verde, Guinea Bissau and
Mauritania. Near-average production is expected in
Chad, the Gambia, Mali and Senegal, while above-average
outputs are foreseen in Burkina-Faso and Niger. In the
coastal countries along the Gulf of Guinea, harvest
prospects are generally good in Benin, Nigeria and Togo
but are less favourable in Ghana, following
below-normal rains in September and October.
Almost all countries in Western Africa had completed
the harvest of their paddy crops by January.
Below-normal precipitation and continuing civil unrest
marred the 2002 season in several of them. A number of
revisions have been made to production estimates,
which, on balance, have left aggregate prospects for
the subregion unchanged. For instance, based on the
release of official estimates for the preceding season
and several recent FAO/WFP missions, output is seen to
expand in Benin, Ghana, Mauritania, Nigeria and Sierra
Leone but contract in Burkina Faso, Côte
d'Ivoire, Liberia, Mali and Senegal.
Central Africa: Harvesting of coarse
grains is underway in Cameroon and prospects are
favourable. In the Central African Republic, harvest
prospects are uncertain following erratic and below
average rains that affected crop development in some
regions.
Persistent insecurity in the Democratic Republic of
Congo has led to a fourth consecutive contraction in
paddy production, which is officially forecast
at 315 000 tonnes in 2002 - the lowest
output level in the past two decades.
Eastern Africa: Harvesting of the 2002
wheat crop is complete. The subregion 's
aggregate output is preliminarily estimated at 1.6
million tonnes, about 17 percent below the previous
year and 15 percent below the average of the past five
years. In Ethiopia, the wheat crop is estimated at 1.1
million tonnes, 22 percent down from the previous year,
reflecting erratic weather and insufficient rainfall
overall during the season. In the Sudan, wheat output
declined 18 percent to 247 000 tonnes.
Harvesting of the 2002/03 main season coarse
grains is completed in the subregion while the
secondary season's crops are being harvested,
with the exception of Ethiopia where the crop is about
to be planted. The 2002/03 aggregate coarse grains
output is provisionally forecast at 18 million tonnes,
18 percent below the good crop in the previous year and
8 percent below the average of the past five years. In
Ethiopia, late and erratic rains during the season
resulted in a 25 percent drop in coarse grains output,
from the good crop of 2001, to 5.6 million tonnes. In
Sudan, coarse grain production declined by nearly 30
percent from the previous year, mainly due to a
significant reduction in the area under irrigated
sorghum. This was largely an adjustment back to a
normal area after the unusually large expansion in
2001. In Eritrea, the 2002 coarse grains were affected
by a severe drought and output is estimated to have
declined by nearly 80 percent to just 44 000
tonnes. In Kenya, the 2002/03 maize output is forecast
at 2.3 million tonnes, about 16 percent below the
previous year's crop but slightly higher than
average. In Tanzania, despite some heavy rains and
flooding in parts, prospects for the 2003 secondary
season 'vuli' crop, now being harvested,
are favourable. In Uganda, the 2002 main season crop
was reduced as a result of population displacement and
dry weather. The outlook for the second crop, now being
harvested, is also unfavourable due to delayed rains.
In Somalia, the outlook for the secondary
'deyr' season crops, about to be harvested,
is favourable due to better distributed rains compared
to last year. The main 'gu' season crop in
southern Somalia, harvested last August/September, is
estimated at about 209 000 tonnes (80 000
tonnes sorghum and 129 000 tonnes maize), well
above the relatively poor crop in 2001.
Official estimates for 2002 paddy production
have been made available for the minor producing
countries of Kenya, Sudan and Rwanda. Output is
expected to rebound sharply in the latter two
countries, but to remain unchanged in Kenya.
Southern Africa: FAO's latest estimate of
the subregion's aggregate 2002 wheat crop
is 2.6 million tonnes, a decline of 10 percent from the
good level of the previous year but still average. In
South Africa, which accounts for three-quarters of the
subregion's production, the 2002 wheat output
decreased to 2.3 million tonnes, which is 7 percent
below the 2001 level. This is the result of a slight
reduction in plantings and lower yields in the major
producing Free State due to relatively high
temperatures during the cropping season. In Zimbabwe,
wheat production declined by 42 percent, to a poor
level of 160 000 tonnes, as a result of low
plantings and yields following land reform activities.
Prospects for the 2003 coarse grains are
uncertain. Abundant rains in the first half of January
provided relief to crops in areas previously affected
by dry weather, but cumulative precipitation since the
beginning of the season remained below average in most
of the subregion. The heavy rains of January also
resulted in floods and crop losses in parts. In South
Africa, the outlook for the main maize crop is
favourable so far. Following a prolonged dry spell in
November rains have been adequate in most of the maize
belt since December and only northern parts continue to
experience moisture deficit. Preliminary official
estimates point to an increase of 7 percent in the area
planted to maize, comprising an increase of 17 percent
in white maize plantings and a decline of 9 percent in
that of yellow maize. By contrast, prospects for this
year's crop are poor in Zimbabwe. Rains in the
second dekad of January relieved dryness in eastern
parts, but the main maize growing areas remained dry.
The outlook is unfavourable also due to reduced
plantings as a result of disruption in the commercial
sector and shortages of agricultural inputs. In
Mozambique and Malawi, widespread heavy rains around 10
January resulted in localized floods but overall
benefited crops, which were stressed by previous dry
weather. In Zambia, abundant rains in January improved
prospects for the 2003 maize crop in most growing areas
except in the extreme southern parts, where more
precipitation is are still needed. In Botswana,
prolonged dry conditions since the beginning of the
season have negatively affected crop prospects, mainly
sorghum. In Namibia, rains in January benefited
developing coarse grains affected by earlier dry
weather. In Lesotho, good rains were received in
January but yields are likely to have been adversely
affected by hail. Several current indicators point to a
moderate El Niño event, which should result in below
average rains in Southern Africa until March 2003. The
weather and crop situation needs to be closely
monitored in the coming weeks.
Latest estimates of the subregion's 2002 coarse
grain crop stand at 14.8 million tonnes, only slightly
higher than the previous year's below average
level. Production was sharply reduced in most countries
of the subregion, with the exception of South Africa,
Mozambique and minor producer Botswana.
The 2003 rice season is advancing in the major
producing countries of Madagascar and Mozambique, but
information regarding the state of these crops is
sparse. With regard to the 2002 season, a recent
FAO/WFP mission to Madagascar concluded that the rice
production may have reached 2.7 million tonnes,
300 000 tonnes higher than the prior forecast, and
similar the levels produced in the past two seasons.
Central America and the Caribbean
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Growing conditions are normal for the 2002/03 irrigated
wheat crop in the northwestern parts of Mexico.
Water reservoir levels are reported to be adequate.
Harvesting is due to start from April and early
forecasts indicate that 2003 output will likely be
somewhat less than last year's 3.3 million tonne
crop, largely as a result of a decrease in the area
planted, but should still remain about average.
Harvesting of the 2002/03 second season coarse
grain (mainly maize) is virtually completed in all
Central American countries while harvesting of the
third season crop ('apante') is about to
start in some countries. Average maize outputs are
provisionally estimated for Honduras and Guatemala
while production should be above average in El Salvador
and Nicaragua, particularly in the latter country where
a near record output has been collected. By contrast,
production has been low in Costa Rica. In aggregate,
production of maize in 2002 for these countries is
tentatively estimated at an about-average 2.7 million
tonnes, 8 percent up from 2001. In Mexico, an average
output of about 19 million tonnes in 2002 is
tentatively estimated. In the Caribbean, maize output
in the Dominican Republic is provisionally estimated at
an above-average level, largely reflecting favourable
weather conditions at planting and during the growing
season. In Cuba, despite damage caused to first season
crops by hurricane rains and winds (Hurricanes
'Isidore' and 'Lili' in late
September), a good maize crop was gathered. In Haiti,
maize output was below average, mainly as a result of
the poor outcome of the first season crops which were
affected by extremely dry weather at planting and
during the growing season.
As the 2002 rice season draws to a close in
Central America and the Caribbean, latest information
indicates that output in several countries is higher
than earlier expected. For instance, unofficial sources
in the Dominican Republic put paddy output at a record
740 000 tonnes, some 140 000 tonnes more than
earlier anticipated and up 9 percent from 2001.
Favourable growing conditions and high domestic support
prices have had a positive effect on both yields and
rice area. Similarly in Panama, the Government
anticipates a record paddy crop of 320 000 tonnes,
up 15 percent from the previous year. For the other
major producers in the region, rice production in Costa
Rica, Mexico and Nicaragua is estimated to have
undergone a contraction, while in Cuba moderate growth
is foreseen.
South America
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Harvesting of the 2002 wheat crop is reaching
completion in the southern areas of the subregion. In
Argentina, the largest producer, about 96 percent of
the crop had been harvested by mid-January. The latest
official forecast indicates a below-average production
of 13 million tonnes. The sown area for the 2002 crop
was significantly reduced compared to the previous
year, and yields were lower, largely as a result of
financial constraints on farmers, curtailing plantings
and input use. Furthermore, heavy rains in mid-January
have affected the tail-end of the harvest in the large
producing areas of southeastern Buenos Aires Province
and the final figure could be somewhat lower. In
Brazil, harvesting has been completed and output is
estimated at 2.9 million tonnes, 12 percent down from
the previous year but still above the five-year
average. This is less than earlier expected as adverse
weather in the main producing states of Paraná and Rio
Grande do Sul seriously affected developing crops in
the latter part of the season. In Chile, harvesting is
underway. Recent heavy rains are reported to have
negatively affected the crops, but no detailed
assessment of damage has been made available yet.
Output is nevertheless forecast to be about average. In
Uruguay, harvest operations have been virtually
completed and some 135 000 hectares of wheat have
been harvested, an improvement over the previous year
but still well below average. In the Andean countries,
in Bolivia, wheat output in 2002 is estimated at a
slightly above-average 143 000 tonnes. Planting of
the 2003 first season crop has started in the largest
producing areas in the eastern Department of Santa
Cruz. In Peru, production of wheat, mostly grown in the
highlands and for local consumption, was a high
190 000 tonnes in 2002.
Planting of the 2003 coarse grain crops,
principally maize, in the southern areas of the
subregion is well advanced. In Argentina, about 95
percent of intended plantings had been completed by the
end of the first week of January. As a whole, the crop
is reported to be in good condition, particularly in
the main growing areas; nevertheless, total maize
plantings are provisionally estimated to be slightly
lower than the previous year's below average
level. This is mainly the result of credit constraints
on producers in view of the uncertain economic
situation faced by the country. In Brazil, planting of
the 2003 main maize crop (summer crop), which started
in August 2002 should be completed by February.
Harvesting is due to start in some parts by next month.
Latest official estimates indicate that the planted
area decreased slightly from last year's level,
largely because of farmers' decision, principally
in the large producing southern states, to decrease the
area planted to maize in the summer in favour of more
exportable crops. To offset the decline, it is expected
that farmers will increase plantings of the second
season crop ('safrihna'), which are due to
start from March. Planting has also been recently
completed in Chile and Uruguay, and an increased area
is reported in the former country. In the Andean
countries, in Bolivia, planting of maize and barley has
been completed in the highland valleys as well as in
the important producing eastern Department of Santa
Cruz. Growing conditions are reported to be normal and
harvesting is due to start from late March. In Ecuador,
harvesting of the 2002 second season maize crop has
recently been completed and output for the year is
provisionally estimated at a high 560 000 tonnes.
In Peru, where maize is grown throughout the year, a
record output of about 1.5 million tonnes has been
harvested. In Colombia, harvesting of the 2002 second
season crops is underway and an average aggregate maize
output (both first and second season crops) is
anticipated. In Venezuela, harvesting of the 2002 maize
and sorghum crops has been recently completed and
below-average outputs were collected.
With the exception of a few countries situated north of
the equator, which are in the process of gathering
winter paddy, the 2002 rice season for the
region ended in June of last year. The aggregate output
estimate remains unchanged at 19.5 million tonnes, 3
percent down from the 2001 level.
As for the 2003 season, most countries in South
America, began planting their main paddy crops last
October. As these crops approach maturation, several of
the larger rice-growing countries in the region have
released preliminary production forecasts, which all
appear promising, despite widespread economic
uncertainty. For example, in Argentina, a sharp area
expansion might lead to rebound in production by about
24 percent from last year's level. In Brazil, the
region's largest producer, output is forecast to
increase by 3 percent from 2002, based on trend growth
in yields. However, excessive rainfall during the
planting stage has cast some doubt on the
country's prospects. A production recovery could
also take place in Uruguay, led by a forecast increase
in plantings.
North America
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In the United States, the final official estimate of
the 2002 wheat crop is 44 million tonnes, some 8
percent down from the already well-below average crop
in the previous year. The first official forecast of
the winter wheat seeded area for the 2003 crop points
to an increase of 6 percent from the previous year to
17.9 million hectares, the largest area since 1998. The
increase is mostly attributed to higher wheat prices
during the peak planting time last August. Apart from
the increased area, improved planting and growing
conditions also contribute to the likelihood of a
larger crop this year. According to the last official
Crop Progress report of the 2002 season in late
November, overall, about 60 percent of the crop had a
good to excellent condition rating compared with 44
percent a year ago. In Canada, latest estimates put the
2002 wheat crop at 15.7 million tonnes, a 24 percent
drop from the previous year and well below the
five-year average. Regarding the prospects for 2003,
the relatively small winter wheat crop has already been
sown and the area is estimated at a record high of
400 000 ha, 67 percent up from last year, in
response to the high wheat prices last autumn. Early
indications for the main spring crop to be sown later
this year also point to a sharp increase in the area
sown by about 7 percent. However, the area harvested is
expected to increase much more compared to 2002 as a
sharp drop in abandonment is likely. Thus, based on the
expected harvested area and assuming a return to
near-normal yields, total wheat production in 2003
could increase by over 60 percent.
The final estimate of the United States 2002 coarse
grains crop is 245.2 million tonnes, about 6.5
percent down from the previous year's crop and
below the average of the past five years. Of the total,
maize is estimated to account for about 229 million
tonnes. In Canada, as for wheat, output of coarse
grains was also reduced by drought, falling to just
19.8 million tonnes, 13 percent down from the previous
year's already below average output.
According to the USDA, United States' rice
production registered a 2 percent contraction from the
2001 high, but the agency confirmed that the crop still
stands as the second largest in history. Although
several major producing states posted record yields, a
decrease in long-grain production, attributed to a
price-induced fall in planted area, more than offset a
sharp rise in medium grain output.
Europe
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The latest estimate for the region's aggregate 2002
cereal output is 434 million tonnes, 1.6 percent
up from the previous year. Most of the increase is
attributed to larger wheat crops in the main producing
countries in the EU and in the Russian Federation. The
wheat crops elsewhere, and the coarse grain crops
throughout the region were mostly similar to, or
somewhat down from the previous year's levels.
Output of wheat in the region is estimated at
some 209.7 million tonnes, about 4.5 percent up from
2001. The latest estimate of the region's coarse
grains output has been raised slightly since the
last report to 221.1 million tonnes, about 1 percent
down from the previous year, while paddy
production is estimated marginally up at 3.3 million
tonnes.
Autumn and winter weather conditions so far, have been
generally favourable for the bulk of the winter grain
crops throughout the EU, and mostly better than during
the same period in the previous season. Latest
information suggests that the overall winter wheat area
will probably remain around last year's level.
Wheat prices in the EU in the latter part of 2002 were
under pressure from large volumes of imports from other
parts of Europe, somewhat reducing the incentive for EU
producers to plant wheat last autumn. However,
generally better conditions for crops so far this
season may lead to higher yields.
The outcome of the 2002 cereal harvests in central and
eastern Europe were somewhat mixed. While production in
Bulgaria registered a significant improvement, rising
above the average of the past five years, output in
Hungary and Romania fell back to below-average and
average levels respectively after bumper crops in 2001.
Elsewhere the harvests were similar to the previous
year's levels.
Regarding the winter grain crops for the 2003 harvest,
apart from adverse weather last autumn, which disrupted
planting in some parts, conditions have been generally
satisfactory. In the Czech Republic, the outlook is
somewhat uncertain: a new wave of flooding in early
January may have further stressed some crops following
the impact of adverse weather already during planting
last autumn. The winter wheat area in Hungary is
estimated to be similar to that of the previous year.
However, the condition of the crop is reported to be
significantly better, pointing to an increase in
production from last year's below average level,
should the weather be normal during the remainder of
the season. In Poland, the winter wheat area is
tentatively estimated to be down for the second year.
In the Slovak Republic, as of early December, planting
of the winter grain crops was reported to be about 75
percent complete, well behind the pace at the same time
in the previous year. It is likely that the final area
sown will haven fallen short of last year's
level. Excessive autumn rainfall hampered fieldwork,
particularly in October.
In the Balkan countries, in Bulgaria, latest official
information points to a winter wheat area of about
850 000 tonnes, down from the average of 1 million
hectares. The decline is attributed to adverse weather
during the peak planting period last autumn, and poor
returns on last year's crops for most small to
medium sized wheat producers. The area planted to wheat
for harvest this year in the Federal Republic of
Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro) is reported to be
similar to last year's. Growing conditions have
been favourable so far and overall cereal output is
expected to be similar to last year's level,
which comprised about 2 million tonnes of wheat and 6
million tonnes of coarse grains. In Romania, in
contrast to many other parts of the region, the winter
grain planting campaign benefited from generally
favourable weather. The total wheat area is estimated
at about 2.1 million hectares, similar to the previous
year's area, and with the bulk of the crop
planted within the optimum date the yields prospects
are good.
The 2002 wheat harvest in the Baltic States, estimated
at 1.3 million tonnes, was similar to the 2001 harvest.
Production is expected to be maintained at this level
in 2003 also.
In the CIS countries west of the Ural Mountains, the
aggregate wheat harvest in 2002 totaled about 73
million tonnes, which is a record in post-Soviet era.
The Russian Federation accounted for the bulk of the
increase as output in Ukraine fell slightly. The
overall coarse grains output among these countries in
2002 also rose, to 58.4 million tonnes, 1 million
tonnes higher than the bumper harvest in 2001. In this
case Ukraine and Belarus accounted for the bulk of the
increase, as coarse grain output fell in the Russian
Federation. The estimate of the 2002 paddy output in
the Russian Federation has been revised downward since
the last report, to 480 000 tonnes, around 3
percent below last year's crop, mostly on account
of reduced plantings.
The area planted to wheat and other winter cereals in
these countries for harvest later this year is
estimated to have increased slightly, but late planting
due to adverse autumn weather, and harsh winter
conditions may result in lower yields this year.
Oceania
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In Australia, the recently completed 2002 winter
wheat harvest is officially estimated at 10 million
tonnes, just a little more than 40 percent of the
previous year's bumper crop, reflecting the
devastating impact of a severe and prolonged drought.
The winter coarse grain crops (mostly barley and
oats) also suffered from the drought, and the aggregate
coarse grains output shrank to about 6.8 million
tonnes, compared to almost 12 million tonnes in the
previous year. Prospects for the summer coarse grain
crop (mostly sorghum) have improved somewhat in parts
of northern NSW and southern Queensland following the
arrival of some rainfall in late December. The
precipitation is reported to have benefited crops
already in the ground and allowed planting in some
areas that would otherwise have remained fallow.
However, the rainfall was insufficient to significantly
improve the severely depleted soil moisture reserves or
irrigation reserves.
The ABARE crop report in December confirmed that owing
to severe water shortages, the area sown to rice
would cover only 30 percent of the 2002 level. This
could bring the 2003 paddy crop down to 380 000
tonnes, compared to 1.3 million tonnes in 2002. The
situation might even deteriorate further, given that
the current drought conditions are forecast to prevail
up to the harvest in April.
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