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Economic and Social Department

 global information and early warning system on food and agriculture

 food outlook
No. 1 Rome, February 2003

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highlights

BASIC FACTS OF THE WORLD CEREAL SITUATION

Cereals

SEVERE FOOD SHORTAGES PERSIST IN MOST REGIONS OF THE WORLD

Current Production and Crop Prospects

Trade

Carryover Stocks

Export Prices

Fish and Fisheries Products

Fertilizers

Appendix Tables

STATISTICAL NOTE

STATISTICAL NOTE

Data are obtained from official and unofficial sources. For cereals, production data refer to the calendar year in which the whole harvest or bulk of harvest takes place. For sugar, production data relate to the October/September season. For vegetable oils and oil meals derived from oilseeds, production data refer to the year in which the bulk of the seeds concerned are crushed. For trade in wheat and coarse grains, the time reference period is normally the July/June marketing year unless otherwise stated. Trade data for rice and other commodities refer to the calendar year. Coarse grains refer to all other cereals except wheat and rice. Quantities are in metric tonnes unless otherwise stated. '-' means nil or negligible.

In the presentation and analysis of statistical material, countries are sub-divided, where appropriate, into the following two main economic groupings: "Developed countries" (including the developed market economies and the transition markets) and "Developing countries" (including the developing market economies and the Asia centrally planned countries). The designation "Developed and "Developing" economies is intended for statistical convenience and does not necessarily express a judgement about the stage reached by a particular country or area in the development process.

References are also made to special country groupings: Low Income Food Deficit Countries (LIFDCs), Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Net Food-Importing Developing Countries (NFIDCs). The LIFDCs currently includes 82 countries that are net importers of cereals with per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. US$ 1 445 in 2000). The LDCs and NIFDCs groups include a list of countries agreed by the World Trade Organization (WTO) to qualify as beneficiaries under the Marrakech Decision on the Possible Negative Effects of the Reform Programme on Least-Developed and Net-Food Importing Developing Countries. The LDCs group currently includes 49 countries with low income as well as weak human resources and low level of economic diversification. The list is reviewed every three years by the Economic and Social Council of the United Nations. The NIFDCs group includes 21 developing country WTO Members which notified their request to be listed as NFIDCs and have submitted relevant statistical data concerning their status as net-importers of basic foodstuffs during a representative period. This list is reviewed annually by the WTO Committee on Agriculture.

The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

Contents and Release Dates 1 / No. 1 No. 2 No. 3 No. 4 No. 5
7 February 8 April 10 June 16 September 10 November
           
Cereal Supply/Demand Roundup 2/ Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable
Cereal Production, Trade, Stocks & Prices Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable
Cereal Utilization - extended report   Stable      
Food Aid and Cereal Import Bills   Stable      
Ocean Freight Rates   Stable   Stable  
Fertilizers Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable
Meat and Meat Products   Stable     Stable
Milk and Milk Products   Stable     Stable
Oilseeds, Oils and Oilmeals     Stable   Stable
Pulses     Stable    
Sugar     Stable   Stable
Fish Stable        
1/ These dates are tentative and refer to the release of the English version. Food Outlook in Arabic, Chinese, French and Spanish   language is available shortly after the release of the English version.
2/ Including update on food emergencies.

Food Outlook is issued by FAO under the Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture. This issue is based on information available up to 12 January 2003.

Contributors to this issue are as follows: Wheat and Coarse Grain Production: S. Ahmed (Eastern Africa & Near East); Ms. L. Balbi (Southern Africa and Great Lakes); M. Gavela (North Africa & Oceania developing); A. Aziz (CIS); J. Senahoun (Western and Central Africa); M. Gavela (Latin America and Caribbean); K. Gunjal (Asia); P. Racionzer (Europe, North America & Oceania developed). Cereal Trade, Stocks, Prices (excl. rice): A. Abbassian; Rice: Ms. C. Calpe; Fish: Ms. H. Josupeit; Fertilizers: J. Poulisse.

Enquiries should be directed to The Chief, Global Information and Early Warning Service, Commodities and Trade Division (ESC), FAO - Rome. Direct Facsimile: 39-06-5705-4495; E-mailgiews1@fao.org.

Food Outlook and other GIEWS reports are available on the Internet as part of the FAO World Wide Web (www.fao.org ) at the following URL address: http://www.fao.org/giews/. In addition, some of the GIEWS regular reports can be received by E-mail through automatic mailing lists: subscription information is available at http://www.fao.org/giews/english/listserv.htm

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