`

Economic and Social Department

 global information and early warning system on food and agriculture

 food outlook
No. 1 Rome, February 2003

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highlights

BASIC FACTS OF THE WORLD CEREAL SITUATION

Cereals

SEVERE FOOD SHORTAGES PERSIST IN MOST REGIONS OF THE WORLD

Current Production and Crop Prospects

Trade

Carryover Stocks

Export Prices

Fish and Fisheries Products

Fertilizers

Appendix Tables

Table A.1 a) - WORLD CEREAL PRODUCTION

Table A.1 b) - WORLD CEREAL PRODUCTION

Table A.2 a) - WORLD IMPORTS OF CEREALS

Table A.2 b) - WORLD IMPORTS OF CEREALS

Table A.3 a) - WORLD EXPORTS OF CEREALS

Table A.3 b) - WORLD EXPORTS OF CEREALS

Table A.4 - CEREALS: Supply and Utilization in Main Exporting Countries (National Crop Years)

Table A.5 - WORLD CEREAL STOCKS: Estimated Total Carryovers of Cereals 1/

Table A.6 - SELECTED EXPORT PRICES OF CEREALS AND SOYBEANS

Table A.7 - PRICE INDICES AND SELECTED EXPORT PRICES FOR RICE

Table A.8 - PRICE INDICES AND SELECTED INTERNATIONAL PRICES FOR OILCROP PRODUCTS

Table A.9 - WHEAT AND MAIZE FUTURES PRICES

Table A.10 - OCEAN FREIGHT RATES FOR WHEAT

Table A.11 - SELECTED INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

STATISTICAL NOTE

Appendix Tables

Table A.1 a) - WORLD CEREAL PRODUCTION

Top
  Wheat Coarse Grains
2000 2001 2002
estim. 		2000 2001 2002
estim.
  ( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
ASIA 254.7 245.2 250.7 195.8 209.8 214.2
  Bangladesh 1.7 1.6 1.8 0.1 0.1 0.1
  China   1/ 99.6 93.9 89.3 117.2 125.2 134.9
  India 76.4 68.8 71.5 31.6 34.7 28.4
  Indonesia - - - 9.7 9.3 9.8
  Iran, Islamic Rep. of 8.1 9.5 12.0 2.8 3.5 4.5
  Japan 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.3
  Kazakhstan 9.1 12.7 12.6 2.1 3.0 2.9
  Korea, D. P. R. 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.1 1.6 1.8
  Korea, Rep. of - - - 0.3 0.5 0.4
  Myanmar 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.8
  Pakistan 22.0 19.0 19.2 2.2 2.1 2.1
  Philippines - - - 4.5 4.5 4.3
  Saudi Arabia 1.8 1.8 1.8 0.3 0.3 0.3
  Thailand - - - 4.9 4.7 4.2
  Turkey 21.0 19.0 20.0 10.9 10.2 10.1
  Viet Nam - - - 2.0 2.1 2.3
AFRICA 14.5 17.8 16.0 80.4 82.5 78.7
North Africa 9.7 12.9 11.7 8.6 10.0 10.1
  Egypt 6.6 6.3 6.6 7.5 7.8 7.7
  Morocco 1.4 3.3 3.4 0.6 1.3 1.9
Sub-Saharan Africa 4.8 4.9 4.3 71.8 72.5 68.6
   Western Africa 0.1 0.1 0.1 31.3 33.4 33.3
  Nigeria - 0.1 - 19.3 19.6 20.0
Central Africa - - - 2.5 2.5 2.5
Eastern Africa 2.0 2.0 1.6 18.5 21.9 17.9
  Ethiopia 1.5 1.4 1.1 7.8 7.4 5.6
  Sudan 0.3 0.2 0.2 3.0 5.1 3.5
Southern Africa 2.7 2.9 2.6 19.4 14.7 14.8
  Madagascar - - - 0.2 0.2 0.2
  South Africa 2.4 2.5 2.3 11.1 7.9 9.5
  Zimbabwe 0.3 0.3 0.2 2.2 1.6 0.6
CENTRAL AMERICA 3.5 3.3 3.3 27.6 30.7 29.3
  Mexico 3.5 3.3 3.3 23.9 27.1 25.6
SOUTH AMERICA 20.0 21.2 18.7 63.0 71.3 64.8
  Argentina 16.0 15.3 13.0 21.7 19.6 18.7
  Brazil 1.7 3.3 2.9 32.9 43.0 37.0
  Colombia - - - 1.4 1.4 1.4
NORTH AMERICA 87.3 73.8 59.7 297.6 285.1 264.9
  Canada 26.5 20.6 15.7 24.2 22.7 19.8
  United States 60.8 53.3 44.0 273.4 262.4 245.2
EUROPE 183.7 200.7 209.7 198.7 223.5 221.1
  Bulgaria 2.8 3.1 3.5 1.5 1.9 2.4
  EU   105.4 92.1 103.8 108.7 108.1 106.5
  Hungary 3.7 5.2 3.9 6.3 9.9 7.7
  Poland 8.5 9.3 9.3 13.8 17.7 17.6
  Romania 4.4 7.8 4.4 6.0 10.3 9.8
  Russian Fed. 34.4 46.9 50.3 29.3 35.9 34.2
  Ukraine 11.0 21.3 20.5 13.8 16.1 17.7
OCEANIA 22.5 24.3 10.3 11.7 12.3 7.5
  Australia 22.2 24.0 10.0 11.2 11.8 6.8
WORLD 586.3 586.4 568.4 874.8 915.1 880.5
  Developing countries 272.8 262.3 261.3 352.0 381.2 372.3
  Developed countries 313.4 324.1 307.1 522.8 533.9 508.2
Source: FAO Note: Totals computed from unrounded data.
1/ Including Taiwan Province.

Table A.1 b) - WORLD CEREAL PRODUCTION

Top
  Rice (paddy) Total Cereals 1 /
2000 2001 2002
estim. 		2000 2001 2002
estim.
  ( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
ASIA 545.3 543.5 528.0 995.8 998.5 992.9
  Bangladesh 37.6 37.8 38.5 39.4 39.5 40.3
  China   2/ 189.8 179.3 177.5 406.6 398.4 401.7
  India 127.3 137.4 120.0 235.3 240.9 219.9
  Indonesia 51.9 50.5 51.6 61.6 59.8 61.4
  Iran, Islamic Rep. of 2.0 2.0 2.7 12.9 14.9 19.2
  Japan 11.9 11.3 11.1 12.8 12.3 12.1
  Kazakhstan 0.2 0.2 0.2 11.4 15.9 15.7
  Korea, D. P. R. 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.9 3.8 4.1
  Korea, Rep. of 7.2 7.5 6.7 7.5 7.9 7.0
  Myanmar 21.3 21.9 21.9 22.0 22.7 22.8
  Pakistan 7.2 5.8 6.6 31.4 26.9 28.0
  Philippines 12.5 13.1 13.2 17.0 17.6 17.5
  Saudi Arabia - - - 2.1 2.1 2.1
  Thailand 25.8 26.5 25.8 30.7 31.2 30.0
  Turkey 0.4 0.4 0.4 32.2 29.6 30.5
  Viet Nam 32.5 32.0 34.1 34.6 34.1 36.4
AFRICA 17.6 17.4 18.1 112.5 117.7 112.7
North Africa 6.0 5.3 6.1 24.3 28.2 27.9
  Egypt 6.0 5.2 6.0 20.1 19.3 20.3
  Morocco - - - 2.0 4.6 5.3
Sub-Saharan Africa 11.5 12.1 12.0 88.1 89.5 84.8
Western Africa 7.3 7.7 7.5 38.7 41.1 40.9
  Nigeria 3.3 3.4 3.5 22.7 23.0 23.6
Central Africa 0.4 0.4 0.4 3.0 3.0 3.0
Eastern Africa 1.0 1.0 1.0 21.5 24.9 20.6
  Ethiopia - - - 9.3 8.8 6.7
  Sudan - - - 3.3 5.3 3.8
Southern Africa 2.8 3.0 3.0 24.9 20.5 20.4
  Madagascar 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.9
  South Africa - - - 13.5 10.4 11.8
  Zimbabwe - - - 2.5 1.9 0.7
CENTRAL AMERICA 2.5 2.3 2.3 33.6 36.2 34.9
  Mexico 0.4 0.2 0.2 27.8 30.6 29.0
SOUTH AMERICA 21.0 20.0 19.5 104.1 112.6 103.0
  Argentina 0.9 0.9 0.7 38.5 35.7 32.4
  Brazil 11.4 10.4 10.7 46.0 56.7 50.5
  Colombia 2.3 2.3 2.4 3.7 3.7 3.8
NORTH AMERICA 8.7 9.8 9.6 393.5 368.7 334.2
  Canada - - - 50.7 43.3 35.4
  United States 8.7 9.8 9.6 342.8 325.4 298.7
EUROPE 3.2 3.2 3.3 385.7 427.3 434.1
  Bulgaria - - - 4.3 5.0 5.9
  EU 2.5 2.6 2.6 216.6 202.8 213.0
  Hungary - - - 10.0 15.1 11.6
  Poland - - - 22.3 27.0 26.9
  Romania - - - 10.5 18.1 14.2
  Russian Fed. 0.6 0.5 0.5 64.3 83.3 85.0
  Ukraine 0.1 0.1 0.1 24.9 37.5 38.2
OCEANIA 1.1 1.8 1.3 35.3 38.4 19.1
  Australia 1.1 1.8 1.3 34.4 37.5 18.0
WORLD 599.4 597.9 582.0 2 060.4 2 099.4 2 031.0
  Developing countries 574.1 571.5 556.3 1 198.9 1 215.0 1 190.0
  Developed countries 25.3 26.4 25.7 861.5 884.4 841.0

Source: FAO Note: Totals computed from unrounded data.
1/ Rice is included in the cereal total in paddy terms. 2/ Including Taiwan Province

Table A.2 a) - WORLD IMPORTS OF CEREALS

Top
  Wheat (July/June) 1 / Coarse Grains (July/June)
2000/01 2001/02
estim. 		2002/03
f'cast 		2000/01 2001/02
estim. 		2002/03
f'cast
  ( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
ASIA 44.1 47.3 44.1 58.8 56.8 55.3
  Bangladesh 1.0 1.7 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.1
  China 1.5 2.0 2.1 7.1 7.3 7.2
      Taiwan Province 1.0 1.0 1.1 4.8 4.9 4.8
  Georgia 0.7 0.5 0.6 - - -
  India 0.1 - 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2
  Indonesia 4.1 4.0 4.0 1.6 1.1 1.1
  Iran, Islamic Rep. of 6.5 5.9 3.3 2.5 2.0 1.7
  Iraq 3.2 3.0 3.0 0.3 0.1 0.1
  Israel 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.1
  Japan 5.7 5.7 5.9 20.4 19.9 19.9
  Korea, D. P. R. 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.4
  Korea, Rep. of 3.1 4.0 4.0 8.9 8.6 8.8
  Malaysia 1.3 1.3 1.4 2.7 2.4 2.4
  Pakistan 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1
  Philippines 3.0 3.1 3.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
  Saudi Arabia - 0.1 0.1 6.2 7.0 6.4
  Singapore 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
  Sri Lanka 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.2 0.1
  Syria 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.6 0.9 0.5
  Thailand 0.8 0.8 0.8 - 0.3 0.4
  Yemen 1.9 2.0 2.0 0.2 0.2 0.2
AFRICA 25.8 24.9 26.2 14.4 15.1 17.9
North Africa 16.8 16.6 17.2 10.4 11.3 11.2
  Algeria 4.6 4.4 4.8 2.1 2.1 2.2
  Egypt 5.7 6.8 6.3 4.9 5.5 5.5
  Morocco 3.3 3.0 2.9 1.5 1.6 1.4
  Tunisia 1.6 1.3 1.8 1.1 1.4 1.3
Sub-Saharan Africa 9.0 8.3 9.0 4.0 3.8 6.7
  Côte d'Ivoire 0.3 0.3 0.3 - - -
  Ethiopia 0.8 0.3 1.2 0.1 - 0.4
  Kenya 0.6 0.5 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.9
  Nigeria 1.6 1.7 1.7 0.1 0.1 0.1
  Senegal 0.3 0.3 0.3 - 0.1 -
  Sudan 0.8 1.1 1.3 0.1 0.1 0.1
  South Africa 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7
CENTRAL AMERICA 6.9 6.7 7.0 14.7 12.5 14.0
  Cuba 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.1 0.2 0.3
  Dominican Rep. 0.5 0.3 0.3 1.1 0.7 0.7
  Mexico 3.2 3.1 3.3 11.2 9.2 10.6
SOUTH AMERICA 12.7 11.8 11.7 7.5 6.2 6.3
  Brazil 7.4 6.8 6.9 1.8 0.6 0.6
  Chile 0.4 0.3 0.3 1.3 1.2 1.1
  Colombia 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.9 2.4 2.4
  Peru 1.4 1.3 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.1
  Venezuela 1.3 1.3