`

Economic and Social Department

 global information and early warning system on food and agriculture

 food outlook
No. 1 Rome, February 2003

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highlights

BASIC FACTS OF THE WORLD CEREAL SITUATION

Cereals

SEVERE FOOD SHORTAGES PERSIST IN MOST REGIONS OF THE WORLD

Current Production and Crop Prospects

Trade

Carryover Stocks

Export Prices

Fish and Fisheries Products

Fertilizers

Appendix Tables

STATISTICAL NOTE

Appendix Tables

Table A.1 a) - WORLD CEREAL PRODUCTION

Top
  Wheat Coarse Grains
2000 2001 2002
estim.
2000 2001 2002
estim.
  ( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
ASIA 254.7 245.2 250.7 195.8 209.8 214.2
  Bangladesh 1.7 1.6 1.8 0.1 0.1 0.1
  China   1/ 99.6 93.9 89.3 117.2 125.2 134.9
  India 76.4 68.8 71.5 31.6 34.7 28.4
  Indonesia - - - 9.7 9.3 9.8
  Iran, Islamic Rep. of 8.1 9.5 12.0 2.8 3.5 4.5
  Japan 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.3
  Kazakhstan 9.1 12.7 12.6 2.1 3.0 2.9
  Korea, D. P. R. 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.1 1.6 1.8
  Korea, Rep. of - - - 0.3 0.5 0.4
  Myanmar 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.8
  Pakistan 22.0 19.0 19.2 2.2 2.1 2.1
  Philippines - - - 4.5 4.5 4.3
  Saudi Arabia 1.8 1.8 1.8 0.3 0.3 0.3
  Thailand - - - 4.9 4.7 4.2
  Turkey 21.0 19.0 20.0 10.9 10.2 10.1
  Viet Nam - - - 2.0 2.1 2.3
AFRICA 14.5 17.8 16.0 80.4 82.5 78.7
North Africa 9.7 12.9 11.7 8.6 10.0 10.1
  Egypt 6.6 6.3 6.6 7.5 7.8 7.7
  Morocco 1.4 3.3 3.4 0.6 1.3 1.9
Sub-Saharan Africa 4.8 4.9 4.3 71.8 72.5 68.6
   Western Africa 0.1 0.1 0.1 31.3 33.4 33.3
  Nigeria - 0.1 - 19.3 19.6 20.0
Central Africa - - - 2.5 2.5 2.5
Eastern Africa 2.0 2.0 1.6 18.5 21.9 17.9
  Ethiopia 1.5 1.4 1.1 7.8 7.4 5.6
  Sudan 0.3 0.2 0.2 3.0 5.1 3.5
Southern Africa 2.7 2.9 2.6 19.4 14.7 14.8
  Madagascar - - - 0.2 0.2 0.2
  South Africa 2.4 2.5 2.3 11.1 7.9 9.5
  Zimbabwe 0.3 0.3 0.2 2.2 1.6 0.6
CENTRAL AMERICA 3.5 3.3 3.3 27.6 30.7 29.3
  Mexico 3.5 3.3 3.3 23.9 27.1 25.6
SOUTH AMERICA 20.0 21.2 18.7 63.0 71.3 64.8
  Argentina 16.0 15.3 13.0 21.7 19.6 18.7
  Brazil 1.7 3.3 2.9 32.9 43.0 37.0
  Colombia - - - 1.4 1.4 1.4
NORTH AMERICA 87.3 73.8 59.7 297.6 285.1 264.9
  Canada 26.5 20.6 15.7 24.2 22.7 19.8
  United States 60.8 53.3 44.0 273.4 262.4 245.2
EUROPE 183.7 200.7 209.7 198.7 223.5 221.1
  Bulgaria 2.8 3.1 3.5 1.5 1.9 2.4
  EU   105.4 92.1 103.8 108.7 108.1 106.5
  Hungary 3.7 5.2 3.9 6.3 9.9 7.7
  Poland 8.5 9.3 9.3 13.8 17.7 17.6
  Romania 4.4 7.8 4.4 6.0 10.3 9.8
  Russian Fed. 34.4 46.9 50.3 29.3 35.9 34.2
  Ukraine 11.0 21.3 20.5 13.8 16.1 17.7
OCEANIA 22.5 24.3 10.3 11.7 12.3 7.5
  Australia 22.2 24.0 10.0 11.2 11.8 6.8
WORLD 586.3 586.4 568.4 874.8 915.1 880.5
  Developing countries 272.8 262.3 261.3 352.0 381.2 372.3
  Developed countries 313.4 324.1 307.1 522.8 533.9 508.2
Source: FAO Note: Totals computed from unrounded data.
1/ Including Taiwan Province.

Table A.1 b) - WORLD CEREAL PRODUCTION

Top
  Rice (paddy) Total Cereals 1 /
2000 2001 2002
estim.
2000 2001 2002
estim.
  ( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
ASIA 545.3 543.5 528.0 995.8 998.5 992.9
  Bangladesh 37.6 37.8 38.5 39.4 39.5 40.3
  China   2/ 189.8 179.3 177.5 406.6 398.4 401.7
  India 127.3 137.4 120.0 235.3 240.9 219.9
  Indonesia 51.9 50.5 51.6 61.6 59.8 61.4
  Iran, Islamic Rep. of 2.0 2.0 2.7 12.9 14.9 19.2
  Japan 11.9 11.3 11.1 12.8 12.3 12.1
  Kazakhstan 0.2 0.2 0.2 11.4 15.9 15.7
  Korea, D. P. R. 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.9 3.8 4.1
  Korea, Rep. of 7.2 7.5 6.7 7.5 7.9 7.0
  Myanmar 21.3 21.9 21.9 22.0 22.7 22.8
  Pakistan 7.2 5.8 6.6 31.4 26.9 28.0
  Philippines 12.5 13.1 13.2 17.0 17.6 17.5
  Saudi Arabia - - - 2.1 2.1 2.1
  Thailand 25.8 26.5 25.8 30.7 31.2 30.0
  Turkey 0.4 0.4 0.4 32.2 29.6 30.5
  Viet Nam 32.5 32.0 34.1 34.6 34.1 36.4
AFRICA 17.6 17.4 18.1 112.5 117.7 112.7
North Africa 6.0 5.3 6.1 24.3 28.2 27.9
  Egypt 6.0 5.2 6.0 20.1 19.3 20.3
  Morocco - - - 2.0 4.6 5.3
Sub-Saharan Africa 11.5 12.1 12.0 88.1 89.5 84.8
Western Africa 7.3 7.7 7.5 38.7 41.1 40.9
  Nigeria 3.3 3.4 3.5 22.7 23.0 23.6
Central Africa 0.4 0.4 0.4 3.0 3.0 3.0
Eastern Africa 1.0 1.0 1.0 21.5 24.9 20.6
  Ethiopia - - - 9.3 8.8 6.7
  Sudan - - - 3.3 5.3 3.8
Southern Africa 2.8 3.0 3.0 24.9 20.5 20.4
  Madagascar 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.9
  South Africa - - - 13.5 10.4 11.8
  Zimbabwe - - - 2.5 1.9 0.7
CENTRAL AMERICA 2.5 2.3 2.3 33.6 36.2 34.9
  Mexico 0.4 0.2 0.2 27.8 30.6 29.0
SOUTH AMERICA 21.0 20.0 19.5 104.1 112.6 103.0
  Argentina 0.9 0.9 0.7 38.5 35.7 32.4
  Brazil 11.4 10.4 10.7 46.0 56.7 50.5
  Colombia 2.3 2.3 2.4 3.7 3.7 3.8
NORTH AMERICA 8.7 9.8 9.6 393.5 368.7 334.2
  Canada - - - 50.7 43.3 35.4
  United States 8.7 9.8 9.6 342.8 325.4 298.7
EUROPE 3.2 3.2 3.3 385.7 427.3 434.1
  Bulgaria - - - 4.3 5.0 5.9
  EU 2.5 2.6 2.6 216.6 202.8 213.0
  Hungary - - - 10.0 15.1 11.6
  Poland - - - 22.3 27.0 26.9
  Romania - - - 10.5 18.1 14.2
  Russian Fed. 0.6 0.5 0.5 64.3 83.3 85.0
  Ukraine 0.1 0.1 0.1 24.9 37.5 38.2
OCEANIA 1.1 1.8 1.3 35.3 38.4 19.1
  Australia 1.1 1.8 1.3 34.4 37.5 18.0
WORLD 599.4 597.9 582.0 2 060.4 2 099.4 2 031.0
  Developing countries 574.1 571.5 556.3 1 198.9 1 215.0 1 190.0
  Developed countries 25.3 26.4 25.7 861.5 884.4 841.0

Source: FAO Note: Totals computed from unrounded data.
1/ Rice is included in the cereal total in paddy terms. 2/ Including Taiwan Province

Table A.2 a) - WORLD IMPORTS OF CEREALS

Top
  Wheat (July/June) 1 / Coarse Grains (July/June)
2000/01 2001/02
estim.
2002/03
f'cast
2000/01 2001/02
estim.
2002/03
f'cast
  ( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
ASIA 44.1 47.3 44.1 58.8 56.8 55.3
  Bangladesh 1.0 1.7 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.1
  China 1.5 2.0 2.1 7.1 7.3 7.2
      Taiwan Province 1.0 1.0 1.1 4.8 4.9 4.8
  Georgia 0.7 0.5 0.6 - - -
  India 0.1 - 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2
  Indonesia 4.1 4.0 4.0 1.6 1.1 1.1
  Iran, Islamic Rep. of 6.5 5.9 3.3 2.5 2.0 1.7
  Iraq 3.2 3.0 3.0 0.3 0.1 0.1
  Israel 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.1
  Japan 5.7 5.7 5.9 20.4 19.9 19.9
  Korea, D. P. R. 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.4
  Korea, Rep. of 3.1 4.0 4.0 8.9 8.6 8.8
  Malaysia 1.3 1.3 1.4 2.7 2.4 2.4
  Pakistan 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1
  Philippines 3.0 3.1 3.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
  Saudi Arabia - 0.1 0.1 6.2 7.0 6.4
  Singapore 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
  Sri Lanka 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.2 0.1
  Syria 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.6 0.9 0.5
  Thailand 0.8 0.8 0.8 - 0.3 0.4
  Yemen 1.9 2.0 2.0 0.2 0.2 0.2
AFRICA 25.8 24.9 26.2 14.4 15.1 17.9
North Africa 16.8 16.6 17.2 10.4 11.3 11.2
  Algeria 4.6 4.4 4.8 2.1 2.1 2.2
  Egypt 5.7 6.8 6.3 4.9 5.5 5.5
  Morocco 3.3 3.0 2.9 1.5 1.6 1.4
  Tunisia 1.6 1.3 1.8 1.1 1.4 1.3
Sub-Saharan Africa 9.0 8.3 9.0 4.0 3.8 6.7
  Côte d'Ivoire 0.3 0.3 0.3 - - -
  Ethiopia 0.8 0.3 1.2 0.1 - 0.4
  Kenya 0.6 0.5 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.9
  Nigeria 1.6 1.7 1.7 0.1 0.1 0.1
  Senegal 0.3 0.3 0.3 - 0.1 -
  Sudan 0.8 1.1 1.3 0.1 0.1 0.1
  South Africa 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7
CENTRAL AMERICA 6.9 6.7 7.0 14.7 12.5 14.0
  Cuba 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.1 0.2 0.3
  Dominican Rep. 0.5 0.3 0.3 1.1 0.7 0.7
  Mexico 3.2 3.1 3.3 11.2 9.2 10.6
SOUTH AMERICA 12.7 11.8 11.7 7.5 6.2 6.3
  Brazil 7.4 6.8 6.9 1.8 0.6 0.6
  Chile 0.4 0.3 0.3 1.3 1.2 1.1
  Colombia 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.9 2.4 2.4
  Peru 1.4 1.3 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.1
  Venezuela 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.6 0.7
NORTH AMERICA 2.5 2.9 2.2 5.0 6.5 7.2
  Canada 0.1 0.1 0.2 2.6 3.9 5.0
  United States 2.4 2.9 2.0 2.4 2.6 2.2
EUROPE 9.6 13.3 13.4 8.1 7.5 6.9
  Belarus 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2
  EU   2/ 3.2 10.0 10.0 2.7 3.8 3.4
  Poland 0.8 0.3 0.3 1.2 0.3 0.2
  Romania 0.5 - 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1
  Russian Fed. 1.6 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.9
  Ukraine 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
OCEANIA 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.2
  New Zealand 0.2 0.2 0.2 - - -
WORLD 102.1 107.4 105.2 108.5 104.7 107.8
  Developing countries 79.0 80.5 78.9 73.0 68.7 71.7
  Developed countries 23.1 26.9 26.3 35.5 36.0 36.1

Source: FAO Note: Totals computed from unrounded data.
1/ Including wheat flour in wheat grain equivalent, but excluding semolina.
2/ Excluding trade between the EU member countries.

Table A.2 b) - WORLD IMPORTS OF CEREALS

Top
  Rice (milled) Total Cereals 1 /
2001 2002
estim.
2003
f'cast
2000/01 2001/02
estim.
2002/03
f'cast
  ( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
ASIA 11.4 13.8 13.4 114.2 118.0 112.8
  Bangladesh 0.4 0.3 0.3 1.6 2.1 1.7
  China 0.3 0.3 0.4 8.8 9.6 9.6
      Taiwan Province - 0.1 0.2 5.9 6.1 6.0
  Georgia - - - 0.7 0.5 0.6
  India 0.1 - 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3
  Indonesia 1.5 3.5 3.2 7.2 8.6 8.3
  Iran, Islamic Rep. of 0.8 0.8 0.8 9.8 8.8 5.8
  Iraq 1.2 1.2 1.2 4.7 4.3 4.3
  Israel 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.8 2.8 2.7
  Japan 0.6 0.7 0.7 26.7 26.3 26.5
  Korea, D. P. R. 0.7 0.7 0.7 2.0 1.8 1.8
  Korea, Rep. of 0.1 0.2 0.2 12.1 12.8 13.0
  Malaysia 0.6 0.6 0.7 4.6 4.3 4.5
  Pakistan - - - 0.1 0.5 0.6
  Philippines 1.0 1.2 1.0 4.5 4.7 4.8
  Saudi Arabia 0.8 0.9 1.0 7.1 7.9 7.5
  Singapore 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.9
  Sri Lanka 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.0 1.1 1.1
  Syria 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.8 1.4 0.7
  Thailand - - - 0.8 1.1 1.2
  Yemen 0.2 0.3 0.3 2.4 2.4 2.5
AFRICA 7.3 7.8 7.5 47.5 47.8 51.7
North Africa 0.2 0.3 0.3 27.5 28.2 28.6
  Algeria 0.1 0.1 0.1 6.8 6.6 7.1
  Egypt - - - 10.6 12.3 11.8
  Morocco - - - 4.8 4.6 4.3
  Tunisia - - - 2.7 2.7 3.1
Sub-Saharan Africa 7.1 7.6 7.3 20.0 19.6 23.1
  Côte d'Ivoire 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.4 1.3 1.2
  Ethiopia - - - 0.9 0.4 1.6
  Kenya 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.9 1.2 1.7
  Nigeria 1.6 1.8 1.7 3.3 3.6 3.5
  Senegal 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.0
  Sudan - - - 1.0 1.3 1.4
  South Africa 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.8 1.9 1.7
CENTRAL AMERICA 1.7 2.0 2.0 23.3 21.2 22.9
  Cuba 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.5 1.8 1.8
  Dominican Rep. - - - 1.6 1.0 1.0
  Mexico 0.5 0.6 0.6 14.9 12.9 14.5
SOUTH AMERICA 1.1 1.0 1.0 21.3 19.0 19.0
  Brazil 0.7 0.7 0.7 9.9 8.1 8.2
  Chile 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.8 1.5 1.5
  Colombia 0.2 0.1 0.2 3.2 3.7 3.6
  Peru 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.4 2.4 2.4
  Venezuela - - 0.1 2.5 1.9 2.0
NORTH AMERICA 0.7 0.7 0.7 8.2 10.1 10.1
  Canada 0.3 0.3 0.3 3.0 4.2 5.5
  United States 0.4 0.4 0.4 5.2 5.9 4.6
EUROPE 1.6 1.7 1.7 19.3 22.4 22.1
  Belarus - - - 0.7 0.8 0.7
  EU   2/ 0.7 0.7 0.7 6.6 14.5 14.2
  Poland 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.1 0.7 0.6
  Romania 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.1 0.3 0.5
  Russian Fed. 0.3 0.4 0.4 2.7 1.6 1.7
  Ukraine 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.9 0.3 0.3
OCEANIA 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.9 1.1
  New Zealand - - - 0.3 0.2 0.2
WORLD 24.1 27.4 26.8 3/ 234.7 239.4 239.8
  Developing countries 20.2 23.3 22.7 172.2 172.4 173.3
  Developed countries 3.8 4.1 4.1 62.5 67.0 66.5

Source: FAO Note: Totals computed from unrounded data.
1/ Trade in rice refers to the calendar year of the second year shown.
2/ Excluding trade between the EU member countries.
3/ Highly tentative.

Table A.3 a) - WORLD EXPORTS OF CEREALS

Top
  Wheat (July/June) 1 / Coarse Grains (July/June)
2000/01 2001/02
estim.
2002/03
f'cast
2000/01 2001/02
estim.
2002/03
f'cast
  ( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
ASIA 10.1 11.6 15.5 11.6 8.2 13.0
  China   2/ 0.6 0.9 1.2 10.0 6.4 11.0
  India 2.4 3.5 5.0 - - -
  Indonesia - - - 0.1 0.1 0.1
  Japan 0.4 0.4 0.4 - - -
  Kazakhstan 3.7 3.8 5.0 0.4 0.4 0.4
  Myanmar - - - 0.1 0.1 0.2
  Pakistan 0.3 0.6 1.0 - - -
  Syria 0.1 0.5 0.5 - - -
  Thailand - - - 0.3 0.2 0.1
  Turkey 1.6 0.6 1.2 0.1 0.6 0.7
  Viet Nam - - - - - -
AFRICA 0.4 0.4 0.5 2.9 2.4 2.1
  Egypt - - - - - -
  Ethiopia - - - 0.2 0.2 -
  Nigeria - - - 0.2 0.1 0.1
  South Africa 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.6 1.4 1.3
  Sudan - - - 0.1 0.1 0.1
  Uganda - - - 0.3 0.3 0.1
CENTRAL AMERICA 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3
SOUTH AMERICA 10.8 11.0 8.8 15.5 15.1 11.6
  Argentina 10.7 11.0 8.7 12.8 9.6 9.3
  Brazil - - - 2.3 5.0 2.0
  Paraguay - 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2
  Uruguay 0.1 - - 0.1 0.1 0.1
NORTH AMERICA 44.6 42.1 36.0 58.9 59.6 59.3
  Canada 16.8 16.0 9.5 3.8 3.1 2.4
  United States 27.8 26.1 26.5 55.0 56.5 56.8
EUROPE 17.4 26.8 35.0 14.1 16.4 19.7
  Bulgaria 0.5 0.8 1.1 0.3 0.3 0.5
  Czech Rep. 0.4 0.8 0.6 - 0.2 0.3
  EU   3/ 14.5 11.4 15.0 10.6 5.4 8.6
  Hungary 0.9 2.1 1.0 0.8 3.1 1.7
  Romania 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.6
  Russian Fed. 0.7 4.5 8.5 0.5 2.6 3.0
  Ukraine 0.1 5.5 6.8 1.6 3.5 4.0
OCEANIA 16.5 16.0 9.0 4.3 4.9 2.0
  Australia 16.5 16.0 9.0 4.3 4.8 1.9
WORLD 100.5 108.6 105.2 107.7 106.7 107.8
  Developing countries 17.8 19.3 19.6 28.4 24.1 25.1
  Developed countries 82.7 89.3 85.6 79.3 82.6 82.7

Source: FAO
Note: Totals computed from unrounded data.
1/ Including wheat flour in wheat grain equivalent, but excluding semolina.
2/ Including Taiwan Province.
3/ Excluding trade between the EU member countries.

Table A.3 b) - WORLD EXPORTS OF CEREALS

Top
  Rice (milled) Total Cereals 1 /
2001 2002
estim.
2003
f'cast
2000/01 2001/02
estim.
2002/03
f'cast
  ( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
ASIA 18.5 21.9 21.0 40.2 41.7 49.4
  China   2/ 2.0 1.9 2.1 12.6 9.2 14.3
  India 1.9 6.5 4.5 4.3 10.0 9.5
  Indonesia - - - 0.1 0.1 0.1
  Japan 0.6 0.6 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.9
  Kazakhstan - - - 4.0 4.2 5.4
  Myanmar 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9
  Pakistan 2.3 1.5 1.5 2.5 2.1 2.5
  Syria - - - 0.1 0.5 0.5
  Thailand 7.5 7.3 7.5 7.8 7.5 7.6
  Turkey - - - 1.7 1.2 1.9
  Viet Nam 3.5 3.2 3.9 3.5 3.3 3.9
AFRICA 0.7 0.4 0.6 4.0 3.2 3.2
  Egypt 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.6
  Ethiopia - - - 0.2 0.2 -
  Nigeria - - - 0.2 0.1 0.1
  South Africa - - - 1.7 1.5 1.6
  Sudan - - - 0.1 0.1 0.1
  Uganda - - - 0.3 0.3 0.1
CENTRAL AMERICA - - - 1.1 1.0 0.8
SOUTH AMERICA 1.4 1.2 1.4 27.8 27.3 21.8
  Argentina 0.4 0.3 0.4 23.9 20.8 18.3
  Brazil - - - 2.3 5.0 2.0
  Paraguay - - - 0.2 0.4 0.2
  Uruguay 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.8
NORTH AMERICA 2.5 3.1 3.4 106.0 104.8 98.7
  Canada - - - 20.6 19.1 11.9
  United States 2.5 3.1 3.4 85.4 85.7 86.7
EUROPE 0.2 0.2 0.2 31.8 43.4 54.9
  Bulgaria - - - 0.8 1.1 1.6
  Czech Rep. - - - 0.5 1.0 0.9
  EU   3/ 0.2 0.2 0.2 25.3 17.0 23.8
  Hungary - - - 1.7 5.2 2.7
  Romania - - - 0.2 1.4 1.1
  Russian Fed. - - - 1.3 7.0 11.5
  Ukraine - - - 1.7 9.0 10.8
OCEANIA 0.6 0.5 0.2 21.5 21.4 11.2
  Australia 0.6 0.5 0.2 21.5 21.3 11.1
WORLD 24.1 27.4 26.8 4/ 232.3 242.7 239.8
  Developing countries 20.1 23.0 22.5 66.3 66.4 67.2
  Developed countries 4.0 4.4 4.3 166.0 176.3 172.7

Source: FAO
Note: Totals computed from unrounded data.
1/ Trade in rice refers to the calendar year of the second year shown.
2/ Including Taiwan Province.
3/ Excluding trade between the EU member countries.
4/ Highly tentative.

Table A.4 - CEREALS: Supply and Utilization in Main Exporting Countries (National Crop Years)

Top
  Wheat 1/ Coarse Grains 2/ Rice (milled basis)
2000/01 2001/02
estim.
2002/03
f'cast
2000/01 2001/02
estim.
2002/03
f'cast
2000/01 2001/02
estim.
2002/03
f'cast
  ( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
  UNITED STATES (June/May) UNITED STATES UNITED STATES (Aug./July)
Opening stocks 25.9 23.8 21.1 48.9 52.7 45.1 0.9 0.9 1.2
Production 60.8 53.3 44.0 273.4 262.3 245.4 5.9 6.7 6.6
Imports 2.4 2.9 2.0 2.4 2.3 2.4 0.3 0.4 0.4
   Total Supply 89.1 80.0 67.2 324.7 317.3 292.8 7.1 8.0 8.2
Domestic use 36.4 32.7 30.6 215.3 217.5 213.8 3.7 3.9 3.9
Exports 28.9 26.2 25.2 56.6 54.7 55.1 2.6 2.9 3.3
Closing stocks 23.8 21.1 11.3 52.7 45.1 24.0 0.9 1.2 1.0
  CANADA (August/July) CANADA THAILAND (Nov./Oct.) 3/
Opening stocks 7.7 9.7 6.5 5.8 4.4 3.6 1.7 1.8 2.5
Production 26.5 20.6 15.7 24.2 22.7 19.8 17.1 17.6 17.1
Imports 0.1 0.1 0.2 2.9 4.0 5.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
   Total Supply 34.3 30.3 22.4 32.9 31.2 28.6 18.8 19.4 19.6
Domestic use 7.6 7.6 8.6 23.9 24.2 23.2 9.4 9.6 9.6
Exports 17.1 16.2 9.5 4.6 3.5 2.5 7.5 7.3 7.5
Closing stocks 9.7 6.5 4.4 4.4 3.6 2.9 1.8 2.5 2.5
  ARGENTINA (Dec./Nov.) ARGENTINA CHINA (Jan./Dec.) 3/ 4/
Opening stocks 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.2 113.0 106.5 92.9
Production 16.0 15.3 13.0 21.7 19.3 18.7 130.1 122.9 121.7
Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4
   Total Supply 16.5 15.9 13.7 22.6 20.5 20.0 243.4 229.7 214.9
Domestic use 4.8 4.9 4.9 8.4 9.1 9.5 134.9 134.9 134.4
Exports 11.2 10.3 8.2 13.0 10.2 9.4 2.0 1.9 2.1
Closing stocks 0.6 0.7 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.0 106.5 92.9 78.4
  AUSTRALIA (Oct./Sept.) AUSTRALIA PAKISTAN (Nov./Oct.) 3/
Opening stocks 3.3 3.8 5.3 0.7 1.4 2.0 1.1 0.9 0.5
Production 22.2 24.0 10.0 11.2 11.8 6.8 4.8 3.9 4.4
Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
   Total Supply 25.5 27.7 15.4 11.9 13.1 8.9 5.9 4.8 5.0
Domestic use 5.7 5.9 4.9 6.0 6.2 6.2 2.7 2.8 2.9
Exports 16.1 16.5 8.6 4.5 4.9 1.7 2.3 1.5 1.5
Closing stocks 3.8 5.3 1.9 1.4 2.0 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.6
  EU (July/June) 5/ EU 5/ VIET NAM (Nov./Oct.) 3/
Opening stocks 12.9 14.5 13.2 20.8 17.0 20.3 3.1 4.0 4.5
Production 105.4 92.1 103.8 108.7 108.1 106.5 21.7 21.3 22.7
Imports 3.2 10.0 10.0 2.7 3.8 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
   Total Supply 121.5 116.6 127.0 132.2 128.8 130.2 24.8 25.3 27.2
Domestic use 92.4 91.9 96.6 104.7 103.2 102.5 17.3 17.6 18.4
Exports 14.6 11.5 15.2 10.6 5.4 8.6 3.5 3.2 3.9
Closing stocks 14.5 13.2 15.2 17.0 20.3 19.2 4.0 4.5 4.9
TOTAL ABOVE                  
Opening stocks 50.4 52.3 46.8 77.0 76.7 72.1 119.7 114.1 101.7
Production 230.9 205.2 186.5 439.2 424.2 397.2 179.7 172.4 172.5
Imports 5.7 13.0 12.4 8.1 10.2 11.3 0.6 0.8 0.7
   Total Supply 287.0 270.6 245.7 524.2 511.0 480.6 300.0 287.3 274.9
Domestic use 146.8 143.1 145.6 358.3 360.2 355.2 168.0 168.8 169.3
Exports 87.9 80.7 66.7 89.3 78.7 77.3 17.8 16.8 18.3
Closing stocks 52.3 46.8 33.3 76.7 72.1 48.1 114.1 101.7 87.3

Source: FAO Note: Totals computed from unrounded data.
1/ Trade data include wheat flour in wheat grain equivalent. For the EU semolina is also included.
2/ Argentina (Dec./Nov.) for rye, barley and oats, (March/February) for maize and sorghum; Australia (November/October) for rye, barley and oats, (March/February) for maize and sorghum; Canada (August/July); EU (July/June); United States (June/May) for rye, barley and oats, (September/August) for maize and sorghum.
3/ Rice trade data refer to the calendar year of the second year shown.
4/ Including Taiwan province.
5/ Excluding trade between the EU member countries.

Table A.5 - WORLD CEREAL STOCKS: Estimated Total Carryovers of Cereals 1/

Top
  Crop Years ending in:
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
estim.
2003
f'cast
  ( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
TOTAL CEREALS 617.9 661.3 683.5 681.3 629.3 576.7 465.9
Wheat 227.4 252.9 259.5 253.9 240.4 217.9 169.8
   held by:              
- main exporters   2/ 36.0 39.3 50.7 50.4 52.3 46.8 33.3
- others 191.4 213.7 208.8 203.6 188.0 171.1 136.5
Coarse Grains 238.8 255.5 266.6 259.3 225.9 210.7 172.5
  held by:              
- main exporters   2/ 46.7 69.3 79.7 77.0 76.7 72.1 48.1
- others 192.0 186.2 186.9 182.3 149.2 138.6 124.4
Rice (milled basis) 151.7 152.9 157.4 168.0 163.1 148.2 123.6
  held by:              
- main exporters   2/ 111.8 115.7 117.2 119.7 114.1 101.7 87.3
         excl. China   3/ 4.5 4.5 4.1 6.7 7.6 8.7 8.9
- others 40.0 37.2 40.1 48.3 49.0 46.6 36.3
BY REGIONS              
Developed Countries 121.6 169.2 171.1 164.7 160.2 162.3 123.7
  Australia 3.2 3.8 3.0 4.2 5.2 7.5 3.1
  EU 24.4 35.1 36.6 34.2 31.9 33.9 34.8
  Canada 14.0 10.4 12.5 13.6 14.1 10.1 7.3
  Hungary 2.3 2.8 2.6 2.0 1.3 1.6 1.3
  Japan 6.7 6.7 6.0 5.7 5.3 4.8 5.1
  Poland 4.2 4.0 4.2 3.7 1.5 2.2 2.0
  Romania 1.2 5.0 3.5 3.6 1.0 2.8 1.8
  Russian Fed. 6.5 18.0 5.8 4.9 6.5 9.6 8.0
  South Africa 2.4 3.7 2.3 1.7 2.9 1.8 1.9
  Ukraine 3.6 4.5 2.2 2.2 2.2 5.0 5.2
  United States 39.9 58.7 77.8 75.6 77.4 67.4 36.4
Developing Countries 496.3 492.2 512.4 516.6 469.1 414.5 342.2
Asia 457.6 456.3 473.5 478.6 434.4 378.1 311.0
  China 3/ 374.0 366.6 374.7 367.6 318.7 271.0 224.8
  India 35.3 42.9 47.3 57.4 62.1 58.3 43.8
  Indonesia 6.9 5.5 5.6 5.9 6.1 3.9 4.4
  Iran, Islamic Rep. of 3.5 2.0 1.6 2.0 1.1 1.3 1.2
  Korea, Rep. of 2.3 2.8 2.8 3.3 3.2 3.5 3.4
  Pakistan 6.3 7.1 8.6 7.9 7.9 4.8 1.3
  Philippines 2.0 2.0 2.6 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.1
  Syria 5.1 4.0 4.2 4.0 3.6 4.4 4.1
  Turkey 6.8 7.4 9.4 8.3 8.7 7.2 5.0
Africa 23.8 21.1 26.4 24.1 21.7 21.6 18.1
  Algeria 2.8 2.1 2.6 2.0 1.3 1.7 1.2
  Egypt 2.9 3.7 4.5 4.1 3.9 3.4 2.7
  Ethiopia 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.8 1.2 0.2
  Morocco 3.8 2.5 4.7 3.0 1.8 1.9 2.1
  Nigeria 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.6 2.2 2.6 2.3
  Tunisia 2.1 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.0
Central America 7.0 5.1 6.2 6.4 6.0 5.9 5.8
  Mexico 5.7 3.9 5.0 4.8 4.5 4.7 4.7
South America 7.7 9.6 6.2 7.4 7.0 8.8 7.2
  Argentina 2.5 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.9 2.0 1.6
  Brazil 2.9 4.9 1.5 2.7 1.8 4.2 3.4
               

Source: FAO Note: Based on official and unofficial estimates. Totals computed from unrounded data.
1/ Stock data are based on an aggregate of carryovers at the end of national crop years and do not represent world stock levels at any point in time.
2/ The major wheat and coarse grains exporters are Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU and the United States. The major rice exporters are China (including Taiwan Province), Pakistan, Thailand, the United States and Viet Nam. See Table A.4 for country details.
3/ Including Taiwan Province.

Table A.6 - SELECTED EXPORT PRICES OF CEREALS AND SOYBEANS

Top
  Wheat Maize Sorghum Soybeans
U.S. No.2 Hard
Red Winter Ord.
Prot.
1 /
U.S. Soft Red
Winter No.2
1 /
Argentina
Trigo Pan
2 /
U.S. No.2
Yellow
1 /
Argentina
2 /
U.S. No.2
Yellow
1 /
U.S. No.2
Yellow
1 /
  ( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . US$/tonne . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
  July/June              
     1998/1999 120 100 116 95 98 92 203
     1999/2000 112 97 112 91 90 89 190
     2000/2001 128 101 124 86 84 93 184
     2001/2002 127 113 119 90 89 95 182
     2002 - January 128 121 115 92 89 97 173
                 July 151 123 137 100 97 104 220
                 August 165 131 138 110 105 115 219
                 September 189 154 153 115 108 120 221
                 October         196 159 155 110 105 121 212
                 November 180 159 136 109 108 122 225
                 December       165 146 130 107 104 117 223
     2003 - January      I       157 139 133 106 104 114 229
                                    II 150 137 135 105 101 112 221
                                    III 153 139 140 105 101 113 223
                                    IV 153 138 143 107 103 114 229

Sources: International Grain Council and USDA.
1/ Delivered U.S. Gulf ports. 2/ Up River f.o.b.

Table A.7 - PRICE INDICES AND SELECTED EXPORT PRICES FOR RICE

Top
Calendar years Export Prices FAO Indices
Thai
100% B

1
/
Thai
broken
2 /
U.S.
Long
grain
3 /
Pakistani
Basmati
4 /
Total Indica Japonica Aromatic
High
quality
Low
quality
January/December ( . . . . . . . . U.S.$/tonne . . . . . . ) (. . . . . . . . 1998-2000=100 . . . . . . . . )
1999 253 192 333 486 101 99 101 105 98
2000 207 143 271 418 84 84 83 83 89
2001 177 135 264 332 74 74 74 76 69
2002 197 151 207 366 72 73 75 67 74
2002 - January 197 145 208 347 72 73 74 71 66
October 193 161 215 397 74 74 77 69 80
November 190 157 215 348 73 73 77 68 76
December 193 151 215 341 72 72 75 67 75
     2003 - January         I 197 148 215 n.a. )        
      II 208 152 202 n.a. )        
      III 208 153 202 369 ) 72 72 75 66 82
      IV 203 153 200 369 )        

Sources: FAO for indices. Rice prices: Jackson Son & Co. (London) Ltd. and other public sources.
Note: The FAO Rice Price Index is based on 16 rice export quotations. 'Quality' is defined by the precentage of broken kernels, with high (low) quality referring to rice with less (equal to or more) than 20 percent brokens. The Sub-Index for Aromatic Rice follows movements in prices of Basmati and Fragrant rice.
1/ White rice, 100% second grade, f.o.b. Bangkok, indicative traded prices. 2/ A1 super, f.o.b. Bangkok, indicative traded prices. 3/ U.S. No.2, 4% brokens f.o.b. 4/ Basmati: ordinary, f.o.b. Karachi.

Table A.8 - PRICE INDICES AND SELECTED INTERNATIONAL PRICES FOR OILCROP PRODUCTS

Top
Marketing years FAO Indices International Prices
Oilseeds Edible/Soap
Fats/Oils
Oilcakes/
Meals
Soybeans
1 /
Soybean
Oil
2 /
Palm Oil
3 /
Soybean
Cake
4 /
Rapeseed
Meal
5 /
October/September (. . . . . . 1990-92=100 . . . . .) (. . . . . . . . . . . . U.S.$/tonne . . . . . . . . )
                   
1997/98   109 154 116 256 634 641 197 138
1998/99   89 125 82 209 483 514 149 104
1999/00 Oct.-Mar. 83 98 87 206 374 356 176 122
  Apr.-Sep 84 84 90 213 337 318 184 125
2000/01 Oct.-Mar. 82 76 98 206 314 254 198 146
  Apr.-Sep 82 86 94 197 356 289 178 135
2001/02 Oct.-Mar. 83 95 100 188 378 323 175 135
  Apr.-Sep 90 107 104 213 445 392 174 122
2002/03 Oct.-Jan. 103 124 105 241 558 445 183 132

Sources: FAO and Oil World.
Note: The FAO indices are calculated using the Laspeyres formula; the weights used are the average export values of each commodity for the 1990-92 period. The indices are based on the international prices of five selected seeds, ten selected oils and fats and seven selected cakes and meals.
1/ Soybeans (US, No.2 yellow, cif Rotterdam). 2/ Soybean oil (Dutch, fob ex-mill). 3/ Palm oil (Crude, cif North West Europe). 4/ Soybean cake (Pellets, 44/45%, Argentina, cif Rotterdam). 5/ Rapeseed meal (34%, Hamburg, fob ex-mill).

Table A.9 - WHEAT AND MAIZE FUTURES PRICES

Top
  March May July September
this year last year this year last year this year last year this year last year
  (. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . US$/tonne . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .)
WHEAT                
December         23 127 108 123 107 113 106 114 107
                      30 121 106 118 105 111 105 112 106
January               7 120 112 119 110 115 109 116 110
                     14 115 113 114 112 113 112 114 112
                     21 117 108 116 109 115 109 116 110
                     28 116 106 115 108 114 108 115 109
MAIZE                
December         23 96 81 97 84 98 87 96 89
                      30 93 79 94 82 96 85 95 87
January               7 94 80 96 83 97 86 96 88
                     14 91 83 92 86 93 88 94 90
                     21 92 83 93 85 94 88 94 90
                     28 94 81 95 84 96 87 95 89

Source: Chicago Board of Trade

Table A.10 - OCEAN FREIGHT RATES FOR WHEAT

Top
  From U.S. Gulf ports to: From North Pacific ports to:
Rotterdam
1/
CIS
Black Sea
1/ 2/
Egypt
(Alexandria)
1/
Bangladesh
1/
China
1 /
Japan
1/
  ( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . US$/tonne. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
July/June            
1997/98 9.60 18.10 11.70 20.17 27.00 28.00
1998/99 9.42 25.45 9.25 18.75 27.00 29.17
1999/2000 12.60 40.97 13.65 18.50 27.00 32.83
2000/2001 13.10 40.97 15.00 18.31 27.00 36.31
2001/2002 11.00 40.97 15.00 18.50 26.92 34.19
2001 - December 11.50 40.97 15.00 18.50 26.00 33.00
2002 - January 11.35 40.97 15.00 18.50 27.00 33.00
           July 10.75 40.97 15.00 18.50 27.00 33.00
           August 10.75 40.97 15.00 18.50 27.00 33.00
           September 10.75 40.97 15.00 18.50 27.00 33.00
           October 10.75 40.97 15.00 18.50 27.00 29.00
           November 10.75 40.97 15.00 18.50 27.00 29.00
           December 10.75 40.97 15.00 18.50 27.00 29.00
2003 - January 10.75 40.97 15.00 18.50 27.00 29.00

Source: International Grain Council
Note: Estimated mid-month rates based on current chartering practices for vessels ready to load three to four weeks ahead.
1/ Size of vessels: Rotterdam over 40 000 tonnes; CIS 20-40 000 tonnes; Egypt over 30 000 tonnes; Bangladesh over 40 000 tonnes; China 20-35 000 tonnes; Japan 15-24 999 tonnes.
2/ Excludes CIS and United States flag vessels.

Table A.11 - SELECTED INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

Top
  Currency
and Unit
Effective
Date
Latest
Quotation
1 month
ago
1 year
ago
Average
1989-91
Sugar (I.S.A. daily price) US cents per lb 28.01.03 8.53 7.97 7.4877 11.4
Coffee (I.C.O. daily price) US cents per lb 24.01.03 56.4 50.1 42.6 76.7
Cocoa (I.C.C.O. daily price) US cents per lb 24.01.03 98.7 93.7 62.4 56.0
Tea (total tea, Mombasa) US$ per kg. 21.01.03 1.53 1.47 1.44 1.5
Bananas (Central America, € per tonne 31.01.03 951 1/ 778 1/ 941 1/ 566
  f.o.b., Hamburg)     840 2/ 728 2/ 775 2/  
Cotton (COTLOOK,
  index 'A' 1-3/32")
US cents per lb 24.01.03 56.4 56.3 43.7 78.5
Wool (64's, London) Pence per kg 24.01.03 579 570 419 466

Source: FAO
1/ EC duty paid, estimated. 2/ Estimated price for EFTA markets.

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