ASL2050 scenario planning and analysis exercise

18 January 2019, Addis Ababa - The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) supported the Government of Ethiopia to develop four plausible future (2050) scenarios for Ethiopia and its cattle dairy and beef systems and to assess their impacts on public health, environment and livelihoods through a participatory and consultative process at a scenario formulation exercise organized for representatives from government, private sector, NGOs and international institutions. 

The four possible scenarios projected were: highly stable open democratic governance and booming resilient economy; highly stable open democratic governance but collapsed fragile economy; highly unstable monstrously corrupt governance but booming resilient economy; and highly unstable monstrously corrupt governance and collapsed fragile economy. 

FAO Ethiopia facilitated the scenario formulation exercise in collaboration with the Federal Ministry of Agriculture. This exercise was made using available projections and foresight methodologies and active participation of key partners.  During the exercise, partners reviewed the past and current situations of the country and its cattle systems; and agreed upon major mega trends and uncertainties in key areas such as governance, economy, environment, social, technological and societal values that will shape the future of the country in the coming decades.   

Furthermore, stakeholders were engaged in a strategic conversation to build upon long-term livestock projections to articulate country and livestock scenarios for 2050, including their impact on public health, the environment and livelihoods; and discussed endemic zoonoses, emerging infectious diseases and antimicrobial resistance in the future scenarios using the future wheel approach among others.  

As a result of the scenario formulation exercise, detailed report on the plausible future scenarios of the country and the anticipated impacts associated with the long-term development of the livestock sector has been prepared.  This will form the basis of consultations and dialogue among livestock, health and environment sectors stakeholders seeking to identify opportunities and threats and to agree upon priority reforms and investments. 

FAO is implementing a USAID-funded multi-year Project, the Africa Sustainable Livestock 2050 (ASL2050), in Burkina Faso, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria and Uganda. The goal of the ASL2050 is to ensure that national, regional governments, and international institutions, are in a position to formulate and implement policies and investments that support a sustainable growth of livestock.

For further information, contact:

Tadele Mirkena (PhD)

National Animal Production & Value Chain Expert

Emergency Center for Transboundary Animal Diseases (ECTAD)

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)

Email: [email protected]

Tel. Office: +251 11 647 8888 Ext 231 (Office)

Feleseta Kassaye Woldtsadique

Risk Communication and One Health Outreach Coordinator

Emergency Center for Transboundary Animal Diseases (ECTAD)

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)

Email: [email protected]

Tel. Office: +251 11 647 8888 Ext 238