The major global suppliers of tilapia, namely China, Africa and Latin America, saw increasing demand in their domestic markets in 2023. Meanwhile, Latin American producers are also showing increased focus on international markets, with further currency depreciations against the US dollar likely to encourage exports.

Production

Tilapia continues to be a prominent farmed fish species, and more production is expected in 2023. The value of the global tilapia market in 2023 is likely to increase between three and five percent. Latin American suppliers are pushing for increased production to meet growing tilapia consumption. While disease disruptions in the first quarter of 2023 affected several markets in Latin America, the impacts so far are limited because effective measures were taken to safeguard production. Brazilian tilapia production is expected to increase between five and seven percent in 2023, helped by strong domestic demand and lower feed costs. Mexican tilapia production reached 101 749 tonnes in 2022, ranking third in Latin America production, and is expecting a steady growth of three percent year-on-year. In Columbia, tilapia production growth in 2023 is expected to reach ten percent year-on-year.

Asian production is likely to see steady growth in 2023. China's tilapia production will remain large in volume but may see a slight drop in 2023. The bleak market in 2022 hurt the confidence of many Chinese tilapia producers, with some producers switching to farm other more profitable species, such as mandarin fish and shrimp. In Southeast Asia, Indonesia is developing tilapia supply chains to meet the increasing global need. There was a 17 percent year-on-year increase in Indonesian tilapia supply to the global market in the first quarter of 2023.

Market and Trade

China, the largest tilapia exporter, maintained a stable supply to international markets, while other Asian countries gained market share. Chinese exports of frozen whole tilapia in the first quarter of 2023 only increased by 0.1 percent in volume compared to the same period last year. The main buyers of China's frozen whole tilapia have also changed from the United States to African countries. The unit price of frozen whole tilapia exported from China to African countries (with the exception of South Africa) saw a significant drop in the first quarter of the year. The value of frozen whole tilapia exports to Côte d'Ivoire declined by 17 percent year-on-year, while increasing by 65 percent in volume. Côte d'Ivoire absorbed some 48 percent of frozen whole tilapia exports from China in the first quarter of 2023. Other Southeast Asian countries remain strong competitors in the international market. Indonesia's tilapia exports to the United States of America and Canada had a 20 percent year-on-year increase in the first quarter of 2023, and India's seafood is estimated to have a surging increase, reaching by 16 percent year-on-year in 2023, marking a second consecutive year of high growth.

China's tilapia exports have not rebounded to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels yet, partially as a result of the Chinese domestic market receiving more attention. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic helped to shape new eating preferences, with pre-prepared foods gaining increasing popularity.

US imports of tilapia started the year with a relatively stagnant market. Total US tilapia imports between January–March 2023 were 44 262 tonnes worth USD 170.5 million, a decline of 14.8 percent in volume and 15.8 percent in value compared to the same period in 2022. China remains the main supplier to the US market, with 30 131 tonnes worth USD 87.3 million, followed by Colombia with 4 279 tonnes worth USD 29.2 million.

In Latin America, the outlook for the tilapia market is positive in 2023. Colombia, Honduras and Costa Rica supplied 88 percent of the US imports of chilled tilapia fillets in the first quarter of the year. Columbia is expecting a 27 percent increase in exports in 2023, while Honduras is in negotiations with China to increase its imports from China. High levels of mortality in Colombian tilapia production added upward pressure on prices, but this was moderated to some extent by the increase in supply from Brazil and Costa Rica.

Brazilian exports dropped in 2022, but are expected to grow in 2023. The United States of America was the leading export market for Brazilian tilapia in the first quarter of 2023, with a 78 percent share in volume and 89 percent in value. Japan is ranked the third largest buyer of Brazilian tilapia and experience higher prices , with unit values up by 99 percent compared to the same period of the previous year. Increasing domestic demand and slowing production expansion made Brazilian producers more focused on domestic sales. However, the strength of the US dollar against the Brazilian real still makes exporting attractive to Brazilian producers.

Prices

Prices on the Chinese domestic market have returned to around pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels. Whole live tilapia produced in Guangdong province (DAP, Guangdong) of size 300-500 g was selling for CNY 6.35 per kg (USD 0.93) from January–March of 2023, increasing 2 percent from last quarter; this is still 20 percent lower than the same period last year. Import prices for the United States of America in Q1 2023 for frozen fillets and fresh fillets were down 9 percent from Q4 2022, but up 10 percent year-on-year. In Latin American markets, the average price of whole tilapia fillet in Brazil is USD 6.45 per kg in Q1 2023, while frozen whole tilapia is USD 2.08 per kg.

Outlook

Tilapia output will increase in 2023, helped by falling feed prices and logistical costs. Asian countries are expected to maintain a stable level of exports, with China still dominating trade. Producers in Latin America, Africa and Southern Asia will continue to increase tilapia production. With an expansion of domestic markets in major suppliers, there will continue to be greater market opportunities in these segments.