FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief
The Cereal Supply and Demand Brief provides an up-to-date perspective of the world cereal market. The monthly brief is supplemented by a detailed assessment of cereal production as well as supply and demand conditions by country/region in the quarterly Crop Prospects and Food Situation. More in-depth analyses of world markets for cereals, as well as other major food commodities, are published biannually in Food Outlook.
Monthly release dates for 2014: 06 February, 06 March, 03 April, 08 May, 05 June, 03 July, 11 September, 09 October, 06 November, 04 December.
Latest estimates confirm large increase in 2013 world cereal output; early prospects for 2014 wheat crops mostly favourable
Release date: 05/12/2013
FAO’s latest forecast for world cereal production in 2013 has been revised upward marginally (2 million tonnes) since November to a new high of almost 2 500 million tonnes (including rice in milled terms), 8.4 percent more than last year and some 6 percent above the previous record in 2011. The latest revision mostly reflects adjustments to maize output estimates in the United States, the Russian Federation and Ukraine, which had become firmer towards the completion of the harvests. Based on latest figures, the overall increase in world cereal output this year comprises a rise of 7.8 percent in wheat production, of 12 percent for coarse grains and of only 1 percent for rice. Early prospects for the winter wheat crops already planted in the northern hemisphere, to be harvested in 2014, are mostly favourable. Among the major producers, areas are tentatively estimated to have increased in the EU, China, the United States and India, while reductions are reported in the Russian Federation and Ukraine. Although many of the 2014 wheat crops across the world will not be planted until next year, these early indications suggest that, overall, wheat plantings for the coming harvest could increase slightly compared to this year.
The FAO forecast for global cereal utilization in 2013/14 has been lowered to 2 413 million tonnes, slightly below the November forecast but still 4 percent higher than in 2012/13. The projected growth in world utilization of cereals in 2013/14 concerns mostly food and feed, which are expected to increase by 1.7 percent and 6.3 percent respectively compared to the previous season. Larger supplies and lower prices are expected to boost feed use of cereals in 2013/14, especially of maize. Total feed use of maize in 2013/14 is projected to reach 546 million tonnes, 8.5 percent higher than in 2012/13, with most of this growth to occur in China (up 9.6 percent or 13 million tonnes from 2012/13), following another record crop, and in the United States (up 20 percent or 22 million tonnes), driven by this year’s recovery in production to a record level. The forecast increase in the food use of cereals in 2013/14 is largely in line with world population growth.
World cereal stocks are predicted to increase to 572 million tonnes by the close of the 2014 crop seasons, 13.4 percent, or nearly 68 million tonnes, more than in the previous year. This forecast is almost 9 million tonnes higher than reported in November, reflecting upward revisions to ending stocks of wheat and coarse grains, while ending rice inventories were reduced slightly. The sharp expansion in world cereal stocks this season would result in the global cereal stocks-to-use ratio reaching 23.5 percent, well above the historical low of 18.4 percent registered in 2007/08. The ratio for coarse grains is expected to improve the most, from the historical low of 14 percent to a more comfortable level of nearly 18 percent. The recovery would be mainly sustained by a sharp rebound in maize inventories in the United States following this year’s record harvest. Global wheat stocks are also heading toward a significant recovery, while rice inventories are expected to increase for the tenth consecutive year, leading to an all-time high stocks-to-use ratio of nearly 36 percent.
The FAO forecast for world cereal trade in 2013/14 has been raised by 3.4 million tonnes since November, to 317.8 million tonnes, now 2.7 percent, or 8.4 million tonnes, higher than the volume of trade in 2012/13. This month’s upward revision mainly reflects higher anticipated maize exports from Ukraine, boosted by this year’s record domestic production and strong world demand. World trade in coarse grains is forecast at 137.5 million tonnes, 2.5 million tonnes more than was previously reported and 5.3 million tonnes higher than in 2012/13. World wheat trade in 2013/14 is put at 142 million tonnes, up 2.3 million tonnes from 2012/13 and unchanged from November but the forecast for trade in rice in 2014 has been raised by 900 000 tonnes to 38.3 million tonnes, now 800 000 tonnes higher than in the previous year and almost matching the all-time high achieved in 2012.
* For more detailed analysis see the December 2013 issue of Crop Prospects and Food Situation - released on 5 December.
1/ Production data refer to the calendar year of the first year shown. Rice production is expressed in milled terms.
2/ Production plus opening stocks.
3/ Trade data refer to exports based on a July/June marketing season for wheat and coarse grains and on a January/December marketing season for rice (second year shown).
4/ May not equal the difference between supply and utilization due to differences in individual country marketing years.
5/ Major wheat exporters are Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU, Kazakhstan, Russian Federation, Ukraine and the United States; major coarse grain exporters are Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, the EU, Russian Federation, Ukraine and the United States; major rice exporters are India, Pakistan, Thailand, the United States, and Viet Nam. Disappearance is defined as domestic utilization plus exports for any given season.