The situation

Emergency preparedness for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) remains a critical issue for veterinary services across Europe. The introduction of FMD continues to pose a significant risk to the region, with potentially devastating consequences. Most European countries have not faced an FMD incursion for many decades, resulting in a lack of direct experience in managing such situations. 

Given that cattle, small ruminants, pigs, and even wildlife could be involved in FMD outbreaks, there are no directly comparable animal diseases to draw experience from. Therefore, we need tools to better understand the patterns and consequences of an epidemic. Simulation models are powerful tools for studying the spread and control of infectious diseases and can support preparedness planning for effective outbreak control. This will help countries develop improved contingency plans and appropriate training, resourcing, and exercises.

The EuFMD has developed EuFMDiS (European FMD Spread Model), a multi-country FMD spread simulation model adapted from the Australian Animal Disease Spread Model (AADIS). 

EuFMDiS is a powerful, robust, and flexible modelling tool that allows countries to evaluate their preparedness and the completeness of their contingency plans. This model can be used to assess various control options, such as movement restrictions and vaccination strategies, and their implications for disease control and eradication. The model is also relevant in assisting authorities to evaluate the resources needed to manage an outbreak, including vaccine supplies.

Development and Implementation

EuFMDiS was initially developed as a pilot project with the collaboration of seven central European countries: Italy, Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Romania, and Slovenia. For these countries, the model can be used to study outbreaks within and between these countries (i.e., on a single-country or multi-country basis). The model has since been implemented on a standalone (single country) basis for Denmark, Estonia, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, North Macedonia. Further development work and data collection are being undertaken to enable use of the model in other Member Nations, including France, Malta, and Sweden. 

EuFMD is also working to integrate new features into the model, such as biosecurity measures, wildlife spillover, shared pastures, animal disposal (rendering) capacity, the availability of diagnostic resources, animal welfare, and post-outbreak management.

Adaptation to Other Diseases

The model has been adapted to other FAST diseases, including peste des petits ruminants (PPR) and sheep pox and goat pox (SPGP), with further adaptation to lumpy skin disease (LSD) currently under development. In the future, EuFMDiS could be extended to model disease spread on a pan-European basis.

EuFMDiS Modelling Centre

EuFMD has established the EuFMDiS Modelling Centre to support the integration of the EuFMDiS model into the contingency planning processes of Member Nations and enhance their emergency response capabilities, particularly where their in-house modelling capabilities may be limited. This centre of excellence comprises a team of specialists in modelling and risk assessment who can design and run simulations using the EuFMDiS model from start to finish, either for individual Member Nations or several neighbouring countries aiming to simulate cross-boundary epidemic spread.

The Centre also organizes training courses for EuFMDiS users and one-to-one sessions to address specific issues. Furthermore, it collaborates with universities and research institutions to assist with conducting simulations and training exercises, as well as expanding the model to new requirements and potential new diseases.