Reference Date: 03-September-2026

Low rainfall likely to have curbed 2026 cereal production

Harvesting of the 2026 main season cereal crops (maize, millet, rice, and sorghum) was completed in July. Although official estimates on cereal crop production are not yet available, remote sensing analysis indicates that yields are likely to have declined year on year and production is expected to be at an average- to below‑average level in 2026.

The main 2025/26 cropping season, stretching from September to July, was largely characterized by below‑average cumulative rainfall amounts. In the central cereal‑growing provinces of Benguela, Bié and Huambo, which together account for about 50 percent of the national maize output, monthly rainfall totals were consistently below average between October 2025 and March 2026, including during critical crop development stages. Cumulative rainfall amounts over this period were about 50 percent lower than the long‑term average, resulting in poor vegetation conditions in cropped areas. Heavy rainfall in April arrived too late to substantially improve crop conditions and, in some localized areas, caused flooding.

In the southern provinces of Cuando Cubango and Cunene, where most millet and sorghum are grown, rainfall totals were also lower than average, but the shortfall was less pronounced than in the central provinces. As a result, millet and sorghum yields are expected to be close to the five‑year average.

Looking ahead to the 2026/27 cropping season, early forecasts point to a higher probability of lower‑than‑average rainfall amounts in the first half of the season. This outlook is influenced by the El Niño event which emerged in June and is typically associated with reduced rainfall totals across much of Southern Africa.

Food inflation slows but remains elevated

According to the latest data from the Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE) annual headline inflation was estimated at just over 9.3 percent in July 2026, down from 10.1 percent in June. Annual inflation for food and non‑alcoholic beverages stood at 10.4 percent in July 2026. Despite the continued slowdown in the overall inflation rate, food and non‑alcoholic beverages remained the main driver of inflation, contributing 6.30 percentage points to the annual increase in the general price level.

A 5 percent cut to the diesel fuel subsidy in early June could raise transport costs and potentially add upward pressure to food prices in the coming months.

Poor harvests likely to aggravate acute food insecurity

The expected decline in cereal production could aggravate acute food insecurity in 2026 and early 2027 by reducing food supplies from own production, crop‑sale income and agricultural labour opportunities. Below‑average rainfall is also likely to have degraded pasture conditions, worsening livestock body conditions and potentially depressing sale prices, with negative implications for livestock‑dependent households.

At the same time, although headline inflation has eased, food and transport costs remain elevated, keeping market‑dependent poor households in both urban and rural areas under pressure. Weather forecasts point to a dry start to the 2026/27 cropping season, linked to El Niño conditions, posing a further risk to food security conditions later in 2026 and early 2027.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS)
https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .