Reference Date: 10-November-2023

Paddy production forecast at record level in 2023

Harvesting of the 2023 “Aman” paddy crop, which accounts for 35 percent of the annual output, is underway and will continue until January 2024. Production is forecast at above‑average level, mostly due to anticipated high yields. Localized losses of standing crops occurred in the Chattogram Division due to heavy rains and floods last August. Harvesting of the 2023 “Boro” and “Aus” paddy crops, accounting for 55 and 10 percent of the annual output, respectively, was completed earlier in the year. The “Boro” paddy production is estimated by FAO at record high levels of 31.1 million tonnes, reflecting some area expansions and bumper yields. The output of the “Aus” paddy crop is estimated to be at a below‑average level. In aggregate, the total paddy production in 2023 is forecast at record 58.5 million tonnes.

The 2023 maize cropping season finalized last July, and production is estimated at record 4.7 million tonnes, mostly attributed to large sowings driven by robust demand and elevated prices during planting operations. Favourable weather conditions and widespread use of high‑yielding seed varieties supported above‑average yields.

The production of the 2023 wheat crop, harvested last April, is officially estimated at near average 1.1 million tonnes.

Cereal import requirements forecast slightly below average in 2023/24

Cereal imports consist mostly of wheat, that cover 80 percent of country’s consumption needs, plus some minor quantities of rice and maize. In 2023/24 marketing year (July/June), total cereal import requirements are forecast at slightly below‑average level of 8.6 million tonnes. Imports of rice in calendar 2024 are forecast at a reduced level of 250 000 tonnes. Imports of wheat are projected at near average 6.1 million tonnes. Imports of maize are forecast to be at above average 2.1 million tonnes, driven by steady demand for feed by the livestock and fish industries.

In the 2022/23 marketing year, cereal imports were well below average constrained by country’s low import capacity due to dwindling foreign currency reserves and the significant depreciation of the taka. As the national currency continues to weaken and foreign currency reserves are low, the country is likely to face challenges to fully cover the import requirements also in 2023/24.

Between January 2022 and September 2023, the taka depreciated gradually against the United States dollar, overall losing 30 percent of its value.

High food inflation limits access to food for vulnerable households

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis , 11.9 million people were estimated to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) from May to September 2023, up from 8.9 million estimated in the March–April 2023 period.

Despite record cereal harvests in 2022 and 2023, which have improved food availability, concerns about access to food remain due to persistent high food inflation that diminished the purchasing power of vulnerable households. According to Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, food inflation has gradually strengthened since August 2022, reaching 12.4 percent on a yearly basis last September, the highest level in 12 years. The high food inflation rate is attributed to the high costs of production and transport that makes domestically grown cereals expensive. Reduced cereal imports, especially of wheat, a key staple in the country, coupled with the significant depreciation of the local currency resulted in strong price increases, contributing to the inflationary pressure.

As of October 2023, about 1 million Rohingya refugees from Myanmar are residing in the country, mostly in the Cox’s Bazar District, and rely entirely on humanitarian aid.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .