Reference Date: 16-February-2024

Below‑average cereal output expected in 2023 due to low planted area with maize and oats

Harvesting of the 2023 crops of wheat and oats is ongoing. Satellite imagery before the start of the harvest in December 2023 points to average vegetation conditions in the key producing regions of Araucanía, Biobío and Maule. The 2023 wheat production is expected to be near average. Output of oats is expected at a below‑average level due to a contraction in area sown, officially estimated to be 20 percent below the five‑year average.

The 2023 aggregate cereal production is expected at a below‑average level of 2.5 million tonnes, as a result of low sowings of maize and oats crops.

Area sown to 2024 maize crop officially estimated at a record low level

The 2024 maize crop, planted during the last quarter of 2023, is currently at vegetative and flowering stages. According to an official survey, plantings are estimated at a record low of 45 000 hectares, nearly 30 percent below the five‑year average. Planted area with maize has been declining during the last ten years due to the low profitability of the crop. Low prices at planting time further curbed the 2024 area sown. Rainfall amounts between February and April are forecast at below‑average levels, likely constraining yields.

Cereal import requirements in 2023/24 forecast at slightly below‑average levels

Cereal import requirements in the 2023/24 marketing year (April/March) are forecast at a slightly below‑average level of 3.8 million tonnes, due to ample carryover stocks from large cereal imports in 2022/23.

Retail prices of staple food higher year‑on‑year in January 2024

In retail markets, prices of potatoes increased sharply during the third quarter of 2023, reflecting tight domestic supplies due to the below‑average production for the second consecutive year. Prices weakened between November 2023 and January 2024, but remained more than 65 percent above their year‑earlier levels. Prices of bread strengthened in January after short‑lived declines during the last two months of 2023. Prices of rice have been on the rise since May 2023 due to high export prices from Argentina and Paraguay, the country’s key rice suppliers. As of January 2024, retail prices of rice were 11 percent higher year‑on‑year.

By contrast, wholesale prices of wheat declined seasonally in January 2024 and were 30 percent lower than a year before, following trends in international markets.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .