Reference Date: 28-July-2026

Area planted to 2026 wheat crop preliminary forecast at below-average level

Planting of the 2026 wheat and oats crop is ongoing in the main producing central Bío-Bío, Ñuble and Araucanía regions. Although no official forecast is available yet, the area planted to wheat crop is anticipated at below‑average level. Lower year‑on‑year wheat prices and high production costs of fuel and fertilizers curtailed grain profitability, discouraging farmers’ decision to plant. Differently, oats sowings are expected at above‑average level. Tight market supplies from the 2025 low output pressured prices upward, boosting oat competitivity compared to other grains and resulting in an above-average extension of the area sown. Forecast of abundant rainfall amounts between September and November in central regions is likely to favour wheat and oat crop development, boosting yield prospects.

Record‑low maize plantings in 2026

Production is officially estimated to be below average, although slightly rebounding from the previous two years' low output. The area planted reached a record‑low level in 2026, due to a reduction in maize grain profitability from rising input costs. Additionally, high competitivity of imported grains discouraged planting intentions, in line with a ten‑year trend of contraction in the area planted. However, conducive precipitation amounts in the first quarter of 2026 in the main producing O’Higgins and Maule regions, coinciding with crop emergence and development stages, boosted crop yields, partially offsetting the contraction in plantings.

Cereal import requirements in 2026/27 anticipated slightly above average

About 60 percent of the country’s cereal consumption needs are usually covered by imports. In the 2026/27 marketing year (April/March), cereal import requirements are preliminarily forecast at 4 million tonnes, slightly above the five‑year average and close to the previous year, reflecting a nearly stable demand of wheat grain and maize imports from swine and poultry industries.

Wheat grain prices lower year‑on‑year in June 2026, due to large imports

Wholesale prices of wheat grain increased continuously from March to May 2026, pressured by limited seasonal availabilities, and were about 11 percent below their level of the previous year in May 2026, reflecting ample market supply from above‑average import amounts between April 2025 and March 2026.

In retail markets, prices of rice were on the rise in April and May 2026, before falling by 5 percent month‑on‑month in June, driven by improved seasonal supplies from the ongoing harvest, and were about 10 percent lower than the previous year, in line with declining international quotations. Retail prices of potatoes strengthened continuously from October 2025 to June 2026, reaching a level about 16 percent above the previous year, reflecting higher production costs from increased fuel and fertilizer prices. Bread prices were nearly stable from April to June 2026, at a slightly lower year‑on‑year price level, which reflected the decline of wheat grain prices.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .