Reference Date: 21-July-2026

Maize and paddy output in 2026 anticipated below average due to low plantings

The harvest of the 2026 minor season maize crop, accounting for about 30 percent of total production, started in July. Output is anticipated to remain below average for the fourth consecutive year, largely reflecting the continued decline in the area planted. Rising production costs and lower year-on-year prices of both yellow and white maize grains at planting times reduced crop profitability, discouraging domestic plantings and increasing demand for more competitively priced imports from the United States of America, the country’s main supplier. Vegetation conditions are generally favourable in the main producing central departments, although some localized dry spells in April and May 2026 adversely affected crops at maturation and grain‑filling stages.

Planting of the main season maize crops is expected to start in August. Low maize prices and forecast of drier‑than‑average weather conditions associated with El Niño event between August and October 2026 are expected to discourage sowing, leading to a below‑average planted area.

Harvesting operations of the 2026 main season paddy crops are underway. Abundant rainfall amounts from March to May 2026 provided conducive conditions for crop development in the main producing central and eastern llanos regions, where paddy cultivation is mostly rain-fed. Planted area is estimated at below‑average level, in line with a downward trend in domestic rice prices that started in 2024 following declining international quotations. High production costs due to rising fuel and fertilizer prices also reduced crop profitability, discouraging farmers’ decision to plant. As a result, aggregate paddy production in 2026, including the minor season harvested in the second quarter of the year, is anticipated at below average 2.5 million tonnes.

Cereal import requirements in 2026/2027 anticipated above average

About 75 percent of the country’s cereal consumption needs are met through imports. Cereal import requirements in the 2026 marketing year (January/December) are forecast at 10.7 million tonnes, about 17 percent above the previous five‑year average.

The forecast includes above-average maize imports of 8.2 million tonnes, reflecting the rising demand for yellow maize from the feed industry and for white maize for human consumption. Import demand has grown steadily since the phase‑out of maize tariffs in 2023 under the U.S.-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement (CTPA) . This trend was further supported by the appreciation of the Colombian peso against the United States dollar since late 2024, which improved the competitiveness of imported maize. Wheat imports are forecast at near average 1.9 million tonnes, reflecting stable demand for food consumption.

Prices of maize, wheat flour and rice lower year‑on‑year in June 2026

In Bogota, wholesale prices of yellow maize strengthened seasonally from March to June 2026, ahead of the start of the minor season harvest, but remained moderately below their level of one year before reflecting above‑average import volumes throughout the year.

Prices of wheat flour strengthened in June 2026, reflecting a yearly contraction in import volumes between January and April 2026. However, wheat prices remained slightly below their year‑earlier levels, in line with lower international prices in Canada, the country’s main source of imports.

As of June 2026, prices of rice were mostly stable across most monitored markets, supported by adequate supply and were moderately below their level of one year earlier, underpinned by ample availability from 2025 above‑average output.

About 6.6 million people estimated in need of food and nutrition assistance in 2026

According to the OCHA’s 2026 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan (HNRP), about 6.6   million people are estimated to be in need of food and nutrition assistance in 2026 . However, food security and nutrition interventions are expected to prioritize only about 670 100 people, due to limited availability of financial resources.

Food security conditions continue to deteriorate amid armed violence, climate shocks and weakening purchasing power. From January to June 2026 , 568 100 people were reported to be affected by climate-related events, while 754 200 people were exposed to armed violence , often causing forced mobility. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), about 7.1 million people are estimated to be internally displaced in the country as of April 2026.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .