Reference Date: 04-May-2026

Torrential precipitation at start of 2026 long‑rains

In major unimodal rainfall growing areas of Central, Rift Valley and Western provinces, where the rainy season spans from February to August, seasonal rains had a timely onset and have been characterized so far by exceptionally high amounts. In high potential cropping areas of the southwestern maize basket (Bungoma, Lugari, Kericho, Nakuru, Nandi North, Nandi South, Trans Nzoia and Uasin Gishu counties), cumulative rainfall amounts between early February and late March 2026 were more than three times the long-term average. The abundant rainfall amounts were overall beneficial for planting of 2026 long‑rains main season cereal crops, to be harvested from October onwards. However, excessively high rainfall amounts may also raise the risk of waterlogging and localized crop stress, potentially affecting early crop development in poorly drained areas.

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East poses risks to the country’s agricultural sector by disrupting trade flows and supply chains and increasing input costs. Imports of fertilizers have already been delayed, affecting their timely application at the beginning of the 2026 cropping season, particularly in market‑oriented agricultural areas of western parts of the country. As a result, reduced application rates are expected to affect crop yields.

According to the latest weather forecast by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Predictions and Application Centre (ICPAC) , above‑average precipitation amounts are expected between April and June 2026. However, a transition of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions from neutral to El Niño in June 2026 is likely to result in below‑average rainfall amounts between June and September, with a negative impact on yields. A close monitoring of weather conditions is warranted.

In marginal bimodal rainfall southeastern and coastal areas, where the long‑rains typically extend from March to May, the 2026 rainy season had an early onset in mid‑February 2026. As of end‑March, cumulative rainfall amounts were between three and four times the long-term average, supporting crop germination and early development, although excessive rainfall may also have caused localized disruptions in poorly drained areas. Crops in these areas are harvested in July and August, and compared to western unimodal high potential areas, agricultural systems are less input intensive. As a result, a forecast of below‑average rains from June onwards and ongoing fertilizer supply constraints are expected to have a limited impact on yields, and early production prospects are comparatively more favourable than in western high‑potential areas. However, cereal production from these areas accounts for only a small share of the national output.

Above‑average early season rains improving rangeland conditions

In northern and northeastern pastoral areas, the March‑May long ‑ rains were characterized by abundant rainfall amounts in March 2026, more than three times the long-term average, leading to a substantial regeneration of rangeland resources. However, in northeastern and some eastern areas (Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Tana River counties) pasture conditions in March remained below‑average following a severe drought in late 2025 (Vegetation Condition Index map). As of February 2026, livestock body conditions were generally fair to good across the Arid and Semi‑Arid Lands (ASALs) covering most of the country. By contrast, in the drought-affected counties, body conditions were assessed to be poor in Mandera County and from poor to fair in Wajir, Garissa and Tana River counties, although above‑average seasonal rains are supporting pasture and fodder regeneration, contributing to gradual improvements. Following recurrent poor rainy seasons, which affected conception rates and led to animal deaths and distress sales, herd sizes and milk production in February 2026 were on average 50 and 25 percent, respectively, below average.

Prices of maize higher than one year earlier in February 2026 due to high fuel costs

The average retail price of maize seasonally increased by 5 percent between November 2025 and February 2026, when it was 15 percent higher year‑on‑year, mainly due to high fuel prices that inflated transport costs.

In southeastern and coastal marginal agriculture areas, where the recently harvested short‑rains crops had a dismal performance due to drought conditions during the 2025 October‑December rainy season, maize prices in February 2026 were up to about 20 percent higher year‑on‑year.

In pastoral areas, livestock prices generally declined between late 2025 and early 2026 as animal body conditions deteriorated. In northwestern areas (Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu counties) goat prices declined moderately, by about 7 percent on average, and in February 2026 they were about 5 percent higher year‑on‑year. By contrast, in drought-affected northeastern areas, prices decreased more sharply reflecting the substantial deterioration of animal body condition. For example, in Wajir and Mandera counties, prices of goats declined by 25 to 50 percent between September 2025 and February 2026, when they were 30 to 50 lower than a year earlier.

With maize prices rising by an average of 7 percent across all pastoral areas, livestock‑to‑cereal terms of trade for pastoralists showed only marginal year-on-year declines in northwestern areas, while they sharply deteriorated in northeastern areas. For example, in Wajir and Mandera counties, the maize equivalent of a medium‑sized goat decreased from 55 kg in February 2025 to 30‑35 kg in February 2026.

High levels of food insecurity due to poor seasonal rains in late 2025

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis , about 3.7 million people (over 20 percent of the analysed population) are estimated to face IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or worse levels of acute food insecurity between April and June 2026 in the Arid and Semi‑Arid Lands (ASALs), representing a 32 percent increase year‑on‑year.

The high levels and prevalence of food insecurity are mainly due to the poor performance of the 2025 October‑December short‑rains, which severely affected crops and livestock.

Households in drought‑affected Wajir, Mandera and Tana River counties are of particular concern. In these areas, the highest prevalence of food insecurity is reported, with 40 to 60 percent of the population estimated to face severe acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] or worse). These three counties also account for about 65 percent of the total number of people estimated in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency).

The situation is expected to persist until the end of the long‑rains in May 2026, after which harvests in marginal and coastal southeastern areas in June and July, along with enhanced livestock body conditions, productivity and marketability, will improve food availability and access.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .