Reference Date: 16-July-2026

Mixed weather conditions affect 2026 cereal production prospects

Harvesting of the 2026 winter wheat and barley crops started in May 2026 and is expected to be completed by late July. Dry weather conditions between October and November 2025 delayed planting operations and reduced planted area in most parts of the country, negatively affecting yield prospects. Although rainfall improved from March 2026 onwards in some parts of the country, precipitation amounts remained significantly below average in the eastern region, particularly in the major cereal producing Al Jabal Al Akhdar province. Total cereal production in 2026 is forecast at about 150 000 tonnes, nearly 20 percent below the five‑year average.

Cereal import requirements in 2026/27 marketing year forecast above average

Cereal import requirements for the 2026/27 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 3.3 million tonnes, nearly 7 percent above the average level. Wheat import requirements, which account for more than 40 percent of the total cereal imports, are forecast at 1.5 million tonnes, about 12 percent above the average, reflecting the country's heavy reliance on imports to meet domestic consumption needs, coupled with the expected below-average wheat production in 2026.

Food inflation rate increased in 2026

Food inflation rate increased by about 18 percent year‑on‑year in May 2026, largely reflecting the depreciation of the Libyan dinar, which weakened by about 15 percent compared to a year earlier and increased the cost of imported food commodities.

Funding shortfall constrains humanitarian assistance to vulnerable households in 2026

Political and economic instability continue to undermine livelihoods and access to essential services. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), more than 110 000 refugees were registered in the country as of April 2026. Humanitarian assistance remains constrained by funding shortages, limiting support to vulnerable groups, including refugees, migrants and internally displaced people.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .