Reference Date: 24-March-2025

Localized conflicts and early winter floods dampen 2025 cereal production

Localized conflicts, particularly in southwestern and northwestern regions, continue to disrupt agricultural activities and supplies. According to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) , the conflict has forced many farmers to abandon their land, with damaged irrigation systems and parched fields limiting food production capacity. Insecurity is also weakening the country’s ability to manage climate-related shocks, such as droughts and floods, which are compounding the impacts on agriculture. Additionally, according to the Commission for Controlling the Desert Locust in the Western Region (CLCPRO) , Libya faced a severe locust infestation in early 2025, further undermining crop yields and food security. Furthermore, heavy rains in December 2024 and January 2025, especially in the northwestern key cereal‑producing region, are likely to hamper yield prospects for 2025 winter crops. Heavy precipitation amounts submerged infrastructure, causing power outages and disruptions in internal movements. Referring to earth observation data, as of February 2025, biomass is below the average in the northwestern region.

Below‑average cereal production estimated in 2024

Cereal production in 2024 is estimated at 164 000 tonnes, about 22 percent below the average, reflecting rainfall deficits, high temperatures in northwestern coastal areas and high prices of inputs, limiting cereal yields.

Cereal import requirements in 2024/25 marketing year forecast slightly above average

Cereal import requirements for the 2024/25 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at above‑average 3.2 million tonnes. Wheat imports, which account for a large portion of total cereal imports, are forecast at 1.4 million tonnes, about 4 percent above the average. The country’s capacity to import is highly driven by revenues from oil exports, a key source of foreign currency.

Inflation rate increased gradually in 2024

The inflation rate increased gradually in 2024, reaching 2.3 percent in December 2024, up from 1.8 percent in December 2023. The annual food inflation rate hovered at 3.5 percent in December 2024, driven by increases in fresh fruits, dairy products, eggs and cereals prices.

Inflows of refugees persist in 2025

According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), as of mid‑February 2025, about 240 000 Sudanese refugees have arrived in the country since April 2023. The significant flow of Sudanese refugees is increasing the local demand for basic services, including health, water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH), cash, food and shelter.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .