Reference Date: 18-September-2026

Wheat crop production officially forecast well below average in 2026

Harvesting of the mostly irrigated 2026 wheat crop is underway and production is officially estimated at about 494 000 tonnes, about 20 percent above the previous five-year average. The bumper output reflects an expansion in plantings, encouraged by remunerative prices at planting time, and record yields, underpinned by conducive weather conditions and improved access to agricultural inputs through government support measures, including concessional loans and subsidized fuel and fertilizers.

In 2025, wheat crop production is officially estimated at 252 000 tonnes, about 45 percent below the previous five-year average. The low output reflects a contraction in sowings, as farmers shifted land to more profitable vegetables and cash crops as well as reduced yields due to unfavourable weather conditions.

Wheat import requirements in 2026/27 forecast at well below‑average levels

Cereal imports consist mostly of wheat and some small quantities of rice. Wheat import requirements in the 2026/27 marketing year (October/September) are forecast at 140 000 tonnes, well below the average, reflecting expectations of a bumper harvest in 2026. For the 2026 calendar year, imports of rice, which is not produced domestically, are forecast at 50 000 tonnes.

Prices of main staple foods at record levels in July 2026

Wheat flour and meat of beef and mutton are the main staple foods in the country. Domestic prices of beef and mutton meat increased sharply between November 2025 and June 2026, reaching record levels in various markets. Although prices stabilized or declined slightly in July 2026, they remained at record levels, standing 40 to 90 percent and 50 to 80 percent above their year-earlier levels, respectively. The elevated prices reflect seasonal trends that were amplified by the reduced domestic availability of livestock products in markets following the severe 2023/24 dzud event, which caused substantial livestock losses. Strong import demand for beef and mutton meat products from China (mainland), the country’s main export destination for livestock products, provided additional support to domestic prices.

Between March 2025 and January 2026, retail prices of wheat flour surged in most markets, reaching record levels as seasonal upward pressure was compounded by reduced market availability following the sharply reduced wheat harvest in 2025. During the first half of 2026, prices remained generally stable, supported by improved market supply resulting from large imports after the temporary suspension of import tariffs on wheat flour imported through the western border with the Russian Federation and China (mainland) between 24 December 2025 and 01 April 2026. However, prices remained elevated and edged up slightly in July 2026, reaching new record highs in line with trends in international markets.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .