Reference Date: 26-March-2025

Paddy production forecast at below-average in 2025/26

Harvesting of the 2025/26 main paddy crop started last January in Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah, followed by Sarawak, and is expected to be finalized by the end of April. Meanwhile, planting of the 2025/26 secondary paddy crop, mostly sown in Peninsular Malaysia, started in early March and is expected to be completed at the end of May. The 2025/26 main paddy production is preliminarily forecast at a below-average level. The reduced output is largely due to a contration in the area planted as heavy rains and floods in November and December 2024 hindered planting operations of the main paddy crop, especially in Peninsular Malaysia, the country’s key paddy-producing area. However, there is scope for a recovery in 2025/26’s secondary crop production, allowing a year-on-year increase in the 2025/26 aggregate production.

The 2024/25 aggregate paddy production is estimated at below-average 2.1 million tonnes, due to below-average plantings and yields on acount of dry weather conditions during the cropping season associated with the El Niño event.

Above-average cereal import requirements forecast in 2024/25

The country relies on cereal imports to meet its domestic requirements, as local production covers only about one‑fourth of the total national cereal consumption. For the 2024/25 marketing year (July/June), total cereal import requirements are forecast at 7.2 million tonnes, about 7 percent above the average. Maize imports, which account for the bulk of the imported cereal amounts, are projected at an average of 3.7 million tonnes. Imports of wheat are forecast at 1.7 million tonnes, about 9 percent above the average, driven by strong domestic demand for bread and bakery products, attributed to population growth and a year-on-year increase in tourist arrivals. Imports of rice in the 2025 calendar year are forecast to expand by 4  percent year-on-year to 1.8 million tonnes.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .