Reference Date: 13-January-2023

Slightly below‑average area planted with 2023 winter crops

Planting of the 2023 winter cereal crops, mostly wheat and barley, to be harvested from July, took place last October. The area sown is estimated at slightly below the average level, as abundant rainfall amounts in September and October 2022 in the key producing Volga and Central federal districts hampered planting operations. In addition, low domestic wheat prices due to large local availabilities induced farmers to reduce plantings.

As of early January 2023, winter crops were in dormancy phase, with snow cover protecting them from frosts in most crop lands, except in parts of North Caucasus Federal District. According to prevailing weather forecasts, there is a high likelihood of below‑average cumulative precipitation levels in these areas between January and March 2023, which may hinder crop establishment and development.

Planting of the 2023 spring crops, mostly wheat and maize, to be harvested from August, is expected to begin in April.

Record high cereal production obtained in 2022

Harvesting of the 2022 winter cereal crops finalized last August, while harvesting of the 2022 spring crops, mainly wheat and maize, was completed last November.

According to preliminary official data by the Federal Service for State Statistics (Rosstat), the 2022 output of wheat and barley is estimated at record high levels of about 102.7 million tonnes and 22.9 million tonnes, respectively, due to large plantings and above‑average rainfall amounts during the season, which boosted yields. The abundant precipitation levels, however, adversely affected the quality of wheat grains, with some reports mentioning that only 60 percent of the 2022 harvest is likely to meet milling requirements, compared with more than 80 percent in the previous year. Production of maize is estimated at 11.7 million tonnes, 14 percent below the five‑year average level as insufficient cumulative rainfall amounts in June and July 2022, followed by a heatwave in August, negatively affected yields in the key maize producing Southern and North Caucasus federal districts.

The aggregate 2022 cereal output (winter and spring crops) is set at 146.7 million tonnes, 21 percent above the five‑year average level.

Total cereal exports forecast above average in 2022/23

According to preliminary FAO forecasts, in the 2022/23 marketing year (July/June), aggregate cereal exports are anticipated at about 54 million tonnes, 18 percent above the five‑year average volume. Shipments of wheat, accounting on average for 80 percent of the total cereal exports, are forecast at 45 million tonnes, 24 percent above average amid a record high output obtained in 2022 and a strong pace of sales. Barley exports are expected at a near‑average level of 5 million tonnes, while shipments of maize are forecast at a slightly below‑average level of 3.5 million tonnes.

In mid‑November 2022, a 25.5 million tonnes quota on cereals exports to countries outside the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) was approved for the period between 15 February and 30 June 2023 ( FPMA Food Policy ). The measure aims to guarantee an adequate supply of basic food commodities in domestic markets and prevent price increases.

Export prices of wheat declined in second half of 2022 to year‑on‑year lower levels

Export prices of milling wheat showed a declining trend between June and December 2022, as expectation of a bumper 2022 national wheat harvest and large domestic availabilities provided a significant downward pressure on prices. In December 2022, prices were about 6 percent lower than a year before.

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