The International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) has suggested that the 2023 quotas for both North Atlantic mackerel and Atlanto-Scandian herring be cut. Supplies may therefore be somewhat tighter next year.

Prices are high and expected to stay that way for some time. However, North Atlantic mackerel may face some competition by jack mackerel from Peru.

Quotas and supplies

The International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) recently issued its advice for pelagic species in the Northeast Atlantic. For mackerel, ICES suggested a two percent reduction in the quota. However, if the catch level does not exceed 782 066 tonnes, this would mean that catches would be down by over 30 percent compared to actual landings in 2022.

ICES has also advised that catches of Norwegian spring-spawning herring (NSS) should be reduced for 2023. Catches should not exceed 511 171 tonnes. This would be a 15 percent reduction from 2022’s advice, but a 38 percent reduction compared to expected landings in 2022. However, in November there were reports of very good fishing in Norway, so supplies this coming winter are looking up.

Mackerel

Norwegian mackerel fishing in September was exceptionally good. For one week alone (19 – 25 September) no less than 63 600 tonnes were landed, setting a new all-time record. However, the onshore processing facilities were not capable of handling everything, in spite of running double shifts.

The jack mackerel (Trachurus murphyi) fishery off the southern coast of South America was seriously overfished at the beginning of this millennium. But a recovery plan carried out by. the South Pacific Regional Fisheries Management Organization (SPRFMO) has brought the biomass back up and led to quotas being increased. The total quota for jack mackerel in the region was set at 460 000 tonnes in 2015 but has been increased to 900 000 tonnes in 2022. This has allowed Chile to increase its landings of the species from 217 000 tonnes in 2015 to 581 000 tonnes in 2022.

The rising supplies of jack mackerel has led some importers in the European Union to turn to this species as an alternative to the North Atlantic mackerel. Jack mackerel commands a lower price than the North Atlantic mackerel and may therefore be a strong competitor. The species is also enjoying a growing popularity on the domestic market in Chile.

Mackerel prices have been going up significantly. So far this year, first-hand prices to the fishers in Norway are up by about 30 percent, from NOK 10.20 (USD 1.00) per kg in 2021 to NOK 13.20 (USD 1.30) per kg in 2022.

Norway’s total mackerel quota for 2022 amounts to 284 539 tonnes.

Norwegian exporters have been sending fresh mackerel by air to Japan lately, in addition to the frozen mackerel that is shipped since many years. By the end of September 2022, an estimated 146 000 tonnes of mackerel had been exported from Norway to
Japan.

The largest markets were China (18.5 percent of the total, by volume), the Republic of Korea (16.4 percent of the total) and the European Union (11.7 percent of the total).

China’s imports of whole frozen mackerel dropped significantly during the first half of 2021 compared to 2020 but recovered slightly during the first half of 2022. Imports went from 36 660 tonnes in 2021 to 39 239 tonnes during the same period in 2022. The largest supplier, Norway, registered a 22.9 percent decline in volume, while both Ireland and the Faroe Islands registered important increases.

Korean imports of whole frozen mackerel declined slightly during the first eight months of 2022 compared to last year. A total of 37 323 tonnes had been imported. Of this amount, 86.2 percent (32 171 tonnes) came from Norway, which. also commanded the highest import prices, with an average of USD 2.48 per kg, while frozen mackerel from the Russian Federation was paid only USD 0.89 per kg.

Herring

Korean imports of frozen Pacific herring increased dramatically during the first half of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021. Imports stood at 6 647 tonnes during the first six months of 2021, while during the same period of 2022, they had risen to 20 558 tonnes. The Russian Federation accounted for as much as 97.5 percent of these imports.

Russian exports of frozen herring increased by an impressive 65.8 percent, from 50 154 tonnes in the first half of 2021 to 83 265 tonnes in the first half of 2022. After a massive decline in Russian shipments of frozen herring to China in 2021 (from 59 058 tonnes during the first half of 2020 to just 1 218 tonnes during the same period in 2021), Russian exports to China recovered in 2022. China accounted for 60 percent of Russian frozen herring exports during the first half of 2022. The second largest market, the Republic of Korea, also recovered from the slump in 2021.

During the first six months of the year, Norwegian herring exports amounted to 142 155 tonnes with an FOB value of NOK 1.8 billion (USD 171 million). This was a decrease of 15 percent in terms of volume, and a decrease of only 3.6 percent in terms of value. The average export price went up from NOK 11.11 (USD 1.06) per kg in 2021 to NOK 12.63 (USD 1.20) per kg in 2022.
German imports of prepared/preserved herring continue to slide modestly, and during the first half of the year amounted to 21 673 tonnes, compared to 22 691 tonnes during the first half of 2021.

German consumption of herring increased sharply during the COVID-19 pandemic but fell back when the pandemic restrictions were lifted. However, there are now signs that herring consumption may be increasing again, as a result of dramatically rising prices on energy and food, which makes the consumers look for lower priced fish species.

Capelin

Iceland’s Marine and Freshwater Research Institute (MFRI) has recommended a sizeable cut in the capelin fishing in Icelandic waters for the 2022/2023 season. For the 2021/2022 season, MFRI originally suggested a total allowable catch (TAC) of 400 000 tonnes, but later revised this upwards to 904 000 tonnes, amount which at a later stage was reduced to 869 600tonnes.
For the 2022/2023 season, MFRI suggested a TAC of 400 000 tonnes. But again, they revised this advice in the course of the year down to just 218 400 tonnes. This would represent a 75 percent reduction from the final TAC of 2021/2022.

Russian and Norwegian scientists have agreed on a slight reduction in the Barents Sea capelin quota for 2023. The capelin stock has grown very little over the past 12 months, and they consequently suggested that the TAC be reduced from 70 000 tonnes in 2022 to 62 000 tonnes in 2023. This quota is divided between the Russian Federation and Norway, with 40 percent for the Russian Federation (24 800 tonnes) and Norway 60 percent (37 200 tonnes). The Russian Federation and Norway continue their dialogue on fishing quotas despite the conflict in Ukraine.

Anchovy and Sardines

In the Russian Far East, catches of Iwashi sardines are about 10 percent above landings a year ago. During the first seven months of 2022, Russian landings of Iwashi sardines amounted to 45 600 tonnes.

The first anchoveta season in Peru ended at the end of July, with a total of 2.34 million tonnes landed. This represented 84 percent of the quota (2.79 million tonnes).

Outlook

Supplies of mackerel may be tighter next year if the recommendations by ICES are followed. However, increasing supplies of jack mackerel from Chile may capture market shares in some markets, primarily Europe.

Herring quotas in the North Atlantic are also expected to be lower, so supplies may be tighter for this product.

However, demand for inexpensive fish like small pelagic fish is expected to grow as the economic situation is difficult in many European countries, resulting in dramatically higher energy and food prices. Thus, higher mackerel prices are expected, while herring prices are expected to hold their own.

There will be considerably less capelin on the market in the coming year, as both Iceland, Norway and the Russian Federation have lowered their quotas. As most of this species goes to fishmeal production, the impact on the food market will be limited.