Overview:

Dry conditions are expected across all regions in November. In the Western Region, above-normal rainfall is likely in December in Mauritania, Western Sahara, Morocco, and Algeria, which may favour breeding and expand the ongoing outbreak. Wetter-than-average conditions could continue into spring in Algeria, Libya, and northern Sahel areas, supporting locust breeding. In the Central Region, as negative IOD conditions weaken, rains may start around the Red Sea in December in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Sudan. Above-normal rainfall may persist through April, supporting breeding along Red Sea coasts in winter and in interior areas during spring. In the Eastern Region, dry conditions prevail until December. From January to April, near- to above-normal rainfall may allow small-scale spring breeding in Iran and Pakistan.

Key points:

• Overview: The Desert Locust outbreak intensified in Mauritania and spread into Western Sahara.
• Current situation: Breeding adult groups, hopper groups and bands increased in Mauritania and breeding groups spread into Western Sahara. Locusts were also found in Algeria, Chad, Sudan and Yemen and a few in Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
• Control operations: Increased in October (9 890 ha treated) compared to September (4 543 ha).
• Forecast: Breeding will continue in Mauritania and Western Sahara with new adult groups and small swarms. Groups may appear in Mali, Niger, Chad, Morocco, Algeria and Sudan.  

الملخص:  تفشي الجراد في موريتانيا
في المنطقة الغربية خلال شهر أكتوبر، تفاقم تفشي الجراد في موريتانيا وانتشر إلى الصحراء الغربية، حيث هاجرت مجموعات الحشرات الكاملة وتكاثرت عبر امتداد 800 كم من الجنوب إلى الشمال. ظهرت مجموعات جديدة من الحوريات وقليل من بقع الحوريات من الجيل الثاني من التكاثر في غرب موريتانيا. تم ملاحظة حشرات كاملة وحوريات انعزالية ومشتتة في عدة مواقع في تشاد. ووجدت الحشرات الكاملة الانعزالية في الجزائر، حيث تم الإبلاغ عن بعض مجموعات الحشرات كاملة أيضا في نهاية الشهر.
في المنطقة الوسطى، وُجدت الحشرات الكاملة الانعزالية والمشتتة في السودان، كما لُوحظ وجود عدد قليل منها في مصر والسعودية واليمن، حيث وجد أيضا بعض حوريات الجراد.
أما في المنطقة الشرقية، فلم يتم العثور على أي جراد، ولا يُتوقع حدوث تطورات هامة.

Key points:

• Overview: The localized outbreak in Mauritania has spread throughout western Mauritania and into Western Sahara.
• Current situation: Groups of adults and scattered adults are found breeding over 800 km from southwestern Mauritania to Oum Dreyga in Western Sahara. Hopper groups and bands of the second generation appeared in Mauritania. Adult groups were also found in Algeria and adults in several sites in Chad. 
• Control and surveys:  Surveys are essential in all countries. Control operations need to be intensified in Mauritania and will likely be required in Algeria, Mali, Morocco, and Niger.
• Forecasts: The second-generation breeding will continue in Mauritania and Western Sahara, generating bands and later small swarms that will migrate northward. Adult groups may appear in other Sahelian countries as well as Algeria, and later Morocco.

 

Overview:

Dry conditions are expected across all regions through November, with localized rainfall possibly occurring in Mauritania, Western Sahara, Algeria, Oman, Yemen, and along the Indo-Pakistan border. December may bring wetter-than-average conditions to the Western and Central Regions, especially in Mauritania, Western Sahara, and along the Red Sea coasts, followed by near-normal conditions in January and February. Hence, locust breeding is expected to potentially increase in December, particularly in Mauritania and the Red Sea coasts. Spring could be wetter than normal in Algeria, Libya, Sudan, Egypt, Iran, and Pakistan, where spring breeding could be favoured. The negative Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to persist into November, causing dryness, while La Niña may bring wetter conditions to northern Africa and the Arabian Peninsula in winter and spring—though this trend is weak and needs to be confirmed.

في شهر سبتمبر، استمر تفشي الجراد في موريتانيا، حيث تحولت مجموعات من الحوريات إلى مجموعات من الحشرات الكاملة غير الناضجة جنسيا عبر الجزء الاوسط من البلاد، وبنهاية الشهر، بدأت مجموعات جديدة من الحشرات الكاملة الناضجة جنسيا في جيل ثانٍ من التكاثر. وتمت ملاحظة حشرات كاملة وحوريات مشتتة في شرق النيجر، وبعض الحشرات الكاملة الانعزالية في عدة مواقع في تشاد. وتم العثور على عدد قليل من الحشرات الكاملة الانعزالية في الجزائر. وتظل الظروف البيئية ملائمة للتكاثر في العديد من المناطق، على الرغم من أنه من المتوقع أن يكون شهر أكتوبر ونوفمبر جافين في معظم مناطق منطقة الساحل باستثناء الجزء الغربي منه.

في المنطقة الوسطى، وُجد عدد قليل من الحشرات الكاملة الانعزالية والمشتتة في السودان. وفي المنطقة الشرقية، انخفضت معدلات أمطار الرياح الموسمية على إمتداد الحدود الهندية الباكستانية، ولم يتم رصد أي جراد.

Key points

• Overview: A desert locust outbreak continued to develop in Mauritania.
• Current situation: Hopper and adult groups increased in Mauritania. Adults and hoppers in Chad, Niger, Senegal and adults in Sudan. No locusts observed along the India-Pakistan border.
• Control operations: Increased in September (4 379 ha) compared to August (601 ha).
• Forecast: Summer breeding will continue in Mauritania, and conclude in Mali, Niger, Chad, and Sudan. Groups will continue to appear in Mauritania and maybe in Mali, Niger, Chad, southern Algeria and Sudan. No significant development expected along the India-Pakistan border.  

Overview:

Above-normal rainfall is expected in late September across the northern Sahel, Sudan, the southern Arabian Peninsula, and along the Indo-Pakistan border, and may persist into early October in West Africa and the Indo-Pakistan border area. A drying trend is anticipated across most regions in October and November due to a negative Indian Ocean Dipole. In December, rainfall may return to localized areas in all three regions, particularly along the Red Sea coasts of Egypt, Sudan, and Saudi Arabia, and could persist through February. Above-normal rainfall is also forecast for spring breeding areas in the Central and Eastern Regions. These rainfall patterns will support locust breeding in the northern Sahel and Sudan through September and early October. Breeding should decrease in November but may intensify again from December to March, especially along the Red Sea coasts.

Key points

• Overview: A small Desert Locust outbreak developed in Mauritania.
• Current situation: Hopper and adult groups increased in Mauritania. Isolated adults in Chad. In the Central Region, scattered adults in Sudan and isolated adults in Egypt. No locusts observed along the India-Pakistan border.
• Control operations: Decreased in August (573 ha) compared to July (6 421 ha).
• Forecast: Summer breeding will continue in Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Chad, southern Algeria, Sudan, and may start in Eritrea, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Yemen. Groups may continue to appear in the western Sahel. Very small-scale breeding may occur along the India-Pakistan border.

نظرة عامة: ظهرت بؤرة صغيرة من الجراد الصحراوي في موريتانيا.
الوضع الحالي: ازداد عدد حشرات الجراد الصغيرة والبالغة في موريتانيا. وشوهد جراد بالغ متفرق في تشاد. وفي المنطقة الوسطى، شوهد جراد بالغ متفرق في السودان وجراد بالغ متفرق في مصر. ولم يُرصد أي جراد على طول الحدود الهندية الباكستانية.
عمليات المكافحة: انخفضت في أغسطس (573 هكتارًا) مقارنةً بيوليو (6421 هكتارًا).
التوقعات: سيستمر تكاثر الجراد خلال فصل الصيف في موريتانيا ومالي والنيجر وتشاد وجنوب الجزائر والسودان، وقد يبدأ في إريتريا والمملكة العربية السعودية وعُمان واليمن. وقد تستمر مجموعات الجراد في الظهور في منطقة الساحل الغربي. وقد يحدث تكاثر محدود للغاية على طول الحدود الهندية الباكستانية.

Overview:

Persistant above-normal rainfall is expected through late August and September across the northern Sahel from Niger to Sudan, the southern Arabian peninsula, and the Indo-Pakistan border. A drying trend is still anticipated in October and November, except along the Indo-Pakistan border, which may continue to receive good rains until monsoon withdraws in October. However, some above-average rains may return in December in the Western and Central regions. These rainfall patterns will continue to support favorable locust breeding conditions through the summer and early autumn, particularly in the Sahel and Sudan. The dry conditions expected to develop in October and November are associated with a negative Indian Ocean Dipole phase. However, this negative IOD may weaken by November.

نظرة عامة:
انخفضت تفشيات الجراد الصحراوي بشكل كبير في المناطق الشمالية من الإقليم الغربي.

الوضع الحالي:
انخفضت مجموعات الحوريات والحشرات الكاملة في الجزائر واختفت من تونس والمغرب. توجد مجموعات من الحشرات الكاملة وحشرات كاملة متفرقة في موريتانيا. حشرات كاملة منعزلة في تشاد والنيجر. في الإقليم الأوسط، بقيت بعض المجموعات في مصر. حشرات كاملة متفرقة في السودان. توجد بعض الحشرات الكاملة على طول الحدود الهندية-الباكستانية.

عمليات المكافحة:
انخفضت في يوليو (6,421 هكتار) مقارنة بشهر يونيو (23,014 هكتار).

التوقعات:
لا يزال من الممكن ظهور مجموعات من الحشرات الكاملة في منطقة الساحل خلال أغسطس. سيستمر التكاثر الصيفي في موريتانيا ومالي والنيجر وتشاد والسودان، وقد يبدأ في جنوب الجزائر وإريتريا. من المحتمل حدوث تكاثر محدود جداً على طول الحدود الهندية-الباكستانية.

Overview:

The multi-model precipitation outlook continues to indicate a generally wet summer across the northern Sahel from Mali to Sudan, across the southern Arabian Peninsula, and the Indo-Pakistan border, with above-normal rainfall expected during August and September. A drying trend is anticipated in October and November, with dry conditions prevailing across most areas. However, some rains and residual moisture may persist in December in western Algeria, Morocco, Mauritania, and Niger. These rainfall patterns are likely to support favorable locust breeding conditions through the summer and early autumn, particularly in the Sahel and Sudan. Dry conditions are expected to develop and expand in East Africa during Northern Hemisphere autumn in association with the negative IOD phase.

ي يونيو، انخفض نشاط الجراد الصحراوي في المناطق الشمالية من المنطقة الغربية لكنه ظل ملحوظا في ليبيا والجزائر. تم الإبلاغ عن أسراب وبقع الحوريات في شمال غرب ليبيا، بينما استمرت مجموعات الحشرات الكاملة وظهرت مجموعات حوريات الجراد في وسط وشمال الصحراء الكبرى الجزائرية. بدأت بعض علامات التكاثر تظهر من جنوب الجزائر. كما قد انخفضت أعداد الجراد في تونس والمغرب، على الرغم من إستقرار بعض المجموعات. كانت هناك الحشرات الكاملة المشتتة في موريتانيا ومجموعات ناضجة جنسيا في النيجر.

Key points

• Overview: Desert Locust outbreaks declined in the northern areas of the Western Region but will shift south.
• Current situation: Hopper bands and immature swarms reported in Libya, while groups persisted in Algeria and decreased in Tunisia and Morocco. Adult groups were still present in Niger. Scattered adults in Mauritania. In the Central Region, a few groups remained in Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
• Control operations: Decreased in June (22 514 ha) compared to May (45 403 ha).
• Forecast: Adult groups and small swarms will move from North Africa southwest toward the Sahel in July. Summer breeding will start in southern Algeria, southwestern Libya, Chad, Niger, Mali, Mauritania and possibly Sudan. Very small-scale breeding may occur along the India-Pakistan border.

Overview:

Seasonal and subseasonal models continue to indicate a generally wet summer across the Sahel, southern Sahara, northeastern Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and the Indo-Pakistan border, with above-normal rainfall expected from July through September. A gradual drying trend is anticipated from October onward, with dry conditions returning across most areas by November. However, some residual moisture may persist into December in western Algeria, Morocco, Mauritania, and parts of Yemen and Oman. These rainfall patterns are likely to support favorable locust breeding conditions through the summer and early autumn, particularly in the Sahel and Sudan. The forecasted summer rains are being driven by persistent La Niña-like conditions, while the expected drying in autumn aligns with projections for the development of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole. 

في مايو، استمرّ تفشي الجراد الصحراوي في المنطقة الغربية، مع زيادة في مجموعات وبقع الحوريات، وظهور مجموعات من الحشرات الكاملة غير الناضجة جنسياً وبعض الأسراب الصغيرة بنهاية الشهر في الجزائر وتونس وليبيا. كما رُصدت مجموعات إضافية من الحشرات الكاملة في تشاد والنيجر والمغرب، حيث رُصدت أيضا مجموعات من الحوريات. في المنطقة الوسطى، انخفض التكاثر الربيعي، مع بقاء بعض مجموعات وبقع الحوريات في السعودية وبعضها في المناطق المروية بمصر. ظهرت مجموعات من الحشرات الكاملة غير الناضجة جنسيا وبعض الأسراب الصغيرة في مصر، بينما عُثر على بعض مجموعات الحشرات الكاملة على امتداد شمال وادي النيل في السودان.

Overview:

Contrary to earlier forecasts, both seasonal and subseasonal models now predict a relatively dry June in the Sahel, while pre-monsoon rains may still occur in India and Pakistan. However, a generally wet summer is expected across all three regions, with above-normal rainfall likely from July to September in the Sahel and southern Sahara of northern Africa, along the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden coasts, the Horn of Africa, the interior of the Arabian Peninsula, and the Indo-Pakistan border. Dry conditions are expected to return with the onset of winter. The anticipated above-normal rainfall this summer is associated with weak La Niña-like conditions.

Key points

• Overview: Desert Locust outbreaks persisted in southern Sahara and Northwestern Africa
• Current situation: Groups, breeding and bands increased in Algeria, Libya, and Tunisia; adult groups in Niger, breeding and groups in Morocco, adults and a small band in Chad. Adult groups and swarms declined along the Nile Valley of Sudan and Egypt; few bands and adult groups in Saudi Arabia.
• Control operations: Doubled during April (34 436 ha) compared to March (17 962 ha)
• Forecast: Spring breeding will continue in Algeria, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia with new hopper groups and bands. Adult groups and small swarms may migrate to Chad, Niger and Mali. Small-scale spring breeding may persist along the Nile Valley in Sudan and Egypt, and in the interior of Saudi Arabia. Control operations will be required.

Key points

• Overview: The outbreaks that spread to northwestern Africa in February and March continued in April.
• Current situation: Adult groups and bands increase in Sahara, while few groups and bands along the Nile Valley.
• Control and surveys: Surveys and controls are necessary in all potential spring breeding areas of the Western Region to avoid further development; maintain surveys in Central Region.
• Forecasts: Spring breeding is expected to continue in Algeria, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia and will form adult groups and small swarms from May to June that could then move south to the Sahel.