Overview:

Climate models expect a rapid transition to El Niño conditions in the Pacific in the coming month, combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole. These signals are likely to generate wetter‑than‑normal conditions across all regions in May, followed by dry conditions in the southern parts of the Central and Eastern Regions. The summer breeding areas of the Western Region may receive above‑normal rainfall in northern areas, particularly toward the end of summer, while drier‑than‑normal conditions are forecast in the Central and Eastern Regions. Small‑scale spring breeding is still possible in Tunisia, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman, Egypt, Sudan, Somalia, Iran, and Pakistan. Gregarious spring breeding is likely to continue in Morocco and may extend into Algeria. Summer breeding in the Sahel may occur, with an increasing risk of outbreaks toward the end of summer.

في شهر مارس، وتحديدا في المنطقة الغربية، استمر التفشي في الصحراء الغربية والمغرب مع امتداده نحو الشمال. ازداد التكاثر في المغرب وامتد إلى مناطق شمال أغادير وبالقرب من الراشيدية. رُصدت مجموعات وبقع حوريات خلال النصف الثاني من الشهر بالقرب من كلميم. في الصحراء الغربية، تراجعت مجموعات الحشرات الكاملة غير الناضجة جنسيا والناضجة جنسيا مع هجرتها شمالا، وإن كان بعضها قد تكاثر محليا. وصلت بعض مجموعات الحشرات الكاملة غير الناضجة جنسيا إلى الجزائر خلال الأسبوع الأول من الشهر. في جزر الكناري (إسبانيا)، رُصدت حشرات كاملة إنعزالية فقط.
في المنطقتين الوسطى والشرقية لم يتم الابلاغ عن أي جراد .

Key points:

• Overview: The Desert Locust outbreak continued in Western Sahara and Morocco while spreading northwards.
• Current situation: Adult groups moved northward in Western Sahara and Morocco, where breeding increased; hopper groups and bands appeared in Morocco; a few adult groups reached Algeria. Some locusts were also detected in the Canary Islands. No locusts were reported elsewhere.
• Control operations: Decreased in March (25 137 ha treated) compared to February (34 564 ha).
• Forecast: Adult groups and small swarms may continue moving northward into Morocco and Algeria, where increasing breeding may produce new hopper groups and small bands.

Overview:

Climate models continue to indicate a rapid transition to El Niño in the Pacific by late spring, combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole. These signals are expected to generate wetter-than-normal conditions across all Regions during the spring. In summer, wet conditions may persist in the Western Region, while  drier-than-normal conditions are forecast for Eastern African, the Arabian Peninsula and the Eastern Region. Spring breeding is expected to remain small‑scale in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman, Egypt, Sudan, Iran, and Pakistan. In the Western Region, gregarious spring breeding is likely in Morocco and may extend into Algeria, and potentially later into Tunisia and Libya. Summer breeding in the Sahel could begin earlier than usual, increasing the risk of outbreaks toward the end of the summer if predicted rainfall patterns materialize.

Key points:

• Overview: The serious Desert Locust outbreak continued in Western Sahara and southern Morocco.
• Current situation: Adult groups increased and moved northward in Western Sahara and Morocco where breeding resumed; some adult groups reached the Canary Islands and Algeria. Some locusts were also detected in Mauritania, Egypt, Sudan and Eritrea. 
• Control and operations:  Decreased in February (34 564 ha treated) compared to January (47 358 ha).
• Forecasts: Adult groups and small swarms may continue moving northward into Morocco and Algeria where breeding may produce new hopper groups and small bands.

 

في شهر فبراير ، وتحديدا في المنطقة الغربية، استمر التفشي الخطير في الصحراء الغربية وجنوب المغرب. حيث ازداد عدد مجموعات الحشرات الكاملة غير الناضجة جنسيا في الصحراء الغربية، حيث نضج بعضها جنسيا وتكاثر وكانت بقع الحوريات لا تزال موجودة. كما ازداد عدد مجموعات الحشرات الكاملة الناضجة جنسيا وتحركت شمالا في المغرب، حيث تكاثرت في مواقع عديدة، ووصل بعضها إلى شمال أغادير. وصلت بعض مجموعات الحشرات الكاملة إلى جزر الكناري وغرب الجزائر. كما لوحظت الحشرات الكاملة المشتتة في وسط الجزائر. وقد تحركت مجموعات الحشرات الكاملة والأسراب الصغيرة خارج موريتانيا.
في المنطقة الوسطى، تم الابلاغ عن الحشرات الكاملة الإنعزالية والمشتتة في السودان، بينما وُجدت الحشرات الكاملة الإنعزالية فقط في مصر وإريتريا.  

Overview:

Climate models continue to indicate a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and a rapid transition to El Niño in the Pacific over the coming months. These conditions are expected to increase rainfall across the Central and Eastern Regions during the spring. Tropical cyclones may develop over the Arabian Peninsula and will need to be closely monitored. Spring breeding in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman, Egypt, Sudan, Somalia, Iran, and Pakistan is likely to begin on a small scale in March but may continue throughout the season. In the Western Region, models now forecast dry to normal conditions this spring across northwestern Africa. However, since gregarious breeding has resumed in Morocco, localized breedings are expected to persist through the end of winter and into spring, potentially extending into Algeria, Libya, and Tunisia.

إنقسام تفشي الجراد في المنطقة الغربية إلى قسمين
في شهر يناير، وتحديدا في المنطقة الغربية، انقسم تفشي الجراد الخطير في موريتانيا والصحراء الغربية إلى منطقتين. حيث استمر ​تواجد مجموعات الحشرات الكاملة غير الناضجة جنسيا وأسراب صغيرة في منطقة الإصابة الجنوبية الممتدة شمال السنغال وجنوب موريتانيا، والتي انخفض عددها خلال العقد الماضي. بينما امتدت منطقة الإصابة الأخرى من شمال موريتانيا إلى جنوب المغرب حيث تناقص عدد بقع ومجموعات الحوريات، بينما زادت مجموعات الحشرات الكاملة غير الناضجة جنسيا واستأنفت بعض مجموعات الحشرات الكاملة الناضجة جنسيا التكاثر خلال العقد الماضي. 

Key points:

• Overview: The serious outbreak in Mauritania and Western Sahara in Mauritania and Western Sahara split into two distinct areas in January.
• Current situation: At the beginning of January, winds pushed groups and small swarms away from the Mauritanian coast, leading to the formation of two hotspots. In the south, between southern Mauritania and northern Senegal, several small immature swarms were observed. In the north, from northern Mauritania to southern Morocco, late‑instar hopper groups coexisted with immature, maturing, and locally mature adult groups. Adults were also reported in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, and Yemen.
• Control and surveys:  Survey and control operations must remain intensive from northern Senegal to southern Morocco, with additional surveys needed in Algeria. Monitoring should continue in the other countries.
• Forecasts: Breeding may resume in Mauritania and extend into Senegal. Mature adult groups could also breed as far north as southern Morocco, leading to new hopper bands in February. Small‑scale breeding may also occur in the Central Region.

Overview:

The establishment of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole circulation over the next two months, followed by the onset of El Niño in the Pacific in April, is becoming increasingly likely. Accordingly, seasonal models once again indicate a tendency toward wet conditions from Northwest Africa to the Middle East in February and continuing through May. Subseasonal models also forecast several rainy episodes over the next three weeks across various spring breeding areas. In the western region, a third generation of breeding could still occur north of the ongoing outbreak. The wet conditions expected in February could favour significant spring breeding in Morocco and Algeria, and possibly in Libya and Tunisia. In the central and eastern regions, above‑normal rainfall from February to June could support small‑scale spring breeding in Egypt, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Somalia, Oman, Iran, and Pakistan.

Key points:

• Overview: The Desert Locust outbreak remained serious in Mauritania and Western Sahara.
• Current situation: Numerous adult groups and small swarms were present in Mauritania, while hopper groups and bands were fledging into adult groups and small swarms in Western Sahara. Adult groups spread from northern Senegal to near Tan-Tan in Morocco. Some locusts were also found in Algeria, Niger, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Sudan and Yemen.
• Control operations: Increased in December (81 654 ha treated) compared to November (33 273 ha).
• Forecast: Breeding may resume in Mauritania and Western Sahara. Small swarms may migrate northward from Mauritania to Morocco. Some may reach Algeria and Senegal. Groups may appear in Sudan.

في شهر ديسمبر، وتحديدا في المنطقة الغربية ظل تفشي الجراد خطيرا في موريتانيا والصحراء الغربية. حيث زادت مجموعات الحشرات الكاملة غير الناضجة جنسيا والأسراب الصغيرة على امتداد الساحل الأطلسي لموريتانيا، ووصل بعضها إلى السنغال. في المغرب، تم العثور على مجموعات من الحشرات الكاملة الناضجة جنسيا بالقرب من طانطان. كانت بقع الحوريات تتحول إلى مجموعات من الحشرات الكاملة وأسراب صغيرة في الصحراء الغربية. ومع ذلك، أدت درجات الحرارة المنخفضة إلى إبطاء النضج الجنسي، مما سمح بجهود مكافحة مكثفة قبل أن بدأ الجيل الثالث. كما قد تم الإبلاغ عن عدد قليل من الحشرات الكاملة الإنعزالية في الجزائر والنيجر. 

Key points:

• Overview: The serious Desert Locust outbreak in Mauritania and Western Sahara split into two areas.
• Current situation: Adult groups and small swarms were present in southern Mauritania and northern Senegal, adult groups increased while hopper groups and bands were fledging in Western Sahara, some adult groups reached Tan-Tan in Morocco. Some locusts were also found in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Sudan and Yemen.
• Control operations: Decreased in January (45 943 ha treated) compared to December (82 389 ha).
• Forecast: Small swarms and adult groups may continue to migrate northward from Mauritania to Morocco. Some may reach Algeria. Breeding may resume in Western Sahara.
  

Overview: 

Contrary to previous forecasts, seasonal models now indicate a trend toward drier conditions from northwestern Africa to the Middle East in January and February. However, subseasonal models predict rain events over the next four weeks across the three regions, and wet conditions could return in March and April in spring breeding areas. Depending on the development of El Niño conditions during spring, these wet conditions may persist, although confidence remains low at this stage. In the Western Region, as temperatures rise in January, a third generation of breeding could expand the ongoing outbreak. Wetter-than-average conditions may continue into spring breeding in northwestern Africa. In the Central and Eastern Regions, above-normal rainfall in March and April could support small-scale spring breeding in Egypt, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Somalia, Oman, Iran, and Pakistan.

نظرة عامة:‏
استمر التف  يش الخط رب للجراد الصحراوي يف موريتانيا والصحراء الغربية خلال شهر ديسم ب. ولوحظت 
مجموعات عديدة من الح شات الكاملة غ رب الناضجة وأسراب صغ ربة تتحرك على طول الساحل الأطل  يش 
لموريتانيا. كما ُسجل وجود مجموعات من الحوريات وبعض الح شات حديثة الفقس...

Key points:

• Overview: The serious outbreak in Mauritania and Western Sahara continued in December.
• Current situation: Immature adult groups and swarms as well as hopper groups were found from southwestern Mauritania to southern Morocco. Adults were also reported in Algeria, Senegal, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, and Yemen.
• Control and surveys:  Surveys and control operations need to be further intensified from southwestern Mauritania to southern Morocco and surveys are also required in Algeria, Senegal, Mali and Niger.
• Forecasts: A third generation of breeding is expected from southwestern Mauritania to southern Morocco, likely resulting in new bands in late January. Small-scale breeding may also start in January along the Red Sea.

 

الملخص:  تفشي الجراد الخطير مستمر في الغرب

في شهر نوفمبر، وتحديدا في المنطقة الغربية، استمر تفشي الجراد بشكل خطير في موريتانيا والصحراء الغربية، حيث كانت هناك مجموعات وبقع كثيرة من الحوريات، وظهرت مجموعات جديدة من الحشرات الكاملة غير ناضجة جنسيا أو أسراب صغيرة، وصل بعضها إلى السنغال. ...

نظرة عامة: لا يزال تفشي الجراد الصحراوي خطيرًا في موريتانيا والصحراء الغربية.
الوضع الحالي: تواجدت مجموعات وأسراب عديدة من الجراد في الصحراء الغربية وموريتانيا، حيث ظهرت مجموعات من الجراد البالغ غير الناضج وأسراب صغيرة. انتشرت مجموعات الجراد البالغ من شمال السنغال إلى قرب تيزنيت في المغرب. كما عُثر على بعض الجراد في الجزائر وتشاد والنيجر ومصر والمملكة العربية السعودية والصومال واليمن.
عمليات المكافحة: ازدادت في نوفمبر (30860 هكتارًا معالجة) مقارنةً بأكتوبر (10180 هكتارًا).
التوقعات: سيبدأ التكاثر من جديد في موريتانيا، وستظهر مجموعات من الجراد البالغ في الصحراء الغربية. قد تهاجر أسراب صغيرة شمالًا من موريتانيا إلى المغرب. وقد تظهر مجموعات في مالي والنيجر والجزائر والسودان.

Key points:

• Overview: The Desert Locust outbreak remained serious in Mauritania and Western Sahara.
• Current situation: Numerous hopper groups and bands were present in Western Sahara and Mauritania where immature adult groups and small swarms appeared. Adult groups spread from northern Senegal to near Tiznit in Morocco. Some locusts were also found in Algeria, Chad, Niger, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Somalia and Yemen. 
• Control operations: Increased in November (30 860 ha treated) compared to October (10 180 ha).
• Forecast: Breeding will restart in Mauritania and adult groups emerge in Western Sahara. Small swarms may migrate northward from Mauritania to Morocco. Groups may appear in Mali, Niger, Algeria and Sudan. 

Key points:

• Overview: The outbreak in Mauritania and Western Sahara persisted in November.
• Current situation: Hopper groups and bands as well as adult groups were found from southwestern Mauritania to southern Morocco. Adult groups were also found in Algeria and adults in Niger, Chad, Saudi Arabia and Yemen.
• Control and surveys:  Surveys and control operations must continue in Algeria, and from southwestern Mauritania to southern Morocco.
• Forecasts: The northward migration is expected to continue and a third-generation of breeding may start in December from southwestern Mauritania to southern Morocco, generating new bands in January. Small-scale breeding may start in December along the Red Sea.