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Archivo: 1999 Session - Appendix 3

1999 Session of the Research Group of the Standing Technical Committee of EuFMD


Qualitative risk analysis of the introduction of FMD from Transcaucasia to Russia and Europe

Franâois Moutou, AFSSA Alfort, BP 67, 94703 Maisons-Alfort cedex.
Barbara Dufour, AFSSA DG, BP 67, 94703 Maisons-Alfort cedex.


To evaluate the risk of introduction of Foot-and-Mouth Disease from Transcaucasian countries (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia) to Russia and Europe in 1999, a qualitative risk analysis is performed, based on a three week OIE/FAO/CE mission in these countries, during March 1999. The actual data make a quantitative risk analysis not yet feasible, even if a lot of information was collected thanks to the strong involvement of the local veterinary services. The method followed was developped by C. Zepeda in 1997, and can be seen as a first approach, before a quantitative risk analysis can be performed.

To realize this evaluation, introduction risk and exposition risk were appreciated through the following parameters : infectious agent prevalence, importance of trade, survival capacities of the virus, contamination potentialities and transmission probabilities. By combining the different appreciations of these parameters, the possibility of occurence of the hazard is considered to be low. Economical consequences, taking into account the local situations, are seen as negligible. At the end, risk is considered as "low".