Developing policies for inclusive rural transformation processes requires a deeper understanding of how climate change impacts vulnerable rural populations, such as women, youth, and those in poverty. However, there's insufficient multi-country evidence on how weather shocks and climate change influence rural transformation factors and adaptive behaviours across different rural segments and agro-ecological contexts.  In a recent webinar hosted by the Technical Network on Poverty Analysis (THINK-PA), FAO's Senior Economist Nicholas Sitko presented a report titled "The unjust climate” that sheds light on the unequal effects of climate change within and across countries.

The multi-country microeconomic study delves into the disparities in climate vulnerabilities across rural areas, considering key social dimensions such as wealth, gender, and age. The extensive research draws from a dataset encompassing socioeconomic information from over 100 000 rural households, representing over 950 million people across 24 low- and middle-income countries. Coupled with 70 years of georeferenced climate data on daily precipitation and temperatures, researchers explore how different climate stressors affect people's incomes, labour allocations, and adaptive actions.

The paper primarily focuses on household-level analysis, although certain countries provided more detailed survey data, enabling deeper examination at the individual and farm plot levels. To understand the diverse sensitivities of rural households to climate and weather events, the report employs income-related variables at the household level, labour variables at the individual level, and agricultural productivity measures at the plot level.

Utilizing reanalysis-based climate data, which blend model forecasts with satellite and weather gauge observations, the study assesses climate stressors such as heavy precipitation, heat, and drought. Empirical analysis evaluates the impact of these stressors on sensitivity and adaptation outcomes across different socioeconomic groups, employing linear regression models and incorporating various covariates.

The research offers insights into the unique challenges faced by different demographic groups, paving the way for context-specific and globally informed strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change on rural livelihoods. It marks a significant step forward in understanding and addressing the complex intersection of climate change and social inequality in rural communities worldwide.