Agricultural Development Economics
 

Publication

Title
Household vulnerability to food insecurity in the face of climate change in Paraguay
Subtitle
FAO Agricultural Development Economics Working Paper 19-04
Author
Paul A. Ervin and Lyliana Gayoso de Ervin
Publication date
20/02/2019
Abstract
This working paper analyses the effect climate change is expected to have on agricultural productivity, caloric consumption, and vulnerability to food insecurity of household agricultural producers in Paraguay. Our results suggest that increasing temperatures and reduced precipitation will reduce agricultural productivity and caloric consumption, and increase vulnerability to food insecurity. Specifically, a 1 percent increase in average maximum temperatures is associated with a 5 percent reduction in agricultural productivity. A 5 percent reduction in agricultural productivity translates into nearly a 1 percent reduction in caloric consumption. Vulnerability to food insecurity in Paraguay is expected to increase by 28 percentage points by 2100 due to climate change, increasing fastest in areas where temperatures are increasing and rainfall is diminishing. We explore a number of interventions that policy makers can pursue to limit the impact of climate change on food insecurity.
Region
Latin America and the Caribbean
JEL Codes
Q12, Q18, Q54