Agricultural Development Economics


A model of vulnerability to food insecurity
Jeronim Capaldo, Panagiotis Karfakis, Marco Knowles, Mark Smulders
Publication date
Empirical findings show that access to adequate and sufficient food in developing countries is unstable, suggesting that whether a household or individual is food secure at any point in time is best thought of in a dynamic sense. The more widely used food security analysis methods mainly consider current access to food, failing to provide policy makers with forward-looking information. While drawing on household survey data, the vulnerability analysis model presented here provides estimates of the probability that a given household will lose or gain access to sufficient food in the near future. We propose a model of vulnerability analysis that can improve policy design and targeting. We test the model with data from a survey of Nicaraguan households.
JEL Codes
I32, O2, Q18