The Maine lobster fishery started late due to late molting this year and landings have been slow. In Canada, landings have been much better. Prices have been stable but may rise in the coming months.

Supplies

Maine accounts for about 80 percent of the total lobster catch in the United States of America. Canadian processors buying lobster from Maine to fill their orders have been complaining that Maine landings were down by about 30 percent this year compared to 2018. The late molting of Maine lobsters, which may have been caused by the long and cold spring, resulted in a slow start for the lobster season. Molting is important because when a lobster sheds its shell and starts growing a new larger shell, it increases in total size to legal catch sizes. When molting starts late, the lobster
reaches larger size later too. The slow start of the Maine fishery did not push prices upwards in the beginning.

The Canadian lobster fishery normally starts a little later than the Maine fishery. During the past few years, fishermen have noticed that the lobster is moving further north, probably as a result of changing water temperatures. Newfoundland landings have been markedly up this year and overall landings in Canada have been good, about on par with 2018. Prices have started to edge upwards in the autumn.

International Trade

The trade war between the United States of America and China is stepping up, and some serious effects are being felt in the US East Coast lobster industry. US lobster sales to China were down by 80 percent during the first six months of 2019 compared to the same period of last year. US lobster exports to China during the first half of 2018 amounted to 5 400 tonnes, but during the same period in 2019 this had dropped to 988 tonnes. This has prompted some US lobster companies to reduce their staff.

At the same time, Canadian shipments of lobster to China have increased sharply. During the first half of the year, Canadian lobster exports to China reached 11 600 tonnes, compared to 6 197 tonnes during the same period in 2018. The value of Canadian lobsters sent to China during the first six months of the year amounted to USD 200 million, whereas total Canadian lobster sales to China in 2018 was USD 223 million.

Although the present situation is bleak for the Maine lobster industry, they are not giving up. Representatives of the industry state that they will be able to re-build the trade with China when the tariff is lifted again. However, the longer this trade war lasts, the more difficult it may be. Chinese buyers turned to other suppliers, mainly Canadian, to get their supplies of American lobster. some US lobster exporters have chosen to ship their lobsters to Canada for processing in order to reach the Chinese market. But in that process, they are losing profits by having to go through Canadian intermediaries.

Global world imports of lobster remained stable during the first six months of 2019 compared to the same period in 2018. The United States of America imported a little less, while China imported a bit more. The main exporter, Canada, increased its share of the total trade and accounted for 59.2 percent of total global exports compared to 44.1 percent in the first half of 2018.

Prices

Poor landings in Maine have put some pressure on prices, although not to the extent that one would expect. Maine landings were down during the review period, and curiously prices were also down in July. Wholesale price for a 1 lb lobster in Maine was USD 7.33 in the beginning of July, or USD 0.62 lower than last year on the same date.

In the Caribbean, high prices for spiny lobster have been reported. Prices paid at the start of the season were the highest ever, reaching about USD 14–15 per lb.

The Bahamas are now trying to gain a foothold in the Chinese lobster market and are well positioned to meet this goal as the Bahamas spiny lobster fishery recently received MSC certification.

Hurricane Dorian hit the Bahamas between 24 August and 10 September and was the worst natural disaster in the country’s history. The exact death toll is now estimated at 56, but more than 600 are still missing. Harbours and boats were smashed, and lobster traps were lost. Although it is still early days, it must be assumed that the effect of the hurricane on the fishing industry will be great. Lower landings of spiny lobster in the months to come are therefore expected.

Outlook

The supply situation seems relatively stable with regard to North American lobster. While Maine landings are down, Canadian landings have been higher than last year.

As long as the trade war between the United States of America and China continues, Canada will benefit and increasingly take over the Chinese market at the expense of US exporters. Demand in China is good and growing, and this should also push prices upwards.

Prices for spiny lobster are good, and prices in the Caribbean will remain high for some time. Demand is good and increasing all round.