During the past year, there have been significant changes in trade patterns of small pelagics. Shipments to China have been declining and instead gone up to the Republic of Korea and Japan. Moreover, Nigeria is once again active in the market. Supplies of herring may remain tight, while mackerel might be a little more abundant. 

Mackerel

In May, negotiations on mackerel quotas for 2021 between Norway, the European Union and the Faroes broke down, and Norway set its unilateral mackerel quota at 298 299 tonnes, up from 213 880 tonnes in 2020. The 2021 quota corresponds to 35 percent of the catch levels recommended by the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) in September 2020. The Faroe Islands and Iceland soon followed Norway’s lead and set their own unilateral quotas. The Faroe mackerel quota was set at 167 048 tonnes, which corresponds to 19.6 percent of the ICES recommendations. Iceland also set its unilateral quota, but this time lowered it from 152 000 tonnes in 2020 to 140 627 tonnes in 2021. This also follows the ICES recommendation as a basis for the calculation. As a reaction to this unilateral decisions, Scottish fishers have proposed that retailers and food suppliers in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland boycott mackerel from Norway and the Faroe Islands. They claim that these two countries have increased their share of the total mackerel quota by 55 percent. European fishers and their organisations are also opposing the Norwegian unilateral decision and calling on the European Union to take action against it. The mackerel quotas have been a difficult issue for several years. Since 2014, the European Union, Norway and the Faroe Islands have managed to agree on a joint sharing and management of the stocks. However, Iceland, the Russian Federation and Greenland have never been part of this arrangement but have instead set their own quotas. In 2020, Norwegian landings of Atlantic mackerel rose by 34 percent, causing prices to fall by some 15 percent, thus breaking the trend of rising prices which has lasted for several years. In 2021, prices recovered slightly. In 2020, Russian mackerel landings were down by 25 percent, to 233 000 tonnes. In addition, imports fell by 4 percent to 65 000 tonnes. But now both supplies and demand are picking up. However, the Russian quota for Atlantic mackerel is flat at 240 000 tonnes, and landings of Pacific mackerel – which have no quota set – are expected to remain stable. Norwegian exports of whole frozen mackerel during the first quarter of 2021 increased by 10.7 percent and reached 90 094 tonnes. The largest market was the Republic of Korea, with 19 437 tonnes, up by 132.3 percent compared to the same period in 2020. Shipments to China dropped by 3.7 percent, while exports to Japan increased by 54.5 percent. Chinese imports of whole frozen mackerel during this period dropped by a massive 62.5 percent to 22 685 tonnes. Of the main suppliers, only Norway experienced an increase in shipments, from 18 264 tonnes in the first quarter of 2020 to 19 606 tonnes during the same period in 2021. All the other top suppliers experienced serious declines, albeit from a very low level. 

Herring

The International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) expects that herring and blue whiting stocks will decline in coming years. Although catches of North Sea herring have been increasing in recent years, the past five years have not seen any large recruitment in the stocks, and recruitment since 2020 has been below earlier levels. The ICES catch advice for 2021 herring catch is 365 792 tonnes, which is 15 percent below the 2020 advice. For Norwegian spring-spawning herring, there has also been low recruitment since 2006 – 2007, but the fishing pressure is weak so the biomass should remain stable. Norwegian efforts to catch all of its North Sea herring quota in Norwegian waters before the fish migrates into UK waters did not get off to a good start. Bad weather interrupted the fishing. As of the end of May, the fleet had caught about 10 percent of the 103 315 tonne quota. At the same time in 2020, only 6 percent of the 2020 quota of 113 975 tonnes had been caught. According to reports, the herring is relatively small and not very fat. Prices are good, though: average first-hand price was NOK 6.06 per kg, compared to NOK 4.68 per kg in 2020. All of the catch was used for human consumption.

Poor landings in the North Sea herring fishery so far have led observers to believe that only about 90 percent of the Norwegian quota will be landed this year. The outlook could therefore be a shortage of herring for human consumption. Limited supply of herring for human consumption and fillet production in Norway improved prices a bit in early July. The herring size was in the range of 188 – 200 grammes, and demand has been better than supplies. Prices in the first week of July averaged NOK 6.30 per kg, while the average price at the same time in 2020 was slightly higher at NOK 6.43 per kg. During the first three months of 2021, Norwegian exports of whole frozen herring increased by 11.7 percent to 61 202 tonnes. Shipments to the largest market, Nigeria, shot up by over 300 percent to 26 152 tonnes, from 6 480 tonnes during the same period in 2020. Exports to Nigeria are highly volatile, so such an extreme increase is not unusual. Exports to the second largest market, Egypt, fell by 50 percent to 10 101 tonnes. Russian exports of whole frozen herring increased sharply during the first quarter of 2021, up 61.1 percent compared to the first quarter of 2020, to 45 818 tonnes. Shipments to Nigeria went from nothing in 2020 to 18 086 tonnes in 2021, while shipments to the Republic of Korea increased by 195 percent to 12 112 tonnes. 

Capelin

Icelandic vessels started fishing capelin at the end of February, while Norwegian vessels fishing in Icelandic waters had to finish their fishing by 22 February 2021. The total capelin quota for 2021 was set at 127 300 tonnes, of which Iceland gets 69 834 tonnes, and Norway 41 808 tonnes. The Norwegians had filled their quota by 22 February, but the maturity (roe content) at that time was not as high as desired. Asian markets consider 14 percent roe content optimum. By mid-April, Iceland had caught 44 600 tonnes of their quota. 

Capelin is also appearing in great numbers on the coast of Norway, in the very north. Over a period of some months, capelin has been observed along the coast, and whales that feed on this fish have had a field day, according to observers. Cod is also feeding on capelin, and large amounts of capelin in the region is attracting more cod. It is not normal that capelin is observed in such large amounts as late as May.

Anchovy

In April, the Peruvian Ministry of Production (Produce) set the quota for the first anchovy season at 2.5 million tonnes. This was 4 percent higher than the 2020 quota of 2.413 million tonnes, and 19 percent higher than the 2019 quota. However, it was 10 percent lower than the quota of 2.8 million tonnes for the second season in 2020. Produce also set a quota for anchovies for direct human consumption of 150 000 tonnes for 2021. This is a small fraction of the total quota.

Peruvian authorities had warned that they might reduce the quota if there was a high presence of juvenile fish in the catches. However, so far, juvenile fish has not exceeded 11 – 13 percent. By the beginning of July, Peruvian vessels had landed 2.35 million tonnes or 94 percent of the total quota in the north-central waters. At the end of June, the authorities announced the start of the second anchovy season in the country’s southern zone. The TAC is set at 409 000 tonnes. The season will run from July through December. 

Outlook

At the North Atlantic Seafood Forum in June, seafood analysts expect a drop in total catches, following increased landings in 2020, when the global supply of small pelagics increased by some 5 percent to about 20.6 million tonnes. This increase was caused mainly by a large rise in Peru’s anchovy catches, and an increase in mackerel landings. Of the total small pelagic landings, up to 52 percent was for reduction to fishmeal and fish oil, 87 percent for anchovy catch and about 80 percent of the blue whiting catch went for reduction purposes.

For the small pelagics destined to human consumption, a 190 000-tonne decline in landings is expected, led by lower mackerel and blue whiting quotas. Supplies of herring may become tight this year, and the North Sea fish is smaller and leaner than the market prefers. For mackerel, supplies should be more abundant from Norway and the Faroe Islands, while UK and the EU supplies may be tighter. Prices are expected to remain stable, though. Anchovy supplies to the fishmeal and fish oil industry in South America are expected to be good. Peru’s TAC for the first season was high. A very small portion of the quota is allocated for human consumption, and this could possibly be increased as demand for human consumption is growing in the region.