Non-canned tuna market revived but weakened for canned and processed tuna
16/12/2021
On the supply side, tuna catches were low worldwide during the third quarter of 2021, balancing slow demand for frozen raw material from tuna canners. But prices are under pressure due to lack of demand for end products.
SUPPLY
During the third quarter of 2021, tuna catches in the Pacific Ocean were low when two scheduled fishing closures were in place. In the Western and Central Pacific (WCPO), the 3-month FAD fishing closure was on during July-September. Subsequently overall catches declined. The 72-day IATTC ‘veda’ also took place in the Eastern Central Pacific (EPO) from 29 July - 8 October 2021 when 49 percent of the regional boats stopped tuna fishing.
Moderate catches were reported in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans during this period, where canneries have had adequate raw materials in the back drop of slow demand for end products in export markets.
In the European Union, most of the tuna canneries were closed in August for summer break and resumed operations in September 2021.
Raw material imports
The outbreak of COVID-19 cases in Thailand during the first half of 2021 disrupted raw material imports and export processing. Yet, total imports of frozen tuna for canning were 1.45 percent higher at 348 350 tonnes (whole frozen skipjack, yellowfin, and albacore, and cooked loins) against the same period last year. Notably supplies of frozen skipjack and cooked loins increased by 22 percent and 4.5 percent respectively during this period.
Tuna canners in Spain also imported less raw materials during this period (-22 percent at 60 455 tonnes of whole fish; -14.6 percent at 60 000 tonnes of cooked frozen loins). French imports of cooked loins also declined by 12 percent but increased in Italy and Portugal by 11 percent and 3 percent respectively.
Others
European Union: The reopening of the HORECA sector this summer induced imports of fresh and frozen tuna in the EU Common Market for non-canned usages (sashimi and non-sashimi). Compared with the same period of last year, fresh tuna imports during January-June 2021 increased by 31 percent at 1 530 tonnes. The main suppliers were Sri Lanka and the Maldives. Similarly, imports of frozen tuna fillets also increased by 8.3 percent at nearly 13 000 tonnes during this period. The top five markets were Spain, France, Italy, Germany, and the Netherlands. Imports increased in all these markets except in France.
Imports of frozen tuna fillets were robust in the Russian Federation at 2 330 tonnes (+41 percent) and also in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (+63 percent at 1 400 tonnes) and in Switzerland (+80 percent at 195 tonnes) during the review period.
In the Asia/Pacific region, tuna fillet imports were higher in the Republic of Korea, Australia, Taiwan Province of China, Singapore, and in Hong Kong SAR during January-June 2021 compared to the same period of last year.
Canned tuna exports declined from most of the producing countries in Asia and Europe due to the shift in demand during the first half of 2021. Compared with last year, export shortfalls from Thailand, Spain, and Indonesia were high during January-June 2021. Meanwhile, the Philippines, a top producer of large/ institutional tuna packs, was less affected from this trend.
Imports
Similarly demand weakened in the large western markets (United States of America, the European Union) and falling imports were also recorded in the Middle East, West Africa and Southeast Asia.
North and South America
Following weaker demand in the retail trade, imports of canned and processed tuna declined further during the second quarter of 2021, compared with the first quarter of the year. US imports were at a 3-year low (-10 percent) affecting supplies from all top producers but Indonesia. Imports in Canada also declined by 10.4 percent at 18 110 tonnes during the review period.
In Latin America imports increased in Mexico and Argentina but declined in Colombia, Chile, and Peru. Ecuador was the main supplier to these markets.
Europe
Retail sales of canned tuna slowed down throughout Europe affecting overall imports of canned and processed tuna. Meanwhile, demand in the catering trade rebounded strongly during the summer months.
In the European Union, half-yearly imports of processed tuna including cooked loins were at a 3-year low in 2021 at 343 340 tonnes. Supplies from non-EU sources which had a 78 percent (268 250 tonnes) share in total imports fell by 10.6 percent compared with the same period of last year.
The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland reported a seven percent fall in processed tuna imports during the review period. Switzerland and the Russian Federation also imported 16 percent less each compared with last year’s same period.
In the large Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, imports slowed down in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and other large markets which are generally supplied by Southeast Asian producers. Notably, canned tuna exports from Thailand (the top supplier to the Middle East) increased to Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Yemen and Algeria, during January-June 2021 but declined to Saudi Arabia, Libya, Jordan, Lebanon and some other small markets in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region.
Tuna prices are relatively stable in Europe for whole frozen skipjack, yellowfin and cooked frozen loins as canneries restarted operations after the summer break.
Due to falling exports of end products, raw material imports in Thailand fell by 23 percent during August 2021 compared with 2020. This weakening trend will result in more frozen fish being shipped to Ecuador, particularly for the processing of cooked loins in Europe, as raw material prices are better in Ecuador compared to Thailand.
Imports of canned tuna in the major markets are expected to remain weak until local inventories of end products are reduced. Demand from the catering trade is likely to slow down until the year-end holiday season.
Demand for non-canned tuna, particularly for sashimi usages will improve during the winter months in Japan where consumer demand traditionally peaks during the last two weeks of the year for celebrations. In China, there was increased consumption of sashimi tuna during the Autumn festival holidays in October. In the western market, consumption in the catering trade will be strong, but retail demand will likely remain low during the winter months.
The global tuna trade in 2021 has been characterised by improved demand for non-canned tuna, falling retail demand of canned tuna and improved sales opportunities in the hotel, restaurant and catering (HORECA) sector, particularly in the western markets.
On the supply side, tuna catches were low worldwide during the third quarter of 2021, balancing slow demand for frozen raw material from tuna canners. But prices are under pressure due to lack of demand for end products.
SUPPLY
During the third quarter of 2021, tuna catches in the Pacific Ocean were low when two scheduled fishing closures were in place. In the Western and Central Pacific (WCPO), the 3-month FAD fishing closure was on during July-September. Subsequently overall catches declined. The 72-day IATTC ‘veda’ also took place in the Eastern Central Pacific (EPO) from 29 July - 8 October 2021 when 49 percent of the regional boats stopped tuna fishing.
Moderate catches were reported in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans during this period, where canneries have had adequate raw materials in the back drop of slow demand for end products in export markets.
In the European Union, most of the tuna canneries were closed in August for summer break and resumed operations in September 2021.
Raw material imports
The outbreak of COVID-19 cases in Thailand during the first half of 2021 disrupted raw material imports and export processing. Yet, total imports of frozen tuna for canning were 1.45 percent higher at 348 350 tonnes (whole frozen skipjack, yellowfin, and albacore, and cooked loins) against the same period last year. Notably supplies of frozen skipjack and cooked loins increased by 22 percent and 4.5 percent respectively during this period.
Tuna canners in Spain also imported less raw materials during this period (-22 percent at 60 455 tonnes of whole fish; -14.6 percent at 60 000 tonnes of cooked frozen loins). French imports of cooked loins also declined by 12 percent but increased in Italy and Portugal by 11 percent and 3 percent respectively.
Fresh and frozen tuna market (non-canned)
Improved outdoor activities in the summer months boosted consumer demand for non-canned tuna in 2021. However, imports of fresh/air-flown tuna still remain low as scheduled international flights have yet to resume and the record high sea-freight rate increases import cost. Nonetheless, imports of sashimi and non-sashimi grade tuna increased in many markets during the first half of 2021 and good demand continued throughout the summer months.
Japan
For the first time in many years, half yearly imports of fresh and frozen tuna in Japan posted an impressive growth (+8.7 percent) over 2020, reaching nearly 98 000 tonnes. This may be linked with business opportunities achieved during the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics, held in 2021.The two categories displayed positive trends for fresh tuna (+56 percent at 4 000 tonnes) and frozen tuna fillet (+24 percent at 36 360 tonnes).
United States of America
The US non-canned tuna market rebounded strongly during January-June 2021 with a 12 percent rise in total imports (29 000 tonnes). Fresh tuna imports increased by 25 percent in response to good demand from the sashimi/sushi trade. Imports of the popular product group (frozen loins/steaks) also increased by seven percent with higher supplies from Viet Nam, Thailand, Taiwan Province of China, Canada and Japan.
Others
European Union: The reopening of the HORECA sector this summer induced imports of fresh and frozen tuna in the EU Common Market for non-canned usages (sashimi and non-sashimi). Compared with the same period of last year, fresh tuna imports during January-June 2021 increased by 31 percent at 1 530 tonnes. The main suppliers were Sri Lanka and the Maldives. Similarly, imports of frozen tuna fillets also increased by 8.3 percent at nearly 13 000 tonnes during this period. The top five markets were Spain, France, Italy, Germany, and the Netherlands. Imports increased in all these markets except in France.
Imports of frozen tuna fillets were robust in the Russian Federation at 2 330 tonnes (+41 percent) and also in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (+63 percent at 1 400 tonnes) and in Switzerland (+80 percent at 195 tonnes) during the review period.
In the Asia/Pacific region, tuna fillet imports were higher in the Republic of Korea, Australia, Taiwan Province of China, Singapore, and in Hong Kong SAR during January-June 2021 compared to the same period of last year.
Canned Tuna Trade
With the opening of the HORECA sector, the trading pattern of canned tuna has taken a different turn in 2021. Since early summer, demand for institutional packs improved strongly in favour of the catering trade, while home consumption slowed down significantly disrupting sales of retail packs in several markets.
Export
Canned tuna exports declined from most of the producing countries in Asia and Europe due to the shift in demand during the first half of 2021. Compared with last year, export shortfalls from Thailand, Spain, and Indonesia were high during January-June 2021. Meanwhile, the Philippines, a top producer of large/ institutional tuna packs, was less affected from this trend.
Imports
Similarly demand weakened in the large western markets (United States of America, the European Union) and falling imports were also recorded in the Middle East, West Africa and Southeast Asia.
North and South America
Following weaker demand in the retail trade, imports of canned and processed tuna declined further during the second quarter of 2021, compared with the first quarter of the year. US imports were at a 3-year low (-10 percent) affecting supplies from all top producers but Indonesia. Imports in Canada also declined by 10.4 percent at 18 110 tonnes during the review period.
In Latin America imports increased in Mexico and Argentina but declined in Colombia, Chile, and Peru. Ecuador was the main supplier to these markets.
Europe
Retail sales of canned tuna slowed down throughout Europe affecting overall imports of canned and processed tuna. Meanwhile, demand in the catering trade rebounded strongly during the summer months.
In the European Union, half-yearly imports of processed tuna including cooked loins were at a 3-year low in 2021 at 343 340 tonnes. Supplies from non-EU sources which had a 78 percent (268 250 tonnes) share in total imports fell by 10.6 percent compared with the same period of last year.
The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland reported a seven percent fall in processed tuna imports during the review period. Switzerland and the Russian Federation also imported 16 percent less each compared with last year’s same period.
Asia / Pacific and Others
The weaker demand for canned tuna also persisted in Japan and other markets in southeast Asia. The only exception was Thailand where imports, mostly consisting of cooked loins for reprocessing, were 4.5 percent higher compared to last year’s corresponding period.
In the large Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, imports slowed down in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and other large markets which are generally supplied by Southeast Asian producers. Notably, canned tuna exports from Thailand (the top supplier to the Middle East) increased to Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Yemen and Algeria, during January-June 2021 but declined to Saudi Arabia, Libya, Jordan, Lebanon and some other small markets in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region.
Price
Lack of demand from Thai canners pushed down the delivery price of frozen skipjack to USD 1 300 per tonne in September, a 13 percent drop compared to August. In Ecuador, skipjack prices were USD 400 per tonne higher than Bangkok prices, shifting supplies to Eastern Pacific canneries in Manta. Skipjack prices are also weakening in the Indian Ocean, although frozen inventories at local canneries are limited. The price of frozen yellowfin for canning has remained stable.
Tuna prices are relatively stable in Europe for whole frozen skipjack, yellowfin and cooked frozen loins as canneries restarted operations after the summer break.
Outlook
Tuna catches are expected to be moderate in the Pacific Ocean until the end of the year.
Due to falling exports of end products, raw material imports in Thailand fell by 23 percent during August 2021 compared with 2020. This weakening trend will result in more frozen fish being shipped to Ecuador, particularly for the processing of cooked loins in Europe, as raw material prices are better in Ecuador compared to Thailand.
Imports of canned tuna in the major markets are expected to remain weak until local inventories of end products are reduced. Demand from the catering trade is likely to slow down until the year-end holiday season.
Demand for non-canned tuna, particularly for sashimi usages will improve during the winter months in Japan where consumer demand traditionally peaks during the last two weeks of the year for celebrations. In China, there was increased consumption of sashimi tuna during the Autumn festival holidays in October. In the western market, consumption in the catering trade will be strong, but retail demand will likely remain low during the winter months.