The North Sea mackerel quota for 2023 was reduced by 13 percent, and the moratorium on the Canadian mackerel fishery has been extended, and there is a shortage of mackerel in the Japanese fishery. Meanwhile, the North Sea herring fishery was given a 28 percent increased quota for 2024, but landings have been poor during the first half of 2023. In South America, the anchovy fishery has also been disappointing.

Mackerel

The Norwegian mackerel quota for the 2022-2023 season was reduced by 13 percent. However, thetotal amount landed amounted to 370 000 tonnes, a 4 percent increase compared to the 2021 – 2022 season.

In the first half of 2023, 53 292 tonnes of mackerel were landed in Norway, against 56 299 tonnes in 2022. First-hand prices went up marginally from NOK 15.11 per kg in 2022 to NOK 15.77 per kg in 2023.

Due to a shortage of mackerel in Japan’s domestic waters, some fishing companies have suspended selling mackerel. Supplies from other countries have been difficult, too. Mackerel is a big seller in Japan, especially since a 2018 TV promotion focusing on its health benefits.

The Canadian Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) announced at the end of June that it had also extended the 2022 moratorium on mackerel fishing in Atlantic Canada and Quebec for the 2023 season. Mackerel is used, among other uses, as a bait for the important lobster fishery.

Canada’s mackerel has been in the “critical zone”, which means serious harm may occur, for more than 10 years. Stock rebuilding is at present limited by a collapse in the age structure, mainly due to overfishing, low recruitment and high predation pressure. The next step now is to develop and implement a high-quality rebuilding plan, including improved fisheries monitoring, especially for bait fishing.

Trade

Norwegian exporters of mackerel are experiencing strong demand in Asia and the export value increased in May in spite of this being considered a low season.

Norwegian mackerel exports during the first three months of 2023 increased by 12.4 percent to 71 385 tonnes, up from 61 452 tonnes during the same period in 2022. By value, exports increased from NOK 1.2 billion (USD 109 million) during the first quarter of 2022 to NOK 1.4 billion (USD 128 million) during the same period in 2023. The largest markets for whole frozen mackerel from Norway were the Republic of Korea (13 620 tonnes), Japan (11 740 tonnes) and Viet Nam (6 540 tonnes).

There has been a shift in the market structure for Norwegian frozen mackerel recently. Previously, a lot of mackerel went to China for processing and re-export to Japan, but now more goes directly to Japan. There has also been an increase in exports to Viet Nam and Indonesia.

The Republic of Korea is still the largest market for Norwegian mackerel though. Other Asian countries are also very important markets for Norwegian mackerel. The price trend is on an upward curve.

China’s imports of whole frozen mackerel during the first quarter of 2023 dropped by over 30 percent to 14 687 tonnes, compared to 21 153 tonnes during the first quarter of 2022. The two largest suppliers registered declines: Norway reduced shipments by 2.5 percent to 11 465 tonnes. Nevertheless, Norway still accounted for over 78 percent of all Chinese imports of whole frozen mackerel.

Herring

The International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) recently released its advice for herring fishing in the North Sea, Skagerrak and Kattegat, the eastern English channel and the Iceland ground, raising the available catch levels in these areas. According to ICES, fishing pressure on herring in these regions is currently below the maximum sustainable yield (MSY). ICES advised that the catch in the North Sea should not exceed 532 166 tonnes in 2024, which represents a 28 percent increase compared to the advice given for 2023. The countries that fish for North Sea herring have set an agreed total allowable catch (TAC) well below the advice; for 2023, they set the level at 396 556 tonnes, while the ICES advice was 414 886 tonnes.

Norges Sildesalgslag (the Norwegian Herring Sales Organization) reported at the end of June that landings so far this year were disappointing. A total of 49 597 tonnes of North Sea Herring were landed during the first half of 2023, compared to 102 719 tonnes during the same period in 2022. The average price to fishermen went up significantly, though: from NOK 6.31 per kg in 2022 to NOK 8.32 per kg in 2023. The herring has been of a smaller size than usual, and the fat content seems to have taken longer to build up. The herring caught in the early summer (May) was small and lean, but it was expected to improve in June.

Spring-spawning herring, on the other hand, did better: from 166 296 tonnes during the first half of 2022 to 176 016 tonnes during the same period in 2023. First-hand prices paid to fishermen also went up, from NOK 7.00 per kg in 2022 to NOK 7.90 in 2023.

Icelandic “summer spawning” herring carries the Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) certification, giving it an advantage in the market. Demand for the Icelandic MSC herring is very good for canned herring in Germany and other northern European countries where the eco-label carries a premium. There is also good demand in Eastern Europe, but availability of the MSC certified mackerel is not always adequate, and the market has to “settle for” Norwegian spring-spawning herring that no longer has the MSC certification.

Meanwhile, the Russian herring fishery was off to a good start. In 2022, Russian vessels landed 590 000 tonnes, which was an increase of 16 percent compared to the five-year average. Most of the Russian herring (about 60 percent) is exported to China, with some quantities also being shipped to the Republic of Korea.

Canada’s Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) announced on 30 June that the TAC for the herring autumn fishery in the Southern Gulf of Saint Lawrence was set at 10 000 tonnes. This is a reduction from the 12 000 tonnes that was provided in 2020 and 2021.

There is not much interest in the herring fishery in Alaska. The main reason is that market demand for herring roe is dwindling, and the fishermen do not find it profitable to fish herring at the low prices and low demand experienced at present.

Trade

Norwegian herring exports during the first quarter of 2023 declined by 8.8 percent to 63 980 tonnes, compared to 70 180 tonnes during the same period in 2022. The largest markets were Egypt (22 960 tonnes), Poland (13 130 tonnes) and Denmark (6 230 tonnes).

Russian exports of whole frozen herring took a leap upwards during the first quarter of 2023. Total exports went from 31 371 tonnes during the first quarter of 2022 to 52 904 tonnes in the same period in 2023 (+68.6 percent). China, which was the largest market, took over half of this: 27 741 tonnes, compared to just 9 014 tonnes in 2022. The second and third largest markets were the Republic of Korea and Nigeria.

Anchovy/Sardines

The Peruvian Ministry of Production (PRODUCE) in May cancelled the main anchovy fishing season in the country’s north-central zone, mainly in an effort to bring this fishery to sustainability. The decision will affect the production of fishmeal negatively, and fishmeal prices may be expected to rise as a result. The decision was based on a high presence of juveniles, which is seen as the result of the effects of El Niño. At the time of cancellation, the preliminary TAC had been set at 1.09 million tonnes, which was below half of the traditional TAC levels.

According to PRODUCE, the preliminary explorations carried out between 3 and 7 June concluded that there were no good biological conditions for the proper development of fishing activities. The inclusion of juveniles was extremely high (86.3 percent), indicating that the resources needed badly to be left alone to rebuild itself.

Japan is reporting the rebounding of sardine stocks in its waters in early 2023. Catches of spotlined sardines (Sardinops melanostictus) have been strong in Japan this year since the beginning of February. However, the development is not greeted by everyone, since the cheaper sardine is taking market shares from the more lucrative mackerel sales.

At the end of June, China imported the first batch of dried wild anchovies from Kenya. This was a first for the African country, and although the shipment was quite small (315 kg), it was still an opening which might develop further in the future.

Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda have a significant production of dried freshwater anchovies (dagaa) from Lake Victoria, but practically all of this is consumed locally or exported to neighbouring countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Outlook

While mackerel supplies may be more or less the same as last year in 2023, they will be considerably tighter in 2024. Herring supplies are expected to improve in 2024, even though the herring fisheries in Canada and Alaska will not produce anything.

The outlook for anchovies is poor as Peru has cancelled the fishing season in the north-central zone. The event of the El Niño will impact production as normal during years of this type of environmental setting. A reduction of production by over one million tonnes is certain to be felt in the market.

It looks like prices for mackerel and also for herring will rise. However, if the herring fishery in the northeast Atlantic improves significantly during the second half of the year, this could improve availability and put some pressure on herring prices.