Global demand for frozen tuna raw material and end products  weakened during the first half of 2023 along with lower catches in the Pacific. Frozen tuna prices reached a five-year high level impacted exports of canned and processed tuna from Southeast Asia and Europe. Demand for non-canned tuna weakened in North America and Europe.

Supply

During the first half of 2023, tuna catches in the major fishing grounds were lower than the same period a year ago. Catches in the Central and Western Pacific (CWP) were especially disappointing. In comparison catches in the Eastern Pacific Ocean were better and allowed stable supplies of raw material to the tuna packers in Manta, Ecuador.

Relatively stable catches in the Indian Ocean compensated supply short falls to Southeast Asian tuna packers but at prices higher than the last four years. The delivery price of frozen skipjack to Thailand reached a five year high at USD 2 000-2 030 per tonne during April to July 2023. In Thailand imports of raw frozen and pre-cooked tuna declined this year. 

Raw material import trends

With the backdrop of lower catches of oceanic tuna, rising fish prices and lacklustre demand for end products in North America and Europe, tuna packers in Southeast Asia and Europe reduced raw material imports during the first quarter of 2023.  

Since the last quarter of 2022, tuna packers in Thailand reduced raw material imports. The approach continued during the first quarter of 2023. Cumulative imports during January-March 2023 remained almost the same  as last year at 154 350 tonnes. Despite the rise in prices, imports of frozen skipjack went up by 4.16 percent at 123 160 tonnes but declined for yellowfin (-28 percent, 20 360 tonnes). There was a significant decline in cooked loin imports (-55 percent, 8 640 tonnes) during the review period.

The trend was similar in the Philippines where imports of frozen skipjack increased marginally (+3.5 percent, 25 530 tonnes) but declined by 62 percent for frozen yellowfin at 5 526 tonnes.

In Ecuador frozen tuna imports were higher by 66 percent at 21 895 tonnes to cater to rising demand for end products from the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and Latin America.

Among the  European tuna packers, frozen tuna imports in Spain were 13.3 percent higher at 20 385 tonnes but declined for cooked frozen loins by 7.6 percent at 39 780 tonnes during January-March 2023. Imports of cooked loins were also low in Italy, France and Portugal during this period.  

FRESH AND FROZEN TUNA MARKET (NON-CANNED)

Exports and Imports

During the first quarter of 2023, demand for sashimi tuna was moderate  in the emerging markets worldwide but weakened for non-sashimi grade fish.

Post COVID-19 reopening of Japanese restaurants worldwide renewed consumer demand for high value bluefin tuna in many markets. Meanwhile yellowfin tuna continues to be replaced by cheaper salmon for preparing sushi.

During the first quarter in 2023 fresh tuna imports in the United States of America were 7 percent higher than the previous year. Japan held the second position but with declines in imports. Fresh tuna imports in the first three months of 2023 crossed the 1 000 tonnes level in the European Union with increased imports of bluefin (300 tonnes) and yellowfin (655 tonnes) during this period. Spain, Italy and France were the top importers of this product form.  

The reopening of Japanese restaurants in China and Thailand boosted demand for fresh bluefin in these markets. During the first quarter of 2023 fresh bluefin imports in China increased by 51 percent at 316 tonnes. The trend was similar in Thailand.

International trade for frozen tuna fillets weakened during January-March 2023.There were declining imports in Japan, the United States of America, and the European Union linked with unsold stocks bought in 2022. However, imports increased in the emerging markets in Southeast Asia and the Far East.

The top exporters of frozen tuna fillet were Viet Nam, Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, Spain, and China.

Main Markets

JAPAN

Demand for sashimi tuna improved in Japan during the Spring festivals in April and May. However, restaurant operators reported lower than expected sales associated with poor flow of foreign tourists, particularly from China.

Overall imports of fresh and frozen tuna increased by 20 percent at 46 775 tonnes during the first quarter of 2023. Among the main product group, imports of high value fresh/chilled tuna and ultra-frozen tuna fillet were lower than the 2022 same period, as overall consumer demand for sashimi tuna remained weak in the market.

United States of America

The United States of America is the second largest import market for sashimi and non-sashimi tuna. Demand for high value fresh bluefin remains strong from Japanese restaurants for which imports were 13.4 percent higher at 1 090 tonnes during the first quarter of 2023. Imports of fresh bigeye tuna also increased by 7.8 percent during this period at 950 tonnes.

Notably, imports of frozen fillets/steaks declined during the review period in 2023 associated with slow demand in the retail trade. Indonesia overtook Viet Nam as the top supplier with a 40 percent stake in total imports. Fillet imports also increased from Thailand and the Maldives during this period.

Others

Consumer demand for non-canned tuna was seasonally low in the EU common market during the first quarter of 2023. There was a 18 percent decline in fresh bluefin imports during this period at 300 tonnes; fresh yellowfin imports fell by 5 percent at 655 tonnes. Europe imported 8 370 tonnes of frozen tuna fillet during this period which was 25 percent less than the same period in 2022; Spain, Italy, France and Portugal were the top importers .

During this period imports of frozen tuna fillets declined in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (-9 percent; 540 tonnes) but increased moderately in Ukraine (425 tonnes) and Switzerland(115 tonnes).     

In the Asia/Pacific region, demand for high value sashimi grade tuna increased in China, the Republic of Korea, Thailand, and Hong Kong SAR along with the reopening of Japanese restaurants in these markets. Outside Japan, China operates the highest number of Japanese restaurants.

CANNED TUNA TRADE

International trade for processed and semi-processed tuna started to weaken during the last quarter of 2022 along with rising prices of tuna raw material. The trend continued in 2023 particularly in the western markets while demand improved moderately in the Middle East and East Asian regions.     

EXPORTS

During the first quarter of 2023, overall exports of canned tuna declined from Thailand along with a 21 percent fall in imports from the top market of the United States of America. Ecuador and China also lost share in the global market because of falling exports of cooked loins to European tuna packers.  

Imports

Overall demand for ‘ready to eat’ and semi-processed tuna remains dull in the markets in the Americas and in Europe in 2023 along with increased prices of end products. In comparison, imports increased in the Middle East and North African markets.

North and South America

 In the United States of America, the largest single market for ‘ready to eat’ tuna, volume imports recovered by 4.7 percent at 57 260 tonnes during January-March 2023, while their import value increased by 10 percent at USD 299 million. In Canada, canned tuna imports increased by 34 percent at 9 005 tonnes despite the rise in prices. Imports increased in Mexico by 40 percent at 5 130 tonnes.

In Latin America, canned tuna imports in Colombia, Chile, Argentina, Brazil were lower than last year’s affecting exports from Ecuador.

Europe

Demand for ‘ready to eat’ tuna in the European Union markets remained low in the retail trade during the review period. However, demand for institutional packs improved at the hotel, restaurant and catering (HORECA) sector.

During the first quarter of 2023, the European Union imported 183 420 tonnes of processed and canned tuna, which is 2.6 percent lower than the corresponding period in 2022. Imports of cooked loins which had a 35 percent share in total imports of processed tuna also declined by 15.4 percent at 65 500 tonnes. Among the top EU markets, imports weakened in Spain (-5.7 percent at 50 845 tonnes) but remained stable in Italy (42 000 tonnes) and increased by 11 percent in France at 23 580 tonnes.   

In the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, canned tuna imports increased moderately (+5.4 percent; 21 235 tonnes) and also in Ukraine (+41 percent; 645 tonnes) but declined in Norway (-33 percent; 345 tonnes) and in Switzerland (-22.7 percent; 1 895 tonnes) following last year’s trend.

MENA, Asia / Pacific and Others

In the large Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, canned tuna imports increased during the first quarter of 2023 mostly supplied by Thailand and Indonesia. During this review period nearly 35 percent of canned tuna exports from Thailand went to MENA markets. The large importers in the MENA region are Saudi Arabia, Libya, United Arab Emirates, and Egypt.

Imports also increased in the Far East and Pacific region (Japan, Australia, New Zealand) during this period. Household demand for canned tuna in South East Asia remains unchanged at low level. However, the return of Arab tourists created seasonal demand for popular United Arab Emirates brands of ‘tuna in oil’ now available in supermarkets and grocery shops in Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia.  

Prices

Since the beginning of 2023 frozen tuna prices for canning are high at levels not seen in the recent years. As of July 2023, the delivery price of frozen skipjack from Central and Western Pacific to Thailand was at a 5-year high at USD 2 030 per tonne. Prices of pre-cooked skipjack loins also reached high levels at USD 6 670 and USD 8 800 per tonne. At these price levels, tuna canners worldwide remained cautious, limiting imports of raw material.

Outlook

The July-September FAD-fishing closure in the Western and Central Pacific  will reduce fishing  operations in that area. Fishing will also slow down in the Eastern Pacific Ocean where the first 72-day IATTC ‘veda’ commenced on 29 July. Nearly 39 percent of the Eastern Pacific Ocean tuna fishing  fleet opted to stop fishing during this period. Overall supply of tuna will be lower than average and tuna prices may increase further.    

During the first half of 2023, imports of frozen raw material declined in South East Asia and Europe associated with high prices and reduced  demand for end products in North America and Europe. Canned tuna exports declined during this period from Thailand, Ecuador, and China. This trend is unlikely to reverse for the rest of the year.

For the higher value non-canned tuna, consumer demand was good during the summer months in North America and Far East Asia but is expected to slow down from September until the year end and New Year celebrations.

During the first half of 2023, there was a significant decline in US imports of frozen tuna fillet and steaks (-37.5 percent; 16 335 tonnes). This negative trend is likely to continue for the remainder of the year.