Shrimp imports to the top ten markets were 8% more compared with the corresponding period a year ago. Shrimp prices in general were firm during the third quarter of 2014, but remained below the extremely high rates recorded in 2013. Export prices, however, weakened during the October-December 2014 period, when the large traditional markets carried out year-end purchases. The trend persisted into January this year. 

Supply

The peak farming season in the Asian producing countries ended by early November and supplies have slowed down since then. However, unlike 2013, prices declined by 10-15% during November and December compared with September as a result of poor demand from the United States of America, the European Union and Japan. Direct imports into China were also lower from India and Ecuador among others, while indirect imports into China are taking place through Viet Nam. The Chinese New Year celebration in mid-February will keep demand strong in the oriental markets in Asia.

Meanwhile, the reports on production in 2014 are available for some countries. Supply in the largest producing country, China, is likely to be lower than in 2013; aquaculture production of vannamei shrimp in the four southern provinces was affected by typhoons during the main farming season and the domestic price remained firm during the second half of 2014 with rising imports.

In Thailand, shrimp aquaculture is yet to recover from early mortality syndrome (EMS) and production is likely to decline by 25% in 2014 compared with 2013. Preliminary estimates suggest 180 000 to 200 000 tonnes of production in 2014.

Production increased moderately in India by 14 or 15% compared with 2013. The unofficial data indicated 300 000 tonnes of vannamei and 20 000 tonnes of black tiger shrimp production in 2014, compared with the volumes of 250 000 tonnes and 30 000 tonnes respectively a year ago. Increased exports to most of the markets also confirm this trend.

The annual data for Viet Nam is not available yet but production of vannamei is likely to be higher than in 2013 according to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP).

Ecuador possibly had the highest growth rate at between 15 and 25% depending on the full year estimates; the National Chamber of Aquaculture indicated about 245 000 tonnes of production in 2014 compared with 214 000 tonnes in 2013. Farmed shrimp production in Nicaragua was also reached 28 500 tonnes, which is 23% more than 2013.

Import and export trends

The top ten shrimp importing markets in order of ranking were the EU, the USA, Japan, Viet Nam, the Republic of Korea, China, Hong Kong SAR, Mexico, Canada and Australia. These markets bought 1.3 million tonnes of shrimp during the first nine months of 2014, which is 8% or 100 000 tonnes more than in the same period a year ago. However, there were negative trends in Japan (-19%), Hong Kong SAR (-10%) and Canada (-5%).

In export trade, India, Ecuador, China, Indonesia, Viet Nam and Thailand were the top suppliers. Shrimp exports from India increased by 47% in quantity and 71% in value during the reporting period, whereas the growth rates for Ecuador were 35% in quantity and 57% in value. Exports from China and Thailand declined by 15% and 31% respectively.

Japan

Domestic sales of shrimp were good during the year-end festive season and the product groups in demand were the high value sea-caught tropical shrimp and processed shrimp such as raw nobashi and tempura shrimp. Sales of headless shell-on farmed vannamei were at a record low while promotional campaigns during December 2013 were mainly for the cheaper Atlantic seabob shrimp.

Despite lower imports, wholesale prices of raw shell-on vannamei were 20% lower in December 2014 compared with the same month a year ago. Even then, there was very little improvement in demand from supermarkets and other intermediary users.

The yen depreciation has made the import business extremely difficult in Japan throughout the year. Landing costs for imported seafood increased and domestic prices also went up, causing resistance from end consumers. Marketers are very much concerned about further rises in local prices, as these will not be acceptable by the retail or catering trade.

During the January-September 2014 period, total shrimp imports, raw and prepared, were nearly 35 000 tonnes lower than in the same period in 2013. With the exception of frozen ebi (largely supplied by New Zealand), imports fell for every product group. The top three suppliers in the market were Viet Nam (34 477 tonnes), Thailand (25 857 tonnes) and Indonesia (21 929 tonnes). Demand for coldwater shrimp was better and supplies increased from Argentina and Russia.

With these trends, total imports of shrimp in 2014 could reach about half of the 320,000 tonnes imported in 1994.

USA

Despite some price weakening import demand from US buyers remained quite low. Supplies seem to exceed demand, while wholesale prices remained steady at levels that are still quite high compared with historical patterns. Imports in 2014 were much higher than a year ago and the domestic distribution chain is holding large inventories bought at high prices.

On the macroeconomic level, conditions are favourable. The USA economy overall is growing, with GDP increasing 3.5% in the third quarter of 2014. On a microeconomic level, favourable signs can also be seen. Gasoline prices have been declining, which gives consumers more disposable income and spending at all levels seems to be strong. Compared with the previous year, consumer demand in the retail and catering sectors was better during the Christmas and New Year season, benefiting supermarkets and restaurants.

The market imported a significantly large quantity of shrimp during the first nine months of 2014. Cumulative imports till September 2014 were by 44 000 tonnes or 12% more than the same period last year; the import value was 38% higher reaching USD 4.8 billion.

India, again, was the leading supplier with an 18.6% share in the total supply of imported shrimp. About 46% of shrimp imported from Indian were peeled products, which are 5 148 tonnes more from the same period last year. Ecuador also supplied more peeled shrimp (+4 813 tonnes) and so did Indonesia (+9 811 tonnes).

Imports were higher for larger sized shrimp as well while the cheaper small to medium sizes did not show significant increases during the period under review, indicating growing demand for larger and more expensive shrimp. Breaded shrimp imports also increased by 12%; supplies increased from China and Ecuador.

Meanwhile, the US Food and Drug Administration (US FDA) intensified its inspection of　imported shrimp. Reportedly, the FDA rejected 35 containers of shrimp in October 2014, because of the detection of higher than acceptable levels of antibiotic residue in farmed shrimp imported from Viet Nam, Malaysia, India and China.　

Europe

There has been little improvement in consumer demand throughout 2014 and shrimp imports into the EU increased only marginally (+4.3%) during the January-September 2014 time period compared with 2013.

Spain and Italy in particular increased imports by 3.7% and 10.5% respectively; but imports declined in France, Denmark and the UK.

With enhanced production of farmed shrimp, Ecuador, India, Viet Nam and Indonesia were able to export more, compared with 2013. Imports from India, however, slowed down during the last quarter of the year following several rejections of farmed shrimp by the EU Food and Veterinary Office because of the presence of unauthorized antibiotics in some shipments.

Despite the overall weakening in price during the last quarter of the year, lack of import demand made for slow Christmas sales.

For the wild caught shrimp, catches of Argentina red shrimp reached a record high in 2014, but prices remain firm because of increasing demand from East Asian markets.

In the Spanish market imports increased substantially from Latin America and also from India (+7%), Viet Nam (61%) and Iran (+30%), which were farmed white shrimp.

The rise in Italian imports can also be attributed to increased supplies from South America as well as from India and Viet Nam and some intra-EU imports.

Belgium was India’s largest market in the EU. Imports also increased from Bangladesh and Viet Nam into Belgium during the reporting period.

The import growth in Germany was marginal during the reporting period.

Asia and other markets

Shrimp demand was relatively strong in the non-traditional markets. China imported nearly 20% more shrimp during the first nine months of 2014, compared with the same period in 2013 and so did Republic of Korea (+6.6%), Malaysia (+7%), Mexico (+30%). In these markets shrimp imports generally entered the domestic trade. Industry sources indicated that the actual imports in China, particularly from Viet Nam and Myanmar are much higher than the official figures, resulting from unrecorded border trade.

Viet Nam also replaced China as the primary shrimp supplier to the market in the Republic of Korea.

Viet Nam, on the contrary, remained a strong importer of shrimp for reprocessing and re-exports. Compared with 2013, frozen shrimp imports into Viet Nam increased by 131% from Ecuador and by 166% from India during the period from January to September 2014 with a combined total of about 90 000 tonnes .

Direct imports of shrimp from India to China were lower than the previous year but indirect imports increased through Viet Nam, particularly for the shipments taking place through Hiphong port in northern Viet Nam. Indian shrimp exports to Viet Nam were also recorded higher at nearly 79 000 tonnes during the January-September 2014 period.

Latin America

Mexico is now importing more frozen shrimp than it exports as a result of EMS disease; imports increased by 30% from January to September 2014 against the same period in 2013 when a 48% decrease in production from 100 000 tonnes in 2012 to 52 000 tonnes in 2013 was reported. From Latin America, exports increased from Ecuador, Honduras, Guatemala, Nicaragua and Belize to Mexico; imports also took place from India, Iran, Viet Nam and Indonesia.

In Honduras, from January to October 2014 shrimp exports reached 11 236 tonnes, with a total value of USD 191.7 million. The volume predicted for the whole year is 14 436 tonnes, reaching USD 230 million in value, which would mean a 6% increase compared with 2013.

Mexico is the major importer of shrimp from Honduras (34%), followed by Europe (32%) and the USA (22%).

According to Ricardo Gomez, Executive Director of the National Aquaculture Association of Honduras (ANDAH), the quality of the shrimp produced in the country has made access to new markets like China, Hong Kong and Thailand possible. This is the reason why producers have planned an increase in production to meet the first shipments to be made in 2015.

From December 2012 to December 2014 prices of all sizes of shrimp fluctuated because of EMS disease. Buyers feared shortages in supply, which resulted in an increase in demand, causing prices to rise. Later, prices fell as a result of an increase in production in Latin America and because buyers had already filled their inventories and stopped buying.

Between January and October 2014 Nicaraguan shrimp exports to France totaled more than USD 18 million in value, a 92% increase compared with the same period in 2013, when total exports reached USD 9.5 million, according to a report in la prensa.com.ni.

Outlook

Farmed shrimp production is seasonally low in Asia from November until March and generally prices remain firm during this period. However, since October, shrimp prices on the global market have not improved much and the prices are showing signs of softening further because demand is poor, particularly from the USA, which is holding large stocks. However, raw material supply is low as it is the off season. Hence trade direction remains uncertain in the short term.

Industry sources indicate that supplies of large sized shrimp, in particular, will be low during the first quarter of 2015.

In the USA market procurement for Lent in March and April will depend on the available stocks in the market, which will again set the price trend until the next season begins in April. The market will also monitor the supply and demand pattern in East Asia during the Lunar New Year celebrations in February.