After Atlantic mackerel reached a record for landings in 2014, Kontali reports that landings have declined in 2015, and a further decline is expected in 2016. With a downward trend in global supplies of Atlantic mackerel expected, there will be a corresponding increase in prices, especially for Norwegian products, though this also has to do with the fluctuations in exchange rates. Greenland and the Faroe Islands are strengthening their positions in the main markets.

Trade

Norwegian mackerel exports fell by 11.7% by volume and 7.4% by value, indicating that prices went up. There were setbacks in the major markets. Exports to Japan declined by 17% to 60 300 tonnes, and to China by almost 40% to 49 000 tonnes. Exports to Nigeria were also down, while exports to the Netherlands increased from 35 900 tonnes in 2014 to 48 000 tonnes in 2015. On a positive note, figures for January and February indicate that Norwegian pelagic exports are bouncing back in 2016.

Supplies to the EU market from Norway, Iceland, the Faroe Islands and Greenland have grown quite dramatically in recent years, from about 20 000 tonnes in 2008 to over 160 000 tonnes in 2014. In 2015, there was a decline in mackerel imports to roughly 146 000 tonnes. However, the main supplier, Norway, registered increased shipments in both 2014 and 2015 2015 showed a declining import trend for mackerel to Asian markets. In 2014, total shipments from Norway, the EU, Iceland and the Faroe Islands reached over 240 000 tonnes, while in 2015 shipments from these suppliers dropped to just over 175 000 tonnes. Norway is also the dominant supplier to Asian markets.

The African markets for mackerel have been slightly up and down. Shipments from Norway, the EU, Iceland and the Faroe Islands peaked in 2014 at almost 300 000 tonnes, then dropped back to slightly over 250 000 tonnes in 2015. The main supplier of mackerel to African markets was the EU.

The Russian ban on imports from several western countries has had a damaging effect on the mackerel trade. Firstly, total Russian imports have declined markedly, from almost 110 000 tonnes in 2013 to under 60 000 tonnes in 2015. Secondly, some of the previously largest suppliers - especially Norway and Ireland - have all but disappeared from Russian trade. Imports to a great extent have been taken over by the Faroe Islands, and to a lesser extent by Greenland

German imports of frozen mackerel declined from 27 000 tonnes in 2014 to 23 800 tonnes in 2015 (-11.9%). The Netherlands became the largest supplier, pushing the Faroe Islands and the UK to fourth and second place on the list of the largest suppliers.

Prices

Prices for frozen Atlantic mackerel have fluctuated a great deal in 2015, actually beginning prior to 2015 when a major drop was registered in the middle of 2014. However, it is mainly prices for larger sizes (>600 g) that have varied, while smaller sizes (<600 g) have been quite stable, although on a slightly declining trend since April 2015. For 2016, it is expected that mackerel prices will climb moderately again due to declining supplies.