Mapping Climate Change Vulnerability and Impact Scenarios: a Guide-book for Sub-National Planners (MAP_CCVIS)

This guidebook is part of a series of publications UNDP is developing under its Territorial Approach to Climate Change (TACC) platform to provide guidance to regional governments on climate change planning. Its specific objective is to support sub-national areas (“territories”) to become resilient to anticipated climate change by enhancing the understanding of sub-national planners of the nature of vulnerability to climate change. This understanding may help them to incorporate climate change adaptation options into relevant “no-regrets” development strategies.      

The guidebook explains in clear language the scientific consensus about the phenomena, trends, likelihood and potential impacts of climate change on agriculture, forestry, ecosystems, water resources, human health, industry, settlement and society at large. It explains the components of vulnerability (hazards and perturbations, sensitivity and adaptive capacity) and provides guidance on the procedures to follow in order to assess each of the components that make up vulnerability and on how to integrate and map the results, using a 4-step approach.

Step 1 looks at determining and projecting hazards and sensitivity to climate change, by evaluating meteorological data and both climate and socio-economic model outputs, taking into account various GCM models and emission scenarios. Step 2 elaborates on how to assess and project adaptive capacity, suggesting a more qualitative approach that relies on expert judgment. Step 3 focuses on how to integrate the results of Steps 1 and 2, leading to the production of alternative maps of vulnerability to climate change (based on present conditions and various scenarios of future projected changes) for use in sub-national planning. Step 4 shows how vulnerability maps are necessary prerequisites for the more normative and politicized subsequent decision-making processes that are required to prioritize vulnerabilities within the sub-national territory and identify appropriate adaptation responses.