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El Niño

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El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon, in which surface waters of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become unusually warm and cause changes in weather patterns around the world. On average, it re-occurs every 2 to 7 years and typically lasts 9-12 months. Since El Niño can often be predicted months in advance, has a slow onset and a regular pattern, it is possible to design anticipatory actions and prepare emergency responses well ahead of time.

El Niño-induced climate hazards pose high risks to food security. By disrupting rainfall and temperature patterns, it may strongly impact agriculture and rural livelihoods. Farmers, pastoralists, fishers and other small-scale producers bear the most direct and immediate impacts of climate shocks such as drought and floods. Effective anticipatory actions must therefore concentrate on preventing damage and loss to crops, livestock, productive lands, waters and infrastructure to protect food at its source. This not only safeguards local food supply but also mitigates wider effects on communities, local economies and humanitarian aid requirements. 

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Historical El Niño trends

Historical El Niño trends

In parts of Southeast Asia, El Niño typically results in below-normal rainfall, especially during the height of the monsoon season (June-September) in much of South Asia. The phenomenon may also bring drier weather in some of the Pacific islands, threatening food and water shortages. Meanwhile, in Central Asia it’s usually associated with above-average rainfall, which can trigger floods and landslides, washing away seeds and destroying crops and livestock.

El Niño has generally brought above-average rainfall between October and December in the Horn of Africa. This can cause flooding and landslides, impacting agriculture and increasing the risk of disease. Below-average rainfall is observed in the western unimodal parts of East Africa (western Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, western Kenya) between July and September. Across most of southern Africa, there has been reduced rainfall attributed to El Niño between November and March in past years, coinciding with the main cropping season. This could impact crop prospects and livestock productivity, exacerbating the situation in countries facing domestic food supply challenges and high levels of food insecurity. In West Africa and the Sahel, El Niño has historically brought below-average rainfall conditions between July and September, coinciding with the main agricultural season. This could worsen the situation in countries facing domestic food supply challenges and increasing reliance on imports amid high global food prices.

In the northern part of South America, El Niño results in below-average rainfall between June and the following March. In Central America, particularly in the Dry Corridor, El Niño is associated with dry conditions between June and December, potentially affecting the end of the primera season and the performance of the postrera season between September and December. The primera is the main season for maize and agricultural season in general in most of the countries in the region. 

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Key publications

Anticipatory action for El Niño in Latin America and the Caribbean

This good practice factsheet documents FAO’s anticipatory action in response to El Niño across eight countries in Latin America and the Caribbean between June 2023 and February 2024. 

El Niño 2023–2024: Evidence from FAO's anticipatory action interventions, May 2025

Ahead of the 2023–2024 El Niño-induced hazards, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) implemented anticipatory actions in 24 countries, reaching 1.7 million people with timely and preventive support.

Publication
El Niño: Anticipatory Action and Response Plan, October 2023–March 2024

The latest forecasts point to a greater than 80 percent chance of El Niño continuing through March–May 2024, following declaration of the onset of El Niño conditions in early July 2023 by the World Meteorological Organization.

Publication
El Niño: Anticipatory Action and Response Plan, August–December 2023

There is a greater than 90 percent chance that El Niño will continue through the end of 2023, and international climate agencies forecast a moderate to strong El Niño continuing into 2024.

Multimedia

Video
Michel Jarraud discusses El Niño

Secretary-General Emeritus of the WMO explains how El Niño forms and the impact it has on food production and security all over the world.

Anticipatory Action in Timor-Leste: Bracing for Drought

As Timor-Leste shows signs of drought linked to El Niño, fears of food shortages are growing.