Reference Date: 15-September-2026

Wheat crop production forecast above‑average level in 2025/26

Harvesting of the 2025/26 spring wheat crop, accounting for about 20 percent of annual production, is ongoing and is expected to finalize in September 2026. The area planted is estimated at an average level, mainly reflecting adequate soil moisture conditions at planting time. Precipitation amounts were generally average to above‑average across most parts of the country between March and August 2026 and, together with adequate irrigation water availability, supported favourable yield prospects in most wheat‑producing areas. Elevated fertilizer prices, associated with shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, increased production costs and constrained fertilizer application in some areas, while fuel‑related disruptions are expected to increase harvesting and transport costs, negatively affecting farmers’ incomes. The 2025/26 winter wheat crop, accounting for about 80 percent of annual production and predominantly irrigated, was harvested by June 2026, with production estimated at an above‑average level. Despite dry weather conditions between October and December 2025, above‑average precipitation amounts during the first quarter of 2026 and adequate soil moisture provided by spring snowmelt supported crop development. By contrast, production in some rainfed northern and southern parts of the country is estimated at below‑average levels, mainly reflecting rainfall deficits that persisted until April 2026 and constrained both planting operations and crop development.

Weather forecasts indicate a high likelihood of above‑average precipitation amounts across large parts of the country during the last quarter of 2026, associated with the prevailing El Niño event, which are expected to support the establishment of the 2026/27 winter crops, to be planted from October 2026 onwards.

Above‑average cereal import requirements forecast in 2026/27

Cereal import requirements, mainly wheat flour, are forecast at 4.6 million tonnes in the 2026/27 marketing year (July/June), about 7 percent above average, reflecting increased domestic demand associated with population growth and the large influx of returnees from Pakistan and the Islamic Republic of Iran. The country relies on wheat flour imports, largely due to limited domestic milling capacity. Most imports are sourced from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, the Russian Federation and Turkmenistan, with imported wheat flour commonly blended with domestic flour to improve protein content.

Wheat flour prices higher year‑on‑year in August 2026

Retail prices of wheat flour, country’s main staple food, generally increased during the last quarter of 2025 amid concerns about the impact of dry weather conditions on the 2026 winter crop production. Subsequently, prices remained generally stable between January and August 2026, despite some month‑on‑month fluctuations, and were between about 10 and 20 percent higher year‑on‑year in several markets across the country. The elevated price levels largely reflect high production and transport cost, compounded by reduced informal trade flows following the closure of the border with Pakistan in September 2025.

About 13.8 million people acutely food insecure between April and November 2026

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis , about 13.8 million people (about 28 percent of analysed total population) are projected to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) from April to September 2026, including about 2.9 million people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). This marks an improvement compared to the 17.4 million people estimated to have faced acutely food insecurity between November 2025 and March 2026, largely reflecting increased food availability from the 2026 main wheat harvest and the seasonal recovery of income‑earning opportunities in the agricultural and construction sectors after the winter period. However, the number of acutely food insecure people remains high, reflecting persistent economic challenges, high unemployment rates and a substantial reduction in humanitarian assistance in 2026. As of late July 2026, about 2.65 million Afghan nationals returned to the country, following intensified deportations of foreign nationals without valid documentation. Most returnees are living in camps and rely heavily on humanitarian assistance to meet their basic needs.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .