Reference Date: 31-December-2025

Paddy production forecast at above‑average level in 2025

Harvesting of the 2025 Aman paddy crop, which accounts for about 35 percent of the annual output, is expected to finalize at the end of December 2025 and production is forecast at an above‑average level, mostly due to anticipated bumper yields supported by favourable weather conditions. Harvesting of the 2025 Boro paddy crop, accounting for about 55 percent of the annual output, finalized in June 2025 and production is estimated at a record of 31.7 million tonnes, reflecting large plantings in response to high prices at sowing time and bumper yields owing to favourable weather conditions. Harvesting of the 2025 Aus paddy crop, accounting for about 10 percent of the annual output, concluded in July 2025 and production is estimated at 4.5 million tonnes, about 9 percent below the average, following crop losses caused by flood events between May and July 2025. Overall, aggregate paddy production in 2025 is forecast at an above‑average level of 62 million tonnes.

The 2025 maize cropping season finalized in July and production is estimated at a record level of 5.3 million tonnes, mostly due to large sowings driven by robust domestic demand and elevated prices during the planting period. Favourable weather conditions and widespread use of high‑yielding seed varieties supported above‑average yields.

The production of the 2025 wheat crop, harvested in April, is officially estimated at a near-average level of 1.1 million tonnes.

Above‑average cereal import requirements forecast in 2025/26

Cereal imports consist mostly of wheat, that cover 80 percent of the country’s consumption needs, plus minor quantities of rice and maize. In the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June), cereal import requirements are forecast at about 10 million tonnes, about 10 percent above the five‑year average. Imports of wheat are forecast at an above‑average level of 6.9 million tonnes, driven by increased consumption associated with a gradual shift in local diet preferences. Consumption of wheat flour products has tripled since the year 2000 and currently it accounts for about 10 percent of the total average calories’ intake. Imports of maize are forecast at a near‑average level of 1.6 million tonnes. Import needs for rice in calendar year 2025 are forecast at an above‑average level of 1.8 million tonnes, following the government’s decision to reduce rice import duties from 63.2 percent to just a 2 percent service charge on 10 August 2025, in response to elevated domestic rice prices.

About 16.6 million people acutely food insecure between May and December 2025

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, about 16.6 million people (16 percent of the population) were projected to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) from May to December 2025, similar to the period from April to October 2024. The main drivers of acute food insecurity are the negative effects of floods and Cyclone Remal, which occurred in late 2024, on the livelihoods of about 19 million people which resulted in severe localized losses of crops, livestock, food stocks and agricultural infrastructure.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .