Reference Date: 03-October-2025

Favourable production prospects for 2025 main Meher season cereal crops

Harvesting of the 2025 main Meher season cereal crops, planted in June and July in key producing areas of western Oromiya, western Amhara and Benishangul Gumuz regions, has just begun and will conclude in December. The June to September Kiremt rainy season was characterized by below‑average rainfall amounts in June, which delayed planting activities and affected the germination of early‑planted crops. Average to above‑average rainfall amounts between July and mid‑September improved vegetation conditions which, according to remote sensing data, are currently good across most Meher cropping areas (ASI map). As a result, cereal production prospects are generally favourable. However, localized shortfalls in cereal production are expected in some southwestern agropastoral areas due to floods.

The secondary Belg season harvest was concluded in July in southern Tigray, eastern Amhara, eastern Oromiya, Central Ethiopia and Sidama regions, and it had a poor performance on account of significant rainfall deficits during the February to May rainy season.

Unfavourable weather conditions in pastoral areas affecting livestock

In southeastern pastoral areas of southern Oromiya and southern Somali regions, the March to May Gu/Genna rainy season had an erratic spatial distribution. Below‑average seasonal rainfall amounts were received in several areas, where rangeland resources entered the July to September dry season without having been fully regenerated. In these areas, as of mid‑September, vegetation conditions were below average. Weather forecasts point to below‑average precipitation amounts during the October to December Deyr/Hageya rainy season, with a likely negative impact on livestock body conditions and on the availability of livestock products.

In northern pastoral areas of Afar Region, the failure of the February‑May 2025 Diraac‑Sugum rains led to critically low pasture and water availability, resulting in livestock emaciation and deaths. Subsequently, the 2025 Karan/Karma rainy season, spanning from July to September, has been characterized by below‑average rainfall amounts in July which improved substantially in August and early September, offsetting the early season moisture deficits. However, the regeneration of rangeland resources was only partial and, as of mid‑September, pasture availability was still insufficient and livestock body conditions were below average.

Maize prices higher year‑on‑year

Prices of locally produced maize increased in most monitored markets by 20‑44 percent between January and July 2025, as seasonal patterns were compounded by the continuous depreciation of the national currency which inflated fuel prices and transport costs. Prices levelled off in August as traders released their stocks ahead of the 2025 Meher harvest. August prices were 5‑20 percent higher on yearly basis.

Difficult food security situation expected in late 2025 and early 2026 in pastoral areas

In western crop producing areas, the food security situation has recently begun to improve as newly harvested 2025 Meher crops are increasing domestic availability. By contrast, in southern and southeastern pastoral areas, the food security situation is unlikely to improve in late 2025 if the weather forecasts pointing to below‑average October‑December Deyr/Hageya will materialize. In this case, these areas will face a harsh dry season, leading to a deterioration of the food security situation at the beginning of next year. Food security is expected to deteriorate also in northern pastoral areas, where livestock is entering the October 2025 February 2026 dry season with below‑average body conditions, with a negative impact on the availability of livestock products and on herders’ incomes due to low animal market prices.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .