Reference Date: 25-August-2025

Drought conditions, economic crisis and conflict severely affected cereal output in 2025

Cereal harvest was completed in July 2025 and production is estimated at about 90 000 tonnes, nearly 50 percent below the average. Localized conflict disrupted agricultural activities across key producing regions in 2024 and 2025. According to the Rapid needs assessment on the impact of conflict on agriculture , conducted by FAO, large number of households have been displaced and had no or limited access to their lands during planting season in November 2024, particularly in the southern region of the country. This significantly reduced the extent of the area planted. In addition, dry weather conditions and high temperatures severely affected crop yields. According to geospatial data, cumulative rainfall amounts during the winter season between December 2024 and February 2025 were more than 50 percent below the average in key producing governorates of Bekaa and Baalbek‑Hermel, severely affecting soil moisture levels. High input costs, including seeds, fertilizers and pesticides, coupled with low farmers’ income levels, further exacerbated production shortfalls.

Wheat import requirements forecast at above‑average level in 2025/26, amid economic uncertainty

Despite the unfavourable 2024 wheat production, according to official customs data , wheat imports for the 2024/25 marketing year (July/June) are estimated at about 600 000 tonnes, 7 percent below the average. The protracted conflict and the economic slowdown have reduced foreign currency earnings. Remittances, a key contributor to the country’s Gross domestic product (GDP), dropped by 13 percent year‑on‑year in 2024. The tourism sector, another key contributor to the GDP, recorded a sharp drop of 32 percent in tourist arrivals in 2024, compared to the previous year, indicating limited foreign currency inflow.

Wheat import requirements for the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June) are preliminarily forecast at about 8 percent above average, considering the anticipated shortfall in domestic production. However, import volumes will depend on the availability of foreign currency reserves and international wheat price developments.

Conflict‑driven damages and ongoing economic crisis continue to affect food security in 2025

Protracted conflict-driven damage to infrastructure and agriculture, coupled with population displacements and the ongoing economic crisis continue to affect livelihoods, worsening food security conditions among both Lebanese residents and refugees.

Findings from the latest Data in Emergencies Monitoring (DIEM‑Monitoring) Survey, conducted across 25 districts between November and December 2024, show that about 40 percent of agricultural households were affected by the conflict, with southern districts including Bent Jbeil, Marjaayoun and Sour among the hardest hit. Out of the affected households, 75 percent were displaced, 98 percent of crop producers anticipated significant production losses and 67 percent reported losing adult livestock or beehives. Nearly one‑third of households faced moderate to severe food insecurity, with Baalbeck and Marjaayoun recording the highest rates.

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, nearly 1.2 million people are projected to face “Crisis” and “Emergency” acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) from July to October 2025, including 41 000 in IPC Phase 4 “Emergency”.

Despite stabilization of the national currency in early 2024, following a sharp depreciation since 2020, the average annual food inflation during the January to June 2025 period remained high at about 20 percent, affecting access to food especially for most vulnerable households.

The monthly cost of Food Survival Minimum Expenditure Basket (SMEB) per person surged by 13 percent in May 2025 compared to the same month in 2024, reaching LBP 3.53 million (USD 39.2). Despite the government’s approval of a 56 percent increase in the minimum monthly salary, from LBP 18 million (USD 201) to LBP 28 million (USD 312), effective from July 2025, to mitigate inflationary pressures caused by the ongoing financial crisis, households’ purchasing power remains significantly constrained as food prices and other essential costs continue to outpace wage increases.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/.

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/.

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .